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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Bovespa Index

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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93726
Sergey Golubev 2016.04.10 19:42 

Bovespa Index Technical Analysis 2016, 10.04 - 17.04: branging bullish with ascending triangle pattern to be formed for the bullish trend to be continuing

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA (100 SMA) and 200-day SMA (200 SMA) for the bullish market condition with the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 52,490 resistance level located far above 100/200 SMA ranging area in the primary bullish trend, and
  • 47,920 support level located near and above 100/200 SMA on the border between the primary bullish and the ranging bearish trend on the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 52,490 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 47,920 support so the reversal from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition will be started with 42,120 bearish target to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
52,49047,920
N/A42,120


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 47,920 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 52,490 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93726
Sergey Golubev 2016.04.13 13:45  

Bovespa Index Pivot Points Analysis - breaking key resistance to R1 level as a target

W1 price broke Central yearly Pivot at 48767 for the primary bullish market condition: the price is bearish 52490 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing with R1 level at 54338 as the next bearish target.

InstrumentS1 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
Bovespa Index 38313
48767
54338


Trend:

  • W1 - bullish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93726
Sergey Golubev 2016.04.17 11:51  

Bovespa Index Technical Analysis 2016, 17.04 - 24.04: bullish ranging with narrow levels

H4 price is on bullish market condition located to be above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within narrow support/resistance levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or to the secondary correction to be started.

Chinkou Span line is above the price for the ranging bullish by direction, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price movement as the secondary ranging condition to be continuing.

If H4 price will break 53,185 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish condition will be started.
If H4 price will break 54,895 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 54,895 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 53,185 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish rally to the bullish reversal
Resistance
Support
54,89553,185
N/A
52,490

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93726
Sergey Golubev 2016.04.29 13:19  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.29 13:18

USD/RUB (Russia) is at 5-month low: 64.15

GBP/USD (The UK) is at 3-month high: 1.4638

USD/JPY (Japan) is at 7-month low: 107.00

USD/CAD (Canada) is at 9-month low: 1.2504

NZD/USD (New Zealand) is at 10-month low: 0.6988

USD/TRY (Turkey) is at 8-month low: 2.8050

Bovespa Index (Brazil) is at 10-month high


Apple Shares is at 10-month low: 96.50

Brent Crude Oil is at 5-month high: 47.80



Rogerio Figurelli
Moderator
39666
Rogerio Figurelli 2016.04.30 15:44  

Hi Sergey, great analysis here.

As you must know, all this Bovespa Index movement is mainly caused by the expectation of impeachment of the President of Brazil.

I know this is a fundamental information and off topic, but only to think of the cause and effect relationship, next week and first half of May we will have important decisions of the Brazilian Senate that will impact further on that strength.

Best Regards. 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93726
Sergey Golubev 2016.04.30 16:32  
Rogerio Figurelli:

Hi Sergey, great analysis here.

As you must know, all this Bovespa Index movement is mainly caused by the expectation of impeachment of the President of Brazil.

I know this is a fundamental information and off topic, but only to think of the cause and effect relationship, next week and first half of May we will have important decisions of the Brazilian Senate that will impact further on that strength.

Best Regards. 

Yes, I know that. But the Index was turned to the primary bullish in the medium-term situation (D1 timeframe), and it was turned to the bullish (for the 3rd time sorry) in the long-term for W1 timeframe.

Any expetation is good (expectation for impeachment, and expectation against it) if it is helping to turn the Country Index to the global bullish market condition :)



Rogerio Figurelli
Moderator
39666
Rogerio Figurelli 2016.04.30 17:37  
Sergey Golubev:
Yes, I know that. But the Index was turned to the primary bullish in the medium-term situation (D1 timeframe), and it was turned to the bullish (for the 3rd time sorry) in the long-term for W1 timeframe.

Any expetation is good (expectation for impeachment, and expectation against it) if it is helping to turn the Country Index to the global bullish market condition :)



For sure, in my opinion reach 60.000 points will be decisive to indicate this alignment with global busllish movement and MN1 timeframe (below) can be more useful now for such analysis.

 

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

IBOV, MN1, 2016.04.30

XP Investimentos CCTVM S/A, MetaTrader 5, Real

IBOV, MN1, 2016.04.30, XP Investimentos CCTVM S/A, MetaTrader 5, Real


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93726
Sergey Golubev 2016.04.30 18:03  

Yes, that's right - monthly timeframe is the better in this case.

If we analyse it using simple moving averages (by 100 period SMA and by 200 period SMA) so the price is still inside the ranging condition waiting for direction:


If we look at Ichimoku monthly chart so we see about breakout to be started on open monthly bar (Chinkou Span is breaking the price to above), and the price is breaking 'reversal' Senkou Span on open bar as well.


So, the monthly price is still on the ranging condition with the good tendency/possibility for the bullish reversal in the next few months for example.

Rogerio Figurelli
Moderator
39666
Rogerio Figurelli 2016.04.30 21:21  
Sergey Golubev:

Yes, that's right - monthly timeframe is the better in this case.

If we analyse it using simple moving averages (by 100 period SMA and by 200 period SMA) so the price is still inside the ranging condition waiting for direction:


If we look at Ichimoku monthly chart so we see about breakout to be started on open monthly bar (Chinkou Span is breaking the price to above), and the price is breaking 'reversal' Senkou Span on open bar as well.


So, the monthly price is still on the ranging condition with the good tendency/possibility for the bullish reversal in the next few months for example.

Very good, it's a long time (100 and 200 SMA month data), what broker server are you using for this Bovespa chart (if you can share this information)?
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93726
Sergey Golubev 2016.04.30 21:35  
This server:



I know nothing about them but I tried to find something after Alpari removed the most of the indicatives and shares so I had to find some server in MT4 which is providing indexes and shares.
I did not install new MT4 instance - I just used same one - i opened demo account by searching new server inside same MT4 instance.

It may be good to have indexes and shares in MT5 because in my opinion - MT5 is more suitable for technical analysis for example (MT4 is more used for trading for now).

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
93726
Sergey Golubev 2016.04.30 22:31  

Because you know ... there are a lot of good technical/fundamental analysis for some shares (for Apple etc), etc ... but they are using some strange platforms or websites with "web platform" (not web terminal - we are having web terminal here ... they are using some "web platforms" just to look at some price (our web terminal is for trading too so ...).

So, my dream is the following: why do I need to go to some other "data sources"/"web platforms" just to create some technical analysis for something?
I think - everything should be here as MT4 and/or MT5 for example.

Because what is the technical analysis?

  • any technical analysis can be 'transformed' onto pending orders ... so it may be some signals but for one trade in a week/month as a pending orders for buy or sell  for example (just for example only)/ Of course, no one will be interested in buy stop and sell stop orders delivered once in a week/month as the signal ... but if we are talking about technical analysis so this is completely an other science/service/profession ... i mean - any technical analysis is some advice for real investors for example.
  • good developed technical analysis system = trading system
  • manual trading system based on good developed technical analysis system = good automatic trading system (some EA for example)
  • investing opportunities, and so on

Because what is the Forbes doing (why they are very popular one)? They are doing the following:

  • they are evaluating some index (S&P 500, or any) - bearish, bullish, or whatever;
  • they are estimating the shares which can be the engines for bearish and the engines for bullish (within same index);
  • after that - they are making some recommendations for the investors concerning what to buy and what to sell (shares) now.

If we can do it using just Metatrader only (and just one Metatrader instance' installation) so it will be very good.

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