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Iran's central bank has been under sanctions for 20 years (the states pocketed 2 billion quid that belonged to the Central Bank of Iran) and people still live. I am now wondering where the retaliatory sanctions are and how they will affect the market. So far, I think we should refrain from buying financial sectors and have a closer look at commodity producers and steel makers. Producers of fertilizers (e.g. Phosagro) feel fine. Europe wants to eat too, and due to higher gas prices, fertilizer prices have risen in Europe. They use natural gas to produce nitrogen fertilisers. (As an alternative to coke gas, a coal from which Europe has recently refused to actively use, and the conversion to a new raw material will cost large amounts of time and finances) A nitrogen is ammonium nitrate, ammonia and more raw material for chemical industry - the production of nitric acid. Nitric acid is the basic component in production of explosives, sulphuric acid, soda and various solvents. So, to ruin the agricultural and chemical sectors is not just shooting yourself in the foot, it is a straight shot in the head.
Well, people in North Korea live ok 😁
And it is probably incorrect to equate account freezing with the concept of pocketing, as ownership of money does not seem to be transferred.
Sanctions reviewer:https://www.rbc.ru/business/26/02/2022/621a20109a79471f8295dade?from=column_1
I agree about metallurgists and commodity producers, the only question is whether the market will give a good price again and under what conditions, buying right now after a bounce is not a good idea.
There are different opinions about the effect of a blocked central bank, on the one hand there are such wonderful factors as considerable amount of accumulated reserves and rather low level of debt to GDP, it is in favour of institutional stability and room for manoeuvre, on the other hand historically there are no cases when during a crisis the main victims would not be households and citizens, it is a historical constant of the region, one of the possible extreme scenarios are described here: https://www.bfm.ru/news/493963
The most important news will probably be when/if they start doing currency repos or just major lending to large state companies to convert into currency, last time the example of Rosneft showed how wildly the exchange rate can fly, now while the Central Bank has announced ruble repos...
Given that it is in the interests of influential exporters and the state budget to have a slow devaluation of the national currency, plus given the previous statements of Togo-Kogo-Name on this issue (an old Lifenews interview) - there is almost no doubt that a staggered progressive devaluation is most likely... the main thing is not to buy with the panicking crowd... growth projection from the 2014-2015 peak area gives a 200 level and an average of 140-150, but obviously some more news/drivers are needed, no such yet...
To the previous question about chips: TMSC is likely to execute sanctions, so fabless national electronics are under attack too.
Next, the interesting question that sometimes comes up about the possibility of default, pointing out that credit swaps (CDS which) have taken off at the third cosmic speed, but they are only instruments ofThe problem is that they have been going up great since January, sovereign debt insurance is very uncomfortable for investors, it's premium=costs which the buyer of the contract pays to the seller for insurance, but that in itself is not yet a sure sign of default, in Turkey insurance rates are even higher, but in fact even the current historically very high CDS rates are not so bad, and the bad will be when/if it reaches 20-30% or higher, then the hardcore will come...
In the mega-crisis year of 2008, the CDS reached 10%, just for the history, now there is no reason to worry about default, considering that the reserves now exceed the external debt, for example, and now the consolidated world partners probably have no strategic goal to bankrupt the Northern Eurasia region.
But shutting down SWIFT and isolating state banks is likely to be hard, and the chain of consequences will be very diverse, though opinions differ too:
For the time being I am looking at a BAY, but definitely with a withdrawal to a CU
It's down too low
--
wait for 03/03/2022
I think there is a chance of an uptrend
On scattered news data downside probability in the short term.
According to scattered news reports, the probability is down in the short term.
Yes, the fun is still to come...
According to the contrarian principle of investing it follows: the worse the better, capitalists should look for the gloomiest situations to buy what has fallen harder but is still viable, and conversely for a favourable consensus a high price will have to be paid.
Yes, there will be more fun...
According to the contrarian principle of investing it follows: the worse the better, capitalists should look for the gloomiest situations to buy what has fallen harder but still has viability, and conversely for a favourable consensus a high price will have to be paid.
Only from a trading perspective.
Sharp and inadequately priced assets should be traded with the prospect for next years.
Just all these trades will pay off well over the years.
...
If tomorrow the APPLE iPhone suddenly becomes worth 0.50 cents, for whatever reason, it might be worth buying a couple of cases.
OPS, URGENT!
Media: talks looming, CELL signal could be abruptly cancelled.
OPS, URGENT!
Media: talks looming, CELL signal could be abruptly cancelled.
Negotiations have been cancelled.
I don't think so.
looking for another location, no deal yet
I wonder how the partial SWIFT shutdown will be assessed at the opening tomorrow...