On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 37

 
Vyacheslav Nekipelov:

I also opened down on the pound recently.

On the eu, I took a little bit in the buy in the morning....

On the contrary, in general, if you look at the direction of the TS entries. Just for the record.

It does not contradict anything. At any point in time on any pair, the decision to buy and the decision to sell are equally valid. The question is what to want from the trade (how much profit, and over how much time).
 
Mikhael1983:
It does not contradict anything. At any point in time, for any pair, both the decision to buy and the decision to sell are equally valid.


How it is! So, eurusd = buy, gbpusd = sell, or vice versa? Only the lots will be different.

 
Evgeniy Chumakov:


How's that! So you can open eurusd = buy , gbpusd = sell or vice versa? Only the lots will be different.

You can do it with the same lots. For example, if I had opened in the opposite direction, I would fix the profit now. In reality, I would take a profit later, because I opened in the opposite direction.
 
Mikhael1983:
The lots are the same, too. For example, if I had opened in the opposite direction, I would have taken a profit now. In reality I would fix the profit later, because I opened in the opposite direction.


In this case you can open in two ways and take the profit that was opened earlier and then close orders that will be closed later. In this case maybe the drawdown will be less ?

 
Mikhael1983:
The lots are the same. If I had an opposite opening I would fix profit now. In reality I will fix profit later, because I opened in the opposite direction.

It's the same for trading any pair. Open at any time in any direction. There will always be profit. The only question is in a minute, a year or 100 years. Another question is whether the deposit will hold out.

GBPUSD - 2.8*EURUSD does not increase the chances of success. But it does not decrease them either. For example, the pound may very easily fall down or on the contrary, it may rise due to Brexit news or any other reasons, regardless of a magic synthetic.

In general, imho, in financial markets the more accurate the forecasting is, the longer the horizon (frame). The most accurate prediction is several ticks - tens of ticks ahead. It is approximately like with the weather - the most accurate forecast is for a day or two, and what will be in a week or two is written with a stick in the mud. The fact that it will be summer in six months after winter is obvious.

 
Mikhael1983:
The lots are the same, too. For example, if I had opened in the opposite direction, I would have taken a profit now. In reality I would fix the profit later, because I opened in the opposite direction.
Overexposure. And I thought they have really invented something interesting.
 
secret:
Overstaying. I was beginning to think they'd actually invented something interesting.
There is no overshoot whatsoever. However, it is quite obvious that for any value of mismatch, we can only confidently say that the mismatch will return to zero, and there is no prohibition to increase it even more. If this is overconsumption for you, it is quite strange.
 
secret:
Overexposure. And I was beginning to think that something really interesting has been invented.

That is why pair trading was invented, so that in case of unsuccessful entering one can sit and wait for profit. Moreover, you can comfortably wait out the trading in pair trading and use hedging that considerably decreases drawdowns. Pair trading can also save you from the collapse in case of the collapse in both pairs. This is often the case as pairs are interrelated.

 
khorosh:

And hedging, which substantially reduces drawdowns, allows you to sit comfortably in paired trading.

Hedging is not much different from locking, closing a position or substantially reducing it. When there is already a loss on open positions, hedging will not reduce it or take equity to profit.

 
Grigori.S.B:

Hedging is not much different from locking, closing a position or substantially reducing it. When there is already a loss on open positions, then hedging will not reduce it or take equity into profit.

Really?

Reason: