On the unequal probability of a price move up or down - page 28

 
Mikhael1983:
The EURGBP trade is represented as a pair of EURUSD and GBPUSD trades.


What if we take EURX and USDx indexes? Would that do the trick?

 
Evgeniy Chumakov:


How about the EURX and USDx indices? Would that do the trick?

I don't understand the question.
 
Mikhael1983:
I do not understand the question.


Well, there will be two rows instead of EURUSD and GBPUSD with EURX and USDX, will it be seen whether buying or selling EURUSD is more likely?

 
Evgeniy Chumakov:


Well there will also be two rows instead of EURUSD and GBPUSD there will be EURX and USDX , will it be visible at the end what is more likely to buy or sell EURUSD ?

The role X could be anything, if that is what you mean. Not necessarily the dollar.
 
Mikhael1983:
The role of X can be anything, if that's what you mean. Not necessarily the dollar.


Can your two trades of EURUSD and GBPUSD be expressed as EURGBP in one trade? Buy or sell EURGBP for example.

 
Evgeniy Chumakov:


Can your two trades of EURUSD and GBPUSD be expressed through EURGBP in one trade ? Buy or sell EURGBP for example.

Generally, no, sometimes, with a certain volume ratio, yes. On the contrary (a deal on EURUSD decomposed into a pair of deals on EUR/whatever and GBP/whatever) can always be done.
 
Mikhael1983:
Generally, no, sometimes, with a certain volume ratio, yes. On the contrary (euro-pound decompose into a pair of euro/something and pound/something trades) it is always possible.


That is, if we have two rows A and B whose ratio A/B = Price, then identifying the probability of price movement (up or down) will not work, if I understand correctly.

 
Evgeniy Chumakov:


That is, if we have two rows A and B whose ratio A/B = Price, it is not possible to detect the probability of a price movement (up or down), if I understand correctly.

Not in the general case (imagine that row B is a constant, in the sense that it consists of the same constants, it won't give you any additional information for your brain, right?).
 
How do you determine which pair to buy and which to sell and how do you calculate the lot? Isn't it possible to do the same with EURX and USDX?
 
Mikhael1983:
The EURGBP deal is represented as a pair of EURUSD and GBPUSD deals. So you have a silly overlap in the EURUSD part, on the one hand there is a EURUSD buy (explicitly) of 0.1, on the other hand there is a EURUSD sell of 0.07 (as part of a EURGBP sell of 0.07). Why you buy and sell EURUSD volume 0.07 at the same time and pay two spreads for de facto no trade at all - I don't know. You obviously have little understanding of what you are doing. You could have opened with 0.03 for EURUSD, and with 0.85*0.07 or 0.06 for GBPUSD. Not only would you save on the spread (if you can call saving avoiding the desire to pay double spread for nothing, not for trading, but generally just for the sake of better living for the brokerage company), but you would increase understanding of how EUR and GBP bought/sold relatively to each other thanks to observation in a clear form of a pair of transactions in one quote currency - dollar (no matter what).

Also, I don't want to offend, but just the state is about nothing. You demonstrate in real time. Announce what you did, bought, sold and then after a while close on the upside. Otherwise it doesn't count, it's easy to draw or show only the profitable part of the results )

I had a signal on these pairs and I didn't have one on EURUSD and GBPUSD at that time (not enough spread). I see what you mean, a profit on EURUSD and EURGBP is a bad profit, while EURUSD and GBPUSD are good.)) It's like saying that Russian gas is bad gas (the aggressor's gas)))) Well, I'll keep that in mind, enlightened).

Reason: