America's default, in Russian.
How much of this is possible? This morning, a colleague gave me the "good news".
as long as it is possible to start local wars.
until they raise interest rates, it is too early to talk about it.
How likely is that? A colleague broke the news this morning.
Actually, on Friday, Democrats and Republicans came to a consensus on the need to cut the budget by means of social subsidies. Another thing is that the budget for this year in the US has never been passed, and the figure in the presidential executive order that he has to draw up according to Friday's agreements cannot physically be met. That is to say, sooner or later they will override it and haggle in Congress to raise the bar again.
This is not a default yet. A default will begin when the US is unable to meet its debt obligations, even at the expense of the printing press. While they still have the ability to increase the money supply and the ability to raise the debt ceiling they also have some room to spare. No one knows how long until default. Maybe tomorrow will come, if for example Japan starts to sell American bonds and the rest follow suit. Or it could be several years from now. Simply put, a time bomb with an indefinite time frame. Once a few key factors get out of control at the same time, it will go off right away.
Some analogy with "safety" in a nuclear power plant. One force majeure factor is easily detected and eliminated. Several force majeure factors triggered simultaneously lead to an uncontrollable chain reaction.
Here are the evolutionary processes that will probably begin.
And here America can just send everyone away and say "we don't owe anything".
The strong don't have to repay debts to the weak.
It is not a default yet. A default will begin when the US is unable to meet its debt obligations, even through the printing press.
It is hard to imagine all the printing presses going out at once) and they can print as many of those dollars as they want for "export" without actually harming their own economy.
It's hard to imagine that all the printing presses will break down at once) and they can print as many of these dollars as they want for "export" without actually harming their own economy.
Who is going to take them? The whole world is starting to give up the dollar. China Russia, Europe also wants it but is afraid of it. Qadafi is being crushed for the same reason - the gold dinar. There is really no reason for conflict within Libya.
Nothing is going to happen. Everyone is so tied up in American currency that political laws, not financial laws, will apply. The whole world will rush to save America (read: its own skin) if anything happens.
Here are the evolutionary processes that will probably begin.
It's hard to imagine all the printing presses going out at once) and they can print as many of those dollars as they want for "export" without actually harming their own economy.
It was hard to imagine that the Japanese nuclear power plants would have an accident. They have operated for 40 years without any problems and now, instead of dealing with the consequences of the natural disaster, they are trying to deal with a man-made catastrophe. Japan went from being an economic "miracle" to a dead zone uninhabitable in one day. Previous natural disasters had been solved fairly quickly, i.e. within a year or two, and the infrastructure was already functioning.
It's not about the machines, it's about the buyers of US long-term bonds. If demand falls for one reason or another, the bubble will burst, no matter how thick-skinned it is. If it doesn't burst, it will deflate. Practically, one bogus system is trying to parasitise the others. But others are not fools either and want to live on debt, for example some troubled EU states, thereby breaking the US monopoly on the bogeyman. It is quite clear that everyone can not be a parasite in debt. That is, sooner or later "adverse" circumstances will converge, and the probability of such an event is not zero. And predicting the exact moment of such an event is not an easy task.
Nothing is going to happen. Everyone is so tied to US currency that political laws, not financial laws, will apply. The whole world will rush to save America (read: its own skin) if anything happens.
This American appeal to people like we are all on the Titanic and let us all act together is more frightening to others than it is encouraging to keep sailing. Many countries, especially China, are looking for a way out of the global bubble, although it is very problematic. As they say, if you do not jump in the boat, you may sink. And there are not enough boats for everyone.
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The previous title of the thread was Default on America.
How much of this is possible? This morning, a colleague "cheered up" with the news.