With central banks around the world devaluing major currencies such as the US dollar, Japanese Yen, and the euro, opportunities for higher
returns are available through investing in emerging market currencies. Investing in exotic currencies such as the Chinese renminbi or
Brazilian real may seem complicated, but with the help of this book we make it more accessible to investors of all sizes. The Definitive Guide
to Emerging Market Currencies covers the macroeconomic underpinnings foreign currency markets, the fundamental factors that define the
future strengthening of currencies in emerging markets, and how to trade these currencies. The book also goes into detail on the economic
fundamentals of every significantly liquid emerging market currency along with an investing outlook for each one. For those looking to
make money trading emerging market FOREX, or are just curious about emerging market currencies, this book is the best place to start. Even
stock market investors benefit from learning about these FOREX markets because currency fluctuations have a huge impact on investors'
total returns in any foreign country.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading
This is some advice made by Nicholas Pardini in November last year.
Nicholas Pardini is the founder and managing partner of investment firm Nomadic Capital Partners, which specializes in investing in
emerging and frontier markets around the globe. His book, “The Definitive Guide to Emerging Market Currencies,” was written in
response to his inability to find research on the subject.
best currencies for long term investors
Foreign exchange markets tend to be the domain for short-term technical and momentum based speculators. However, with central banks
around the world holding real interest rates negative and printing large quantities of money, investors’ home currencies in
developed nations such as the United States, Europe and Japan may not be a safe store of value.
Stretched valuations across bond and equity markets make this an apt time to take profits, but what currencies should investors hold their
cash? Here’s my top seven strongest currencies based on long-term economic fundamentals.
7) Korean won
South Korea has become a manufacturing powerhouse. The quality of Korean goods such as Samsung Electronics, Hyundai and Posco meets
and often exceeds Japanese competitors. In spite of a weak yen, South Korea maintains competitive advantage versus Japan. South
Korea’s fiscal health is also strong with a 35% debt to GDP, 3.3% GDP growth, and 3.8% current account surplus.
6) Malaysian ringgit
Malaysia is the only developed nation since its independence in 1957 that has not defaulted or experienced a full year of inflation above
20%. The Malaysian central bank has an excellent track record of keeping inflation low and exports of crude oil, palm oil,
minerals, and other natural resources keep foreign reserves well stocked. The tricky part for Western investors is that the
ringgit can only be traded via non-deliverable forwards due to capital controls left over from the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
5) Norwegian krone
Norway has the most stable currency in Europe. With oil exports, a high standard of living, a 13% current account surplus, and a debt to
GDP of just 28%, Norway is in excellent shape to maintain currency strength and hold off the structural problems of the rest of the
continent. Because Norway is not part of the EU, it can serve as a financial safe haven for investors if the European debt crisis
4) Chinese renminbi
China is transitioning from an export based economy to one that relies on more domestic consumption. Part of this transition will be
RMB appreciation as higher domestic purchasing power of imported goods such as food and energy will be needed to increase the
wealth of middle income Chinese and get them to spend money on local consumer goods and services. China has stockpiles of foreign
reserves and trade surpluses which will also hold up the renminbi as the government has been intervening less to keep the currency
down. The renminbi would be rated higher if it was not for strict capital controls.
3) Hong Kong dollar
The Hong Kong dollar is like the call option of currencies. It is pegged to a narrow band to the U.S. dollar, so downside risk is
limited. However, if trade pressures and a weak dollar break the peg, that the Hong Kong dollar has appreciation potential of
greater than 20% to match the recent gains of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar.
2) Singapore dollar
With increased disclosure in Switzerland, Singapore has become the new global center of hidden money and a favored tax haven. As
income inequality increases along with the increased rates and enforcement of taxation, foreign capital inflows will continue
to increase in Singapore that puts upward pressure on the currency. Singapore also has an 18%.6 current account surplus and has
been the greatest beneficiary of the growth of Asian economies and Asian tourism. As seen in the chart, the Singapore dollar has one
of the most stable paths of appreciation against the U.S. dollar of any currency.
1) New Zealand dollar
The New Zealand dollar is the safest store of value among the bunch. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the only developed nation
central bank that plans on raising interest rates in the near future and the country has reformed its tax code to lower rates and
increase transparency. New Zealand also has stable exports from undervalued agriculture assets.
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