Forecast and levels for NZD - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.13 08:34

NZD/USD - daily ranging bullish; 0.7344 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA levels located in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing 0.7309 resistance level to above for the 0.7344 nearest target to re-enter for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand is attempting to make good on a break of rising trend support guiding the currency higher since mid-May against its US counterpart. Prices accelerated lower having struggled to find immediate downside follow-through after the government announced an NZ$1 billion housing fund."
  • "From here, a daily close below the 0.7208-15 area (support shelf, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) opens the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7134. Alternatively, a push above the 0.7259-81 zone (former support, 14.6% Fib, trend line) paves the way for another challenge of the June 30 high at 0.7347."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.18 06:49

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand CPI and range price movement 

2017-07-17 23:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]

  • past data is 1.0%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

  • "The consumers price index (CPI) was flat overall at 0.0 percent (down 0.1 percent with seasonal adjustment)."
  • "Food prices rose 0.7 percent, influenced by higher prices for vegetables (up 19 percent)."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by NZ Consumer Price Index news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 12:05

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)


NZD/USD - "The NZD got a fresh shot in the arm Friday after Finance Minister Steven Joyce said that he was concerned about the strength of the Kiwi and that it highlights the strength of the New Zealand economy and the country’s robust export markets. Speaking to Bloomberg, Joyce said that he did not have an opinion on the NZD in contrast to comments from RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle who talked down any notion of a rate hike in Australia. A combination of renewed buying in the Kiwi and a weak USD saw the pair trade at a high of 0.74504 within a whisker of the September 5, 2016 high of 0.74857. The Kiwi has rallied nearly by over 8% against the USD since early May as the NZ economy continues to grow, driven by tourism, construction and immigration."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.24 16:54

NZD/USD - daily bullish breakout; 0.7457 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is testing 0.7457 resistance level together with ascending triabngle pattern to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Last week, NZDUSD easily blasted on through resistance in the zone surrounding 7350. The trend is clearly higher along with its sibling currency pair, AUDUSD, and as such the path of least resistance upward won’t be easily reversed in either. The preferred way to enter is via a pullback, and most ideally at a level or zone of support. Kiwi has sound horizontal support in the 7350-vicinity along with a trend-line rising up from May; these align with the one-standard deviation one-week projected low of 7339. If the recent leg up is only the beginning of another sizable run higher like the one seen in May/June, then we might not see a pullback develop into support. But if it does, it could be a good low-risk, high-reward entry for longs. Overall, barring a major turn of events it looks unlikely we will see NZDUSD drop below noted support."
  • "Looking higher, the one-week projected range-high is above the September high and well below major levels of resistance carved out in 2015 just over 7700. This means there may be room to run, and should the projected high be overcome then the options market may be proven in the short-term to have underestimated kiwi strength."
  • "Heads up: On Wednesday, the FOMC will release its decision on interest rates and with the Fed expected to hold pat on rates, focus will be on the policy statement and hints as to what the central bank will do at the meeting in September."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.02 08:34

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-08-01 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 1.1%
  • forecast data is 0.7%
  • actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "The jobless rate in New Zealand came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday."
  • "Overall employment fell 0.2 on quarter, missing forecasts for a gain of 0.7 percent following the 1.1 percent increase in the three months prior."
  • "In the June 2017 quarter, 3,000 fewer people were unemployed," labor market and households senior manager Diane Ramsay said. "The unemployment rate for women fell to 4.9 percent, with 10,000 fewer women unemployed - the lowest it's been since March 2009."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Employment Change news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.07 08:20

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Inflation Expectations and range price movement 

2017-08-07 04:00 GMT | [NZD - Inflation Expectations]

  • past data is 2.2%
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is 2.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Inflation Expectations] = Percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next 2 years. 

==========

From hotcopper article :

  • "The New Zealand dollar held near two-week lows on Monday while its Australian cousin steadied after four sessions of losses as the greenback finally found some favour from an upbeat U.S. jobs report. The New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 slipped 0.3 percent to $0.7395, just above last week's trough of $0.7392 - the lowest point since July 21."
  • "We think the RBNZ will do neither, though it is a risk." "An RBNZ survey on Monday showed inflation expectations for two years ahead had slipped to 2.09 percent, from 2.17 percent in the second quarter. The pullback adds to the case for keeping rates low for longer."
  • "Together with the low New Zealand Q2 CPI, the recent lift in the NZD raises the question of whether the RBNZ will talk down the NZD or replace its monetary policy's neutral bias with an easing bias," said Joseph Capurso, rates strategist at CBA.

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Inflation Expectations news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.08 08:16

NZD/USD - daily correction; 0.7346 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price was bounced from 0.7557 resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started. For now, the price is breaking descending triangle pattern to below together with 0.7346 support level for the correction to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar broke below trend line support guiding the move higher against its US cousin since mid-May, hinting a significant reversal is in the works. The move lower may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming RBNZ monetary policy announcement."
  • "The next layer of significant support comes in at 0.7276, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close below that opens the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 0.7188. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 0.7384 paves the way for a retest of the 14.6% retracement at 0.7450."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.13 09:24

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)


NZD/USD - "The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left monetary policy unchanged at governor Graeme Wheeler’s last monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The governor left rates unchanged at 1.75% but said that a lower New Zealand dollar is needed to “increase tradables inflation and help deliver more growth.” This comment, coupled with the closing “monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period” sent the Kiwi lower and back to levels last seen over one month ago. The governor who is set to leave on September 26 also said in comments to a parliamentary committee that currency market intervention to weaken the NZD is “always open to us.”"


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.14 08:30

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-08-13 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. 

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From official report :

  • "The total volume of retail sales rose 2.0 percent."
  • "The food and beverage industry had the largest increase in the series, up 4.2 percent. The record increase reflects the influx of sporting fans and visitors for the World Masters Games and the Lions rugby tour held in New Zealand during the June quarter."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Retail Sales news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.16 08:05

NZD/USD - daily correction; 0.7228  is the key (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart is above 200-SMA 'reversal' level in the bullish trend with the secondary correction started in the end of Juy this year: the price is breaking 0.7228 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the correction to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar resumed the downtrend started in late July against its US cousin after a brief consolidative pause, hitting the lowest level in a month. Resumption was triggered after US retail sales data topped consensus forecasts, sending the greenback broadly higher (as expected)."
  • "From here, a daily close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7188 opens the door for a test of the 61.8% level at 0.7101. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 38.2% Fib at 0.7276 sees the next upside barrier at 0.7384, marked by the 23.6% retracement."


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