Harmonic Analysis - page 149
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AUDJPY 4h - Potential bearish bat.
EURCAD 1h - Potential bearish cypher. Look how ABCD worked out. Divergence+weekly support. Convincing enough to take agg C.
Potential bullish cypher added. You can see RSX divergence. It was safe for me to enter agg C.
The cypher worked out? The answer is yes. Why? because -10pips below X is the rule of invalidation. In this case, it almost stopped me out (-8pips). From now on I'll draw PRZ -10pips below X. D of the cypher can be C of the bearish bat.
AUDJPY 4h, CADJPY 1h and CHFJPY 4h - Potential bearish cypher.
The bearish cypher on CADJPY worked out 75pips.
The cypher worked out? The answer is yes. Why? because -10pips below X is the rule of invalidation. In this case, it almost stopped me out (-8pips). From now on I'll draw PRZ -10pips below X. D of the cypher can be C of the bearish bat.
RyuShin, my question is why would you call the whole thing a PRZ up to the stop?
1. My understanding of PRZ is all the internal levels of the pattern, i.e. the XA ret, BC ext etc providing a zone. If you take a gartley, the PRZ should not extend to even X, and you would have the PRZ where all minimum expectations are fulfilled for the internal min/max levels. Of course the statement about stop above X is valid. (E.g. X+/-10pips+/-spread)
2. This is quite a specific case in my oppinion, what I mentioned a few days ago, about my respect to previous harmonics (no statistical evidence, just my observations)...pls. review that again, and rethink the answer if appropriate.
3. Would you mind to share with me your method of
- initial searching
- steps in analyzing found candidate by sequence
- importance of characteristics to chose the (right) candidate? (I mean what is the sequence and level of importance if lets say you found a gartley... 1. internal structure, 2. fibo S/R confluences, 3 divergence... or what and in what order?)
4. I f you do not mind to share your approach about entry size and tp-s...i.e.: do you enter multiple lots, do you have multiple targets? How do you handle if you are using multiple targets for the 2nd and 3rd if there is any.
Sorry for asking so much!
Tnx.
RyuShin, my question is why would you call the whole thing a PRZ up to the stop?
1. My understanding of PRZ is all the internal levels of the pattern, i.e. the XA ret, BC ext etc providing a zone. If you take a gartley, the PRZ should not extend to even X, and you would have the PRZ where all minimum expectations are fulfilled for the internal min/max levels. Of course the statement about stop above X is valid. (E.g. X+/-10pips+/-spread)
2. This is quite a specific case in my oppinion, what I mentioned a few days ago, about my respect to previous harmonics (no statistical evidence, just my observations)...pls. review that again, and rethink the answer if appropriate.
3. Would you mind to share with me your method of
- initial searching
- steps in analyzing found candidate by sequence
- importance of characteristics to chose the (right) candidate? (I mean what is the sequence and level of importance if lets say you found a gartley... 1. internal structure, 2. fibo S/R confluences, 3 divergence... or what and in what order?)
4. I f you do not mind to share your approach about entry size and tp-s...i.e.: do you enter multiple lots, do you have multiple targets? How do you handle if you are using multiple targets for the 2nd and 3rd if there is any.
Sorry for asking so much!
Tnx.1. Yes. If price exceeds X of Bat and Gartley, that means invalidation. However, Cypher is different. Why? because that's how I learnt. That's how Jason and Akil do too. I don't know if you can find but somebody posted a link to some tutorial videos of Cypher in the thread. In the tutorial, a guy tells about stop loss of Cypher and he says "-10pips below X". I don't clearly remember but that may be the guy who discovered Cypher. Go look for the link if interested.
2. I don't have any different answer because like I said, you should test by yourself. No substantial evidence, just your observation? That tells you to find what it is. Trading lower timeframes is not my cup of tea. Because it's noisy and cluttering. Also it grabs small pips in my opinion. My thought about structure is that "what's building on lower time frames is what's building on higher time frames". Look, market structure and harmonics occur any time frames, right? It's obviously right. So to me it's like "why bother? why don't I just deal with less noisy and cluttering time frames?". Take a look at 5m chart and 4h chart and compare them. I'm pretty sure you can find very similar (almost same) movements and harmonic patterns. e.g. you can find DT on both charts, you can find harmonic patterns on both charts. You have to find what time frames are comfortable with you. You shouldn't choose lower time frames just because you think it grabs pips in shorter time.
3. My method is very simple. I just take swing high/low to see what fibonacci ratios and what harmonic pattern I can possibly draw, look for support/resistance and confluence. I don't care a lot about internal structure. I pay more attention to support/resistance. e.g if I don't see support/resistance within PRZ, I become skeptical of a pattern. If I see support/pivot/resistance+divergence, I take a trade. Go take a look at 1h chart on USDCHF today. You can see Three-drives+MP(monthly pivot <-- support/resistance)+divergence. I took a short trade and grabbed 45pips. You can also see structure. I mean look at the chart. Beautiful three drives that look like stairs. As I said above, that happens on 5m chart as well but on 1h chart, there's definitely less noise. I don't know if you know but I posted a potential bullish gartley yesterday on USDCHF. It became invalid but price went up. Why? because of former-resistance support.
4. Currently I don't double a position. The reason is because I follow 16 pairs now. I used to double a position though cuz I didn't follow that many pairs. As for target, it depends. Usually I have only one target which is kinda funny cuz I used to have two targets. Anyways, the reason why I have only one target is because I open only one position. If I open two positions, I will definitely set two targets. How to determine a target? Well when a pattern completes, I draw fibonacci and see where 38.2, 50 and 61.8 sit. If I see support/resistance nearby 38.2, that'll be my target. when a pattern completes, I draw fibonacci and see where 38.2, 50 and 61.8 sit. If I see support/resistance nearby 38.2, that'll be my target.
USDCHF 1h - Potential bullish bat and cypher.
EURUSD 1h - Potential bearish bat and tradable cypher (it's tradable because some candles are below 141.4 fibo).
NZDUSD 4h - Potential bearish gartley.
Do you guys think this gartley is still valid? Do you guys think this didn't work out? Depends on your target, it worked out and didn't work out. For me, it didn't work out. I had about 30pips in profit but I didn't close because it didn't reach my target. I got stopped out. In my opinion when a pattern completes and price reverses and hits 23.6, that means the pattern worked out. I try to close position at 23.6 fibo if I have 20-30pips in profit. It all depends anyways. Look at the bearish bat on AUDUSD. After it completed, prices went down in 10 hours. When it reached 23.6, I had about 65pips and immediately thought "it's enough" and also I found support so I figured that it might go up again. Now the bat is still valid but looks like it's going to be invalid soon. Another one is a bearish cypher on USDJPY. The pair reached 23.6 on Monday, then it went up and then yesterday it came down to 23.6 and went up again. My target was 38.2 fibo but I closed it with 5pips in profit. I closed it because it was so choppy that it made me think it would not reverse or it might. I don't like when it happens. Now look at the chart, the pair seems to be going up. Maybe not but who knows.
EURGBP 1h - Potential bullish cypher.
This is how harmonic patterns should work out. Immediate reverse. I like it. I had three cyphers today and they all worked out.