100-300 Pips Per Day Any Pair Any Timeframe Using 2 Indicators - page 93
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olives is totally correct - s/r is so important.
What helps day to day trading, and especially if you want to trade S/R levels and see where the daily trend is going in general is MTF stochs. In the examples you can see daily stochs on the 1 hour chart and H1 stochs on the 15 min chart (4 hour stochs are better). In the H1 chart you can see that daily stochs are clearly bearish so the down moves are stronger. Watch out for days when stochs look like they're flipping (they'll appear very close together).
If you're going to trade from one S/R to the next this indicator is handy.
Also we as retail traders don't have the tools the institutional traders have - they have Bloomberg/Reuters terminals we have news calendars. They have accurate volume information which is a huge edge and we have currency strength EAs etc etc (although you can use Acuity which has some pretty neat features including the volume information from a large number of brokers). But as I said it can be done as long as you're disciplined and stick to a system with proper money management.
It's when people like Joe and others share systems and ideas with others, that's how we learn and improve.
Someone once said that a good trader can be successful with a mediocre system but a bad trader will fail with any system. I think this is true.
But keep it simple. If your screen looks like a christmas tree you're going to get brain ache...
S&r
Hi Mike
Kudos to Joe for making the thread and at least bringing the importance of support and resistance back into the limelight. Too many people rely on indicators with bells and whistles when they trade but the real secret (if there is one) is that the when the market stops moving it has hit a point of support or resistance. Which way it will break and how far depends on variety of things such as what the higher time frame is doing, or high impact news, etc.
I wait for the market to stall at support or resistance and then jump on board when it moves. Most of the time I'm trading in the right direction, however there are times when fundamental factors cause a temporary (or longer term) reversal which is where money management comes in to play.
The very first thing I do at the start of each day is to see what the daily chart is doing. If it's bearish I ignore all bullish moves on the 1HR chart, as these may just be retracements on the daily chart. Then I trade from one S/R to the other. Daily pivot points also key S/R levels and reversal points. I've attached a chart with daily pivots on it so you can see how price reacts to them.
There is also another indicator I use called Super_SR which works in the same way as the one Joe posted but the levels don't disappear they stay where they are. It's remarkably accurate with GJ.
In addition there is another indicator which is a multi-timeframe SR indicator. I sometimes drop to the 15min chart and plot 1hr S/R on it. Then trade from one level to the next. On occasion I use pending orders with very tight stops. Trading this way with S/R levels means an excellent risk to reward ratio. So your losers are small and the winners are very big.
Anyway enough rambling I'll post the charts and indies...Hi Olives,
I greatly appreciate your advice and tips and for confirming the importance of higher TFs for indicating most likely direction of breakouts.
Which of Joe's methods have you found more profitable? I've looked at #1 & #2 but not #3 yet; have you?
Cheers,
Mike
Hi Mike
To be honest mate, I don't trade at TFs under 15 mins. Actually 90% of the time I'm on the 1HR chart. I haven't looked at Joe's TSU 3. I can say that method 1 - good old SR trading is what I do.
I am however looking into tweaking a few things for TSU 2 to filter out false signals. Being able to find the highs and lows can indeed be very profitable. I have my own methods that I use which come along once in a while (more on some pairs than others). It's not exactly finding highs and lows but it's looking for certain candle formations that signal a reverse. Sometimes the reverse is temporary, like a range trade and other times the range trade develops into a trend.
I'm going to have a further look into it and see how it goes.
Tops & Bottoms
Hi Mike
To be honest mate, I don't trade at TFs under 15 mins. Actually 90% of the time I'm on the 1HR chart. I haven't looked at Joe's TSU 3. I can say that method 1 - good old SR trading is what I do.
I am however looking into tweaking a few things for TSU 2 to filter out false signals. Being able to find the highs and lows can indeed be very profitable. I have my own methods that I use which come along once in a while (more on some pairs than others). It's not exactly finding highs and lows but it's looking for certain candle formations that signal a reverse. Sometimes the reverse is temporary, like a range trade and other times the range trade develops into a trend.
I'm going to have a further look into it and see how it goes.Hi Olives,
I hope your tests go well; I'd be interested in your theory.
Cheers,
Mike
Thanks... Haven't heard from anyone else as to how they're getting on. How's it going for you Mike?
Thanks... Haven't heard from anyone else as to how they're getting on. How's it going for you Mike?
Hi Olives,
Am out most of the day so I miss most of the big moves, but I had a couple of buy demo trades on AUDUSD & USDCHF this evening which came in with a small profit. I used the H1 to give me an idea of strength and the M15 for entry point.
I am using Joe's #2 method and entering a trade at the next MACD pullback after the yellow 3 has hit a S or R level. I'm still getting used to this method but it certainly looks logical to trade with the S or R level behind you, provided it also agrees with the trend direction. I just need to stop taking every trade and wait for just the good ones!
Cheers,
Mike
If you're using Joes TSU2 it works better I find with the zero lag MACD. It's more responsive than regular MACD (same settings as Joe - 11,12,11).
Also if you're out most of the day it may be worth while putting pending orders at pivot points. So if you've determined that the the main trend for the day is down, set orders under support levels which are triggered when price crosses them. If you use 20 pip stops with 80 pip targets, thats a risk to ratio return of 1:4. If you're wrong 3 times, the 4th time you'll make back the lost pips plus 20 pips profit.
With the correct analysis you should have more wins than losses and the wins will be bigger. The stop depends on the volatility of the pair (some use ATR to determine stops). Volatile pairs such as GJ and G-Swiss mean wider stops but the profit potential is bigger than smoother pairs like EU/USD-Swiss.
I just need to stop taking every trade and wait for just the good ones!
Overtrading is one of the main causes traders end up giving pips back to the market. I have relatively few trades a week and only when they meet all the correct criteria. If it means standing aside then so be it. No pips is better than losing pips when you're trading live.
If you're using Joes TSU2 it works better I find with the zero lag MACD. It's more responsive than regular MACD (same settings as Joe - 11,12,11).
Also if you're out most of the day it may be worth while putting pending orders at pivot points. So if you've determined that the the main trend for the day is down, set orders under support levels which are triggered when price crosses them. If you use 20 pip stops with 80 pip targets, thats a risk to ratio return of 1:4. If you're wrong 3 times, the 4th time you'll make back the lost pips plus 20 pips profit.
With the correct analysis you should have more wins than losses and the wins will be bigger. The stop depends on the volatility of the pair (some use ATR to determine stops). Volatile pairs such as GJ and G-Swiss mean wider stops but the profit potential is bigger than smoother pairs like EU/USD-Swiss.Hi Olives,
Thanks for the indis; I'll download them when they've obtained admin approval. Don't suppose you also have that Crystal Ball indi people are always talking about?!
I'll try your suggestion of pending orders, but will need to carefully review news for possible red flag announcements. Do you find that on quiet news days the trend stays fairly predictable, price just varying according to banks buying/selling?
Thanks,
Mike