The Simba Con Man - page 10

[SIMBA]

pippt Analysis

Pippt:
Are we seeing a trend reversal ?

Please see the attached charts.

On the 1H chart we can see:

1 - SimbaConMan has changed is slope and that means that the price can go down.

2 - That the price forecast of 1.9750 was not reached.

3 - That the displaced moving average red (MA 35, -17) is now in slowing downtrend. That can be a signal that a new cycle is at is begining.

On the 4H chart we can see:

1- SimbaConMan has not yet changed is slope, but it is at the bottom side.

2- The price is bellow 4H SATL.

3 - 4H SATL is starting to change is slope.

Simba, what do you think about this facts?

Can we have any additional information or indicators interpretation to get

a better understanding of GBPUSD actual moment?

Best regards,

Pippt

Hi Pippt,and everybody else..

Nice analysis you did,basically it is very similar to mine,with some comments..

1-Price prediction 1.9750..was not a prediction,just a comment/feeling based on Hurst analysis as you rightly thought..and I still think we have some possibility..though I am out now,so,my level of confidence in the target is not very high,I took the 5M entry(@1.9664) and exited at 10:12 @ 1.9688(just at the near "rebound "with the SATL)..I tweaked my norms a little since the Chandelier had already changed ,so,I should have exited earlier,at 10:01 at a small loss..but ConMan 5M told me I could probably obtain a better exit..as it happened..I do not recommend this but to experienced(and lucky..;) ) traders..

2-Price below SATL:Potential change of trend,also Chandelier pointing down..so,the potential is high for a trend reversal

3-ConMan analysis of 1h/4h tells me that we will probably see the reversal very soon,probably today..and do not forget that at 13:00 CET we have BOE on rates,then 13:45 ECB on rates,then Mr Trichet comments..so,we have several potential catalyzers for a change of trend either by directly influencing GBP or by influencing USD trough EURUSD related change of trend

4-ConMan analysis of EURUSD 1H shows potential negative,though 4h is not yet "there"..so potential for a short term USD upmove versus European currencies is high..USDCHF is already there

5-The only things that makes me wait before shorting are:

A-SATL is still up and blue

B-Hurst analysis.. See pic..and estimate the projection..makes me wonder if there is still the possibility of a "spike" to the 1.9750+ area

Conclusion:Wait and prepare for change in trend..Look for confirmation

Regards

Simba

[Pippt]

Something that I forgot

There is something that I forgot to say on my last post.

That is related with SimbaConMan daily chart.

I bealive that is very important for your analysis. Please confirm.

So we had:

- SimbaConMan up on the daily chart;

- SimbaConMan on the bottom on the 4H chart; and ,

- SimbaConMan uo on the 1H chart.

Best regards,

Pippt

[pilofe]

Hi,

The Simba Con Man must be used in different TF of Daily?

Thanks...

Angelo

[Malcik]

Hi Simba and Pippt,

thanks for your interesting analyses. It would be great, if you had time and wanted to do so, to keep showing us such examples. Although there's not much I can discuss with you because I don't have such knowledge yet (working on it ), it is a good inspiration.

Thanks!

[SIMBA]

Pilofe,Pippt,Malcik

pilofe:
Hi,

The Simba Con Man must be used in different TF of Daily?

Thanks...

Angelo

Hi All,

1-Pilofe:You can use the ConMan a a standalone system only on D1 tf..you can use as an additional analysis tool in any tf..even on 1M

2-Pippt:OK daily ConMan pointing down,please check Hurst weekly and your probable conclusion will be that GBPUSD 2.000 is not going to be seen in a few months/years..This is where the money is made..

3-Malcik: OK,thanks,you have the capability please try,"the more we are ,the more we will laugh "

Regards

Simba

[SIMBA]

Hurst Based Weekly TF ANALYSIS

Hi All ,

Please take a look at the attached pic of GBPUSD Weekly tf..If you do the Hurst calculations,as explained in his book(+-10%)..you will see that the top of the target area is 1.9353+566 pips=1.9919..and we just had a recent top

@1.9914...Extract your own conclusions regarding this year most probable trend direction...;)..there is a lot of money to be made on this easy kind of cyclic analysis..of course markets do not move linearly but I have the feeling that we will make more money selling than buying this currency pair..though we will do both,in their relative daily and 4h down and uptrends..

If somebody wants to do this analysis for other pairs(EURUSD,USDCHF suggested..but you can do it also on EURGBP,EURCHF,GBPCHF..and you will have a relative ranking..extremely interesting)..please post it with your comments and I will try to add on them

Regards

Simba

[Pippt]

GBPUSD End of the week analysis

Please see the attached charts with the text.

First of all I want to public express my thanks to Simba for sharing his ideas, and trading analysis. I contacted Hurst works from his posts and my analysis is trying to follow Hurst principles with SimbaConman and SimbaSystem trading methodology. So there nothing original here. What you can see in this post is result from Simba contribution to this Forum. Many thanks Simba!

Second, I am posting here some ideas to share with you all as part of my learning process. Please do your comments, appoint any errors, and make sugestions to improve. Perhaps doing this we can all improve and be better traders.

And finally let's see the charts!

1- Daily chart comments

As you can see, price is bellow SATL, SATL is changing is slope, and SibaConMan is uptrending. So I will consider that we are seeing the starting os a downtrending move.

2- 4H chart comments

Price below SATL, SATL with a strong down slope and SimbaConMan UP. We can see here in more detail the idea that we get from the daily chart. 4H Downtrend.

Using Hurst principles I tried to established an preliminary price area target - around 1.9330 This target can be more fine tunning as time will run. However that can gave us the price move perspective.

3- 1H Chart comments

This chart give us a different perspective.

Price above SATL, SATL flat. SimbaConMan on the top area, flat.

And, perhaps we can closed a cycle at 1.9466 price area.

4 - 15m Chart Comments

Price below SATL, SATL almost flat and SimbaConMan DOWN.

That means that we can have here a minor up trend move that can go to 1.9539 price area.

Conclusion: I bealive that a down trend is now established and we must wait a little to enter short in this currency pair.

Let's follow what will happen, charts will tell us what to do.

Question: are the 4H and 1H cycles and price areas targets in disagreement?

Have nice trades!!

Pippt

[SIMBA]

Pippt ANALYSIS

Pippt:
Please see the attached charts with the text.

1- Daily chart comments

As you can see, price is bellow SATL, SATL is changing is slope, and SibaConMan is uptrending. So I will consider that we are seeing the starting os a downtrending move. ...Yes,excellent analysis

2- 4H chart comments

Price below SATL, SATL with a strong down slope and SimbaConMan UP. We can see here in more detail the idea that we get from the daily chart. 4H Downtrend. ...Yes,and still around 1 week to go

Using Hurst principles I tried to established an preliminary price area target - around 1.9330 This target can be more fine tunning as time will run. However that can gave us the price move perspective...OK,as preliminary

3- 1H Chart comments

This chart give us a different perspective.

Price above SATL, SATL flat. SimbaConMan on the top area, flat.

And, perhaps we can closed a cycle at 1.9466 price area....Probably

4 - 15m Chart Comments

Price below SATL, SATL almost flat and SimbaConMan DOWN.

That means that we can have here a minor up trend move that can go to 1.9539 price area...Yes,we will probably have a temporary trend correction ,but take care it can go higher,to the 1.9539 to 1.9600 area,due to the change in slope of the 1 hour ConMan

Conclusion: I bealive that a down trend is now established and we must wait a little to enter short in this currency pair...I am waiting to short as soon as 1hConMan approaches the new change in slope,if there is a correction,probably Monday night,Tuesday..though there is a risk of flat day or continuation move and then can lose the "train"..;)Let's follow what will happen, charts will tell us what to do.

Question: are the 4H and 1H cycles and price areas targets in disagreement?

Answer:Not so,just 1h cycles(probably up for 1 or 2 days) developing within the 4h cycle(probably down for the week),developing within the 1D cycle(probably down for the month,until mid March..)Have nice trades!!

Pippt

Hi Pippt,

Excellent analysis you did,you are trascending the mechanical part and have started to integrate the knowledge into an art form..please see my comments above,in red..

Congratulations

Simba

[dabella]

Excelent analysis Pippt! thanks.

I am comparing your conman readings with mine and i find a big difference.

Yesterday your conman at Daily chart is showing a value of 5.xxx (starting the uptrend). Mine is showing a value of 32.xxx and is actually flat at the top of the chart meaning a change of trend to the upside on the next days.

Notice that in all other time-frames (H4, H1 and M15) my conman chart agrees with yours.

Can i have a bad setting or something?

Daniel.

[kappari]

SIMBA:
Hi pilofe,

I took it out since the thread was without any new posts and thus I thought it was dead..

Glad people are still interested..here it is again

Simba

First of all thanks for you & keep on your efforts ,

i've a problem with the indicator ,

i downloaded it to the bath D:\Program Files\MetaTrader 4\experts\indicators,

but it always diapear when i restart metatrade ,

can you help me