Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.06 20:17

S&P 500 - bullish with key resistance at 2,300 (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area by breaking the high of the last month at 2,300 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The market has been very choppy since the middle of December; this makes for tough trading and calls on us to be disciplined in picking entries isolated to pullbacks. So, while the market looks poised to pick up some more points for the longs, buying the breakout isn’t the most appealing approach. This is especially true given that there lies resistance not far beyond the prior highs. The Feb and Nov trend-lines converged to form resistance during late January. While the confluence by convergence is past, we will still give respect to these top-side lines on approach. The first is the Feb trend-line, lying ahead around the 2310 mark. It’ll take an aggressive move higher to catch the more sharply angled Nov trend-line." 
  • "The market may chop around or decline towards support again, but barring a sharp sell-off below these levels an opportunity may exist for buyers to step in at attractive levels. The area including the old highs around 2277, the 12/30 trend-line, and swing low at 2267 offers a zone of solid support. There are other levels below this zone which come into play that the market would also need to clear for the currently bullish tilt to turn bearish. The numerous levels on the down-side in close proximity to one another will continue to keep the market well-supported for now." 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.18 17:54

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500 - "Heading into next week, on further strength we will look to the backside of the steeply rising November trend-line as potential resistance; given its angle, depending on the timing, the level comes in at ~2369-2385. On a minor dip, we will look to the Feb ’16 trend-line the market arched over last week as potential support: ~2332-2339."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.21 16:48

S&P 500 Technical Outlook: More of the Same for Now (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish market condition to be above Ichimoku cloud: price broke 2351 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The S&P is currently between two trend-lines rising up from the low in November and one extending back to the Feb low last year. The latter is viewed as support on any minor dip from here, while the steeply rising November trend-line is viewed as potential resistance with further strength. We will continue to run with the trend, but are on alert for a sign of exhaustion and potential reversal."
  • "Tomorrow, at 19:00 GMT the FOMC minutes from the Jan 31/Feb 1 will be released – a potential source of volatility, but not expected to rock the boat too much. Outside of the minutes the calendar is lacking in terms of scheduled high impact events this week. See the economic calendar for events on the docket."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.24 17:03

S&P 500 Technical Outlook: bullish ranging within 2367/2351 levels (based on the article)

S&P 500 on daily chart is located above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish market condition: the price was bounced from 2367 resistance level to below for the bullish ranging to be started.
If the price breaks 2367 level to above so the bullish trennd will be resumed, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels. 


  • "U.S. indices have been on a tear for all of February, but as of yesterday price action became unstable with a sharp morning break and afternoon rebound. The Nasdaq 100 put in an engulfing bar while the S&P 500 suffered a smaller set-back. At the time of this writing, we’re headed for a weaker open. Europe is taking it on the chin, with the DAX leading the way lower by about 1.5%, and the S&P futures following suit by heading lower by 10 handles."
  • "With weakness in the near-term setting in, we’re starting to think about how far the S&P could decline before finding potential support. The first line of interest is the Feb ’16 trend-line about 25 handles lower. For now, all we can do is consider weakness as a pullback within an ongoing uptrend, but with volatility having been compressed for a few months, and March, an often-volatile month just ahead, we could be in for a bumpy ride."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.26 14:06

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500 - "Looking to the most important scheduled economic events in the U.S., we start the week off on Monday with Durable Goods Orders at 13:30 GMT; Tuesday holds Q4 GDP at 13:30 as well as Advance Goods Trade Balance, followed by Consumer Confidence at 15:00; Wednesday brings Core Personal Consumption Expenditure at 13:30, then ISM Manufacturing at 15:00; and to end the week ISM Services/Non-manufacturing at 15:00, followed by Yellen speaking in Chicago at 18:00."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 18:47

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500 - "In the U.S., all ‘high’ impact economic events are slated for Wednesday outside of the UofM Confidence Survey on Friday. Wednesday kicks off with the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Advance Retail Sales figures in the earlier part of the day, but markets are unlikely to react much with the FOMC rate decision later in the day. The market is pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike, so barring a 0 or 50-bps move, attention will be on the language of the Fed and any forward guidance."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.14 15:52

S&P 500 Outlook - correction with 2,371 support level (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from 2,400 resistance to below for the seccondary correction to be started: the price is on testing the support level at 2,371 to below for the correction to be continuing.


  • "What we will be watching – support, of course. As long as the intersection between the November & ‘cross-through’ trend-line from the February 2016 low keep a bid in the market, then it will be tough to be anything but neutral to bullish. But a slice through those lines and a drop below Thursday’s low and horizontal support at ~2353 will warrant a switch in bias as another leg lower off the early-month high kicks off."
  • "Heads up: FOMC tomorrow may provide a jolt of volatility. The market is expecting a 25-bps rate increase, so ruling out a 0 or 50-bps move volatility will likely stem from the Fed’s language (as is typically the case). No predictions on this end, we’ll simply react to the reaction and go from there…"


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.17 14:40

S&P 500: End Of Week Technicals - bullish ranging within 2390-2348 levels for direction (based on the article)

Daily price broke 2373/2380 resistance levels to above for the 2390 bnearest bullish target.

If the price breaks 2390 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 2348 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement to the ranging bearish market condition will be started: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
if not so the price will be ranging within 2390-2348 levels for direction.


  • "The market may not rip to new highs in the same fashion it did in February, and in fact it may meander side-ways for a period of time (a process which could serve the market well given how far it has come in such a short period of time). As long as those trend-lines hold and we don’t see a sharp break through them develop, we look for short-term weakness to find buyers. A close below the confluence of trend-lines and then ultimately a lower low below 2353 would be required to tilt the picture downward."
  • "Looking higher, the next true level of resistance doesn’t arrive until the previous record high of 2401.
    Next week is light in terms of scheduled economic events, so the market will likely be driven on good old fashioned supply and demand – markets don’t need a big reason to move."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:38

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500 - "On Wednesday, the FOMC raised rates by 25-bps as expected, and provided a glide path for rates and language in the policy statement which did little to breed a tremendous amount of volatility in equity markets. The net response by stocks was a mildly positive one, while the US dollar was punished in the absence of anything to boost expectations beyond what the market was already looking for. In the coming week, Yellen will speak on Thursday, but it is unlikely her words will be market-moving given the proximity to last week’s policy meeting. On Friday, Durable Goods Orders for February will be released."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:40

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500 - "The economic calendar for the coming week is light with ‘high’ impact events. We have Advance Goods Trade Balance and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday; Final Q4 GDP on Wednesday; Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday. It’s unlikely any of these events cause a major stir in equities; the larger reactions will likely to be seen in the FX/rates space."


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