Press review - page 490

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and 35 pips range price movement

2017-02-22 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

• "UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.7% between Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016 and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016, revised up 0.1 percentage points from the preliminary estimate of GDP published on 26 January 2017. Upward revisions (due to later data received) within the manufacturing industries is the main reason (these revisions were first published as part of the Index of Production for December 2016 released on 10 February 2017)."
• "UK GDP growth in Quarter 4 2016 saw a continuation of strong consumer spending which is in line with the Retail Sales Index for Quarter 4, which grew by 1.2% (published on 20 January 2017) and strong growth in the output of the services sector with a notable contribution in consumer-focused industries. In Quarter 4 2016, there has been a slowdown within business investment which fell by 1.0%, driven by subdued growth within the “ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment” assets."

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GBP/USD M5: 35 pips range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Retail Sales and 42 pips range price movement

2017-02-22 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is -0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Retail Sales] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

• "Following four consecutive monthly increases, retail sales decreased 0.5% in December. Declines were widespread as lower sales were reported in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 82% of retail trade."
• "After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms decreased 1.0%."

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USD/CAD M5: 42 pips range price movement by Canada's Retail Sales news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Private Capital Expenditure and 27 pips range price movement

2017-02-23 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

• past data is -3.3%
• forecast data is -0.4%
• actual data is -2.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

==========

From official report:

• "The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell 3.1% in the December quarter 2016 and the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 2.1%."
• "The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell 4.7% in the December quarter 2016 and the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 4.1%."

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AUD/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Australian Private Capital Expenditure news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition: price is located within 101.74 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 100.39 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.

"Recent DXY updates have noted that “if a broader decline is underway, then resistance probably needs to register (again) near the channel line that has been resistance and support since Brexit…the 55 day average is up here too.” Resistance is holding and a possible head and shoulders top is evident and would confirm on a drop under the February low. Even then, trendline support registers below 98.00. Watch for range support near 99.80."

[Sergey Golubev]

Facebook with live sport, Facebook platform and the bullish trend to be continuing with 136 resistance level to be broken (based on the article)

Daily share price is located above 100-SMA/200-SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on testing with 136.78 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Reports suggest that Facebook is in talks with Major League Baseball to live stream one game per week on its platform. Both Facebook and Twitter are looking at live sports as a key catalyst to drive user engagement, growth and eventually revenues. Last year, Twitter won the rights to broadcast the NFL’s Thursday Night Football games on its platform, and has been constantly looking for similar deals since. In broadcasting live sports, social media networks are combining viewing, gaming and real-time commentary on one platform. This can help improve engagement beyond the traditional linear experience, and could potentially bring a larger audiences to these events. Facebook is already looking to launch a TV app which will allow its users to watch videos from its platform on a big screen. This would be immensely useful for live sports, as users generally prefer to view these on a larger screen. Live sports could enable Facebook to connect better with younger audiences and improve user engagement significantly, driving advertising revenues. Below we discuss how Facebook could benefit from streaming live sporting events."
• "According to our estimates, advertising on the core Facebook platform accounts for nearly 70% of the company’s valuation. Facebook indicated that it expects a slowdown in advertising revenue growth going forward. We expect the company’s average revenue per user from U.S. and Canada to grow steadily from $78 in 2017 to $125 by the end of our forecast period."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 37 pips range price movement

2017-02-24 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report:

• "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 1.5% gain in December."
• "Excluding gasoline, the CPI was up 1.5% year over year in January, after posting a 1.4% increase in December."

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USD/CAD M5: 37 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 Technical Outlook: bullish ranging within 2367/2351 levels (based on the article)

S&P 500 on daily chart is located above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish market condition: the price was bounced from 2367 resistance level to below for the bullish ranging to be started.
If the price breaks 2367 level to above so the bullish trennd will be resumed, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels. 

• "U.S. indices have been on a tear for all of February, but as of yesterday price action became unstable with a sharp morning break and afternoon rebound. The Nasdaq 100 put in an engulfing bar while the S&P 500 suffered a smaller set-back. At the time of this writing, we’re headed for a weaker open. Europe is taking it on the chin, with the DAX leading the way lower by about 1.5%, and the S&P futures following suit by heading lower by 10 handles."
• "With weakness in the near-term setting in, we’re starting to think about how far the S&P could decline before finding potential support. The first line of interest is the Feb ’16 trend-line about 25 handles lower. For now, all we can do is consider weakness as a pullback within an ongoing uptrend, but with volatility having been compressed for a few months, and March, an often-volatile month just ahead, we could be in for a bumpy ride."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, February 26 - March 05 (based on the article)

Durable Goods Orders, GDP data from the US, Australia, and Canada, US Consumer Confidence, Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims and rate decision in Canada. These are the main events on forex calendar.

1. US Durable Goods Orders: Monday, 13:30. Durable Goods Orders are expected to climb 1.6% while core orders are expected to gain 0.5%.
2. US GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. US GDP growth is expected to reach 2.1% in the fourth quarter.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. Consumer moral is expected to register 111.1 in January.
4. Australian GDP data: Wednesday, 0:30. Economists expect the Australian economy will grow by 0.7% in the fourth quarter.
5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. The BoC upwardly revised its 2017 GDP outlook to 2.1%, despite the strong Canadian dollar weighing on exporters as well as concerns over US trading policy.
6. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 56.1 this time.
7. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
8. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 13:30. Analysts expect a growth rate of 0.3% in December.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of claims is expected to inch up to 245,000 this week.
10. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. US services sector is expected to reach 56.6 in February.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, February 26 - March 05 (based on the article)

EUR/USD had a relatively balanced week, dipping to the downside but never going too far. The upcoming week is packed with PMI data, inflation figures and more. Will the pair move decidedly to one direction or another? 

1. Spanish Flash CPI: Monday, 8:00.
2. Monetary data: Monday, 9:00. Similar numbers are expected.
3. French CPI: Tuesday, 7:45.
4. French GDP: Tuesday, 7:45. This is a revision for Q4 data.
5. CPI (flash): Tuesday, 10:00.
6. Manufacturing PMIs: Wednesday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, the final French number at 8:50, final German figure at 8:55 and the final euro-zone score at 9:00.
7. German unemployment change: Wednesday, 8:55. The No. 1 economy in the euro-zone enjoys a strong jobs markets.
8. German CPI: Wednesday morning from the various states, with the all-German figure coming out at 13:00.
9. Spanish Unemployment Change: Thursday, 8:00.
10. Unemployment rate: Thursday, 10:00. Similar to Spain, the unemployment rate for the euro-zone is improving, but remains high, standing at 9.6% in December. This was better than expected.
11. PPI: Thursday, 10:00.
12. Services PMIs: Friday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, the final French number at 8:50, final German figure at 8:55 and the final euro-zone score at 9:00.
13. Retail Sales: Friday, 10:00.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The week ahead will keep the same themes firmly in the spotlight. A busy docket of scheduled commentary from Fed policymakers is headlined by remarks from Chair Yellen and Governor Lael Brainard, a vocal dove. If she too is keen to get on with stimulus withdrawal, a hike in March will seem more likely. On the economic data front, a broad offering of activity indicators is expected to show steady progress in line with recent trends. A revised set of fourth-quarter GDP figures is projected to deliver an upgrade, nudging the on-year growth rate to 2.1 percent from the originally reported 1.8 percent. At face value, this seems like a generally supportive environment for the US currency. However, it may all prove for naught if fiscal considerations spoil the mood again. Whether or not that happens will depend on President Trump, who is due to address a joint session of Congress on Wednesday."