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Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 9

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The European stock indexes ended without major fluctuations, although they traded most of the day in negative territory.

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Attention will now be focused on the behavior of oil and developments in Washington regarding the discussion of the new health system law.

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.24 08:17

DJIA and S&P 500: breaking new high (based on the article)

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the German DAX are the only three major averages around the globe to set new all-time intraday highs this week, and they did so on June 19 or June 20. All nine indexes have positive weekly charts. Overbought readings are noted on the Dow 30, S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Nikkei 225, India’s Nifty 50 and the German DAX. Dow Transports, Russell 2000 and the Shanghai Composite have rising momentum readings."


"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (21,397.29 on June 22) set an all-time intraday high of 21,535.03 on June 20, and has a positive but overbought weekly chart. Reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels of 21,987 and 22,041, respectively. My quarterly value level lags at 19,189."


"The S&P 500 (2,434.15 on June 22) set an all-time intraday high of 2,453.82 on June 19, and has a positive but overbought weekly chart. Reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels of 2,448.8 and 2,537.9, respectively. Note that the monthly level has been tested as a warning. My quarterly value level lags at 2,225.2."


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Asian markets closed higher, led by oil companies. In addition, there was a purchase of the sectors that had been penalized the most last week. It should be noted that several markets, such as Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, India and the Philippines, were closed because of the end of Ramadan.

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Asian markets do not present a common trend. Unlike yesterday, the appreciation of oil could not trigger a sustainable rise.

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Hedge funds have in recent weeks accumulated selling positions (supposedly equivalent to 162 million barrels) and have been one of the main causes of the fall in crude.

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Oil has prolonged its recent rise, even in the face of the release of energy reserves by the Department of Energy. Oil stocks increased by 118,000 barrels last week, compared to forecasts of a drop of 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 894 thousand barrels, compared to an expected decrease of about 288 thousand barrels. From a technical point of view, Brent is faced with a zone of resistance formed by the 48.33 / 49.15 levels.

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Yesterday, the DAX broke the support formed by the area of ​​12490/12500, which constituted a relevant short / medium technical barrier. It is important to emphasize that in the last 12 months, the stock markets have not suffered any corrections worth noting. The only falls that deserve mention were the ones that followed Brexit and the election of Donald Trump but lasted only a few hours. So if S & P, which we consider to be the leading index of world markets, start trading below 2419 then the likelihood of a larger correction than witnessed in recent months will begin to be significant.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
101554
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.02 07:53

The Week Ahead: S&P 500 targets (based on the article)


Weekly price for S&P 500 is located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for 2,453 resistance level to bee testing for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price 2,386 support to below on weekly close bar so the logican correction wilkl be started with 2,354 and 2,312 levels as the targets to re-enter.

  • "Last week Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist discussed on CNBC his year-end S&P 500 target of 2700. As an investor should this make you nervous?"
  • "If a larger number of analysts start to raise their targets I would become more concerned as typically this occurs before a correction.  Some may remember in early 2016 when crude oil dropped below $40 many lowered their price targets to the $20-$25 area. As it turned out crude oil rallied for the rest of the year to close $20 higher."

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Asian markets closed with contained variance, despite the positive news coming from the Chinese economy. In June, the Caixin PMI index reached 50.4, above the estimated 49.4 and 50.0, which separates a cycle of expansion from a contraction cycle. Unlike the official PMI index prepared by the state authorities, the Caixin PMI index, calculated by a private institution, is compiled through surveys of small and medium private enterprises. These companies are more representative of the more dynamic areas of the Chinese economy than the large state-owned enterprises, which are at the heart of the official PMI index.

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