Press review - page 500

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)

S&P 500 - "On Wednesday, the FOMC raised rates by 25-bps as expected, and provided a glide path for rates and language in the policy statement which did little to breed a tremendous amount of volatility in equity markets. The net response by stocks was a mildly positive one, while the US dollar was punished in the absence of anything to boost expectations beyond what the market was already looking for. In the coming week, Yellen will speak on Thursday, but it is unlikely her words will be market-moving given the proximity to last week’s policy meeting. On Friday, Durable Goods Orders for February will be released."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for FTSE 100 (based on the article)

FTSE 100 - "Looking to key events this coming week, the only ‘high’ impact piece of data the market may take interest in is the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. Continuing risk of ‘Brexit’ headlines remains, of course. he FTSE 100 closed to a new record high on Friday. Higher highs and higher lows have marked good trend-health since early February. A development we are not interested in fighting. That is not to say, though, the market is in the all-clear. Not far ahead lies top-side trend-lines extending over from peaks created back in 2015 and 2016; these could be problematic on a further advance. We’ll take note as to how the market responds should the FTSE continue to trade higher into those levels. It will require a hard price break to undermine the intermediate-term trend structure and warrant a defensive stance."

[Sergey Golubev]

UK To Trigger Article 50 On March 29 (based on the article)

The primary bearish is the long-term trend tendency for the pair: monthly price broke Ichimoku cloud to below in augist 2014 for the bearish marklet condition. Fow now, the price is continuing with the bearish market condition with 1.1475 medium-term bearish target to re-enter for example.

• "British Prime Minister Theresa May will invoke the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty next Wednesday, March 29, thus formally beginning the process of exiting the European Union."
• "UK's Ambassador to the EU Tim Barrow informed European Council President Donald Tusk of the the government's intention to trigger Article 50 earlier on Monday, Brexit secretary David Davis said in a statement."

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil and the correlation in trading: Crude Oil Pitfalls (based on the article)

Daily price is on secondary correction which was started in the beginning of March this year: price broke key support levels to below for 200-day SMA value at 50.8 to be testing to below for the daily bearish reversal. On the monthly basis - the price dropped by 8.06% to below (monthly) which is indicating the high volatility for example. 

• "Crude oil is very, very volatile, much more volatile than Forex currency pairs. For this reason, most brokers enforce a considerably lower maximum true leverage on crude oil trades compared to Forex currency pairs. Even though brokers and regulators are doing a little something to try to save you from blowing up, you still have a lot of work to do because the minimum position size you can take in crude oil is usually much larger than in a Forex currency pair too."
• "The next issue is the high volatility of crude oil. Over an average week between 2001 and 2014, the price ranged by 7.28%. Finally, in long-term trades, crude oil often carries higher overnight financing charges than the Canadian dollar."

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil and the correlation in trading: Crude Oil and the Canadian Dollar (based on the article)

Daily USD/CAD price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: the price is testing 50% Fibo level at 1.3291 to below for the reversal of the price movement from the correctional bullish to the ranging bearish market condition.

• "That there is a correlation between the prices of the Canadian dollar and crude oil. Using the same weekly historical data discussed previously, there is a correlation coefficient between the two of 0.34. This is a reasonably high level of correlation considering the high time frame used in the calculation (weekly) and the 13-year back test period. That means that the prices tend to move the same way, which is not surprising, as Canada is a major oil producer (ranked 5th in the world) and exporter (ranked 4th in the world). There are only two countries with larger known oil reserves than Canada. These facts make the “Loonie” (as the Canadian dollar is widely known) a major “petro-currency” whose relatively value is highly dependent upon the price of oil."
• "The relatively high correlation offers more opportunity than substitution: it can also be a basis for trading strategies. If we assume that the correlation is due to the price of crude oil acting as a kind of leading indicator of the future price of the Canadian dollar, then we could wait for oil to get significantly ahead or behind and be ready to trade the Canadian dollar in the same direction."

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.K. CPI (adapted from the article)

• "A pickup in the U.K.’s headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may fuel the near-term rebound in GBP/USD as it raises the risk of seeing a greater dissent within Bank of England (BoE)."
• "Above-target inflation may spark a growing rift within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) following the 8 to 1 vote in March, but the discord could be short lived with board member Kristen Forbes scheduled to depart the central bank at the end of June. With that said, Governor Mark Carney may continue to tame interest rate expectations and reiterate ‘monetary policy can respond, in either direction’ as Prime Minister Theresa May plans to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on March 29. The U.K.’s departure from the European Union (EU) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound especially as Scotland appears to be on course to hold a second referendum, and renew fears of a ‘hard Brexit’ may push the central bank to further support the real economy as ‘the Committee expects a slowdown in aggregate demand over the course of this year.’"

Bullish GBP Trade: Headline Reading Exceeds 2% Target, Core Inflation Upticks in February

• "Need a green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long GBP/USD entry."
• "If the market reaction favors a long British Pound trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. CPI Report Fails to Meet Market Expectations

• "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse."

[Sergey Golubev]

We are having many threads opened by the members for the asking about forex brokers based in the US. So, I just found one article about those brokers:

Top U.S.-Regulated Forex Brokers 

US Forex Brokers

As we are not allowed to discuss about the brokers in extensive way (especially their pros and cons for example) so, please, do not discuss about them (or about any brokers) on the forum. Just this one article only.

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index: support levels at 99.46/99.18 to be broken for the correction to be continuing (based on the article)

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA and above 200-day SMA in the ranging bullish area of the chart. Price is testing descending triangle pattern together with support level at 99.46 and 99.18 to below for the secondary correction to be continuing.

• "DXY continues to trade on parallels that are defined by the 2016 support line (from the May low). The yearly opening price is 102.38 and could influence for a reaction. I’d also pay attention to 100.39 (March 2015 high…here we are 2 years later by the way…basically unchanged!) for support. A break through one of these levels ideally offers something to work with from a trend perspective."
• "DXY has broken 100.39 so focus is on the trendline (originates at May 2016 low) and 200 day average just below 99.00. If that breaks, then DXY is a full-fledged bear."

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish ranging, daily bearish reversal

2017-03-22 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -0.2M
• forecast data is 1.9M
• actual data is 5.0M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.0 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bearish. The price was ranging near and below 200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 200 SMA to below for 50.14 support level to be testing for the bearish trend to be resumed.

If the price breaks 50.52 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 50.14 support so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: bearish reversal. The price is breaking 200-day SMA together with 50.23 to below for the reversal to the bearish market condition.

If daily price breaks 57.42 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 58.35 nearest bullish target.
If the price breaks 52.63 support level to below so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 42 pips range price movement 

2017-03-22 20:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.75%
• forecast data is 1.75%
• actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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From official report:

• "The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent.""Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly."

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NZD/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event