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Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 5

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Most Asian markets closed lower, although the Japanese stock exchange was closed for a holiday (“Green Day”). Producers of raw materials reported losses due to falling metal prices following the publication of the PMI index for the manufacturing sector in China. This indicator dropped to 50.30, the lowest reading since September 2016, raising doubts about the growth of the country’s economy which is the world’s largest copper consumer.

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Asian markets finished lower, with the Japanese being closed. Investors have responded to falling commodity prices and are awaiting the US employment report.
Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.06 13:38

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500 - "Looking ahead to next week, market participants will be reacting to the outcome of the French run-off election between Macron and Le Pen. The futures market will move on developments in European markets. If Macron wins we could see another gap higher as we did following the first-round results. But as discussed above, the ‘gap-n-trap’ scenario could see the CAC 40 fade long before the US open arrives. If that is the case, overnight futures gains could be erased by the time the US open rolls around. It’s just a scenario at this time, but one we’ll be tracking should things unfold in that direction. If Le Pen pulls the surprise victory, a gap-down and sell-off will likely be in play."


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Yesterday, after the election results were known, the Euro appreciated against the Dollar for the highest level of the last 6 months and against the Yen for the highest value of the last year. The recent behavior of the markets already had discounted a victory of Macron, limiting now a further rally.

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It doesn’t matter what field you are in there will always be a bottom 10% a top 10% and the middle group. The ones that have the best mindset will rise to the top.
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Companies have exceeded forecasts because of revenue growth and not so much because of a cost-cutting program. On the other hand, analysts' forecasts have been successively improved. In the case of the United Kingdom, the devaluation of the Pound and the rise of the prices of the raw materials will have been motors of the good performance achieved.
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The energy sector led the gains of the S & P500, reflecting rising oil prices, after Iraq and Algeria joined Saudi Arabia to support an extension of production cuts by OPEC. In addition, US oil inventories declined more than expected. Despite this, this rise in the price of crude was not enough to recover from the losses recorded last week. The US Department of Energy reported today that weekly oil inventories fell by 5.2 million barrels, compared to estimated 1.9 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell by 150,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 65,400 barrels.
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The rally unleashed by the result of the 1st round of the French presidential elections led the main European indices to extremes from the technical point of view. This condition coupled with the sharper drop in these indices yesterday, increases the likelihood of a short-term technical correction.
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European markets were trading bullish, with investors outpacing the possible effects of the International Cyberattack of “WannaCry” virus, as well as the latest missile test in North Korea. In fact, the regional elections in Germany, as well as the prospects for an extension of the oil production cut by Russia and Saudi Arabia, contributed to the positive sentiment of the investors. An analysis by Bank of America Merrill Lynbch notes that investment in European equity markets has shown strong growth, but there is still room to recover further. In the US, the uncertainty that has recently surrounded the Trump Administration, particularly with regard to tax reform, has left investors with greater uncertainty.
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In pre-opening, European markets were trading in different directions. The Earnings Season is nearing its end, but today investors will still have to react to the results released by Vodafone and EasyJet. On the other hand, macroeconomic information will also be in the spotlight, as well as the oil price behavior that has been closely monitored in recent days. Today will be known the advanced estimate for the GDP of the first quarter of the Euro Zone. The recently released indicators have shown a favorable momentum in the first months of the year in all the countries that share the Euro. The meeting between the French President Emmanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel resulted in a joint demonstration of the two concerning a possible revitalization of Franco-German relations, which have been the driving force of the various member states of the European Union. Angela Merkel expressed her openness to achieving measures that guarantee the future of the European Union.
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