Press review - page 400

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: JPY Machine Tool Orders and 47 pips price movement

2016-05-19 06:00 GMT | [JPY - Machine Tool Orders]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Machine Tool Orders] = Machine Tool Orders is considered a leading indicator of business capital spending, and increases are indicative of stronger business confidence and a better future outlook. Higher capital spending is also positive for the Japanese employment situation, as companies will generally require new employees to run and maintain new machinery.

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USD/CNH M5: 47 pips price movement by JPY Machine Tool Orders news event


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 40 pips price movement

2016-05-19 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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  • "The volume of retail sales in April 2016 is estimated to have increased by 4.3% compared with April 2015."
  • "The underlying pattern in the data, as suggested by the 3 month on 3 month movement in the quantity bought, increased by 0.3%."
  • "Compared with March 2016, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have increased by 1.3%."
  • "Average store prices (including petrol stations) fell by 2.8% in April 2016 compared with April 2015."
  • "The amount spent in the retail industry increased by 1.2% compared with April 2015 and increased by 1.0% compared with March 2016."

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GBP/USD M5: 40 pips price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event 


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

SILVER (XAG/USD) Intra-Day Price Action Analysis (based on the article)

  • "Yesterday evening, silver prices slipped below the April 25 low of $16.78 after the publication of a more hawkish than expected FOMC minutes release."
  • "Concerning GDP, we already know that it may pick up, as the Atlanta Fed’s GDP now-cast model projects a rise of 2.5 % (seasonally adjusted annual rate). In regards to the other variables, it appears that the markets expect labor to remain strong and for inflation to rise, given the increased likelihood of a June rate hike."
  • "A potentially short-term resistance level is the April 25 low of $16.78, which previously acted as a support but which may now turn into resistance. The short-term trend will remain bearish below the intraday high of $17.15 formed on May 18 and a few hours before the publication of the Fed minutes. The trend is bearish in the short-term, as prices have been creating lower lows and lower highs since May 16. The high preceding the $17.15 high is the May 17 high of $17.32."


H4 price is on breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price broke 200 period SMA to below for the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition.

  • The price is testing 16.32 support level for the bearish breakdown to be continuing,
  • otherwise - we may see the ranging trend for the waiting for direction.
  • Alternatively, if the price breaks 17.15 resistance level to above so the price will be started with the reversal back to the primary bullish market condition.
Resistance
Support
16.9116.32
17.15N/A
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Trading News Events: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) has turned upbeat on the economy in 2016, Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. may opt to retain the accommodative policy stance for an extended period as the central bank continues to highlight the persistent slack in the real economy.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish CAD Trade: Headline & Core Rate of Inflation Exceed Market Forecast

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on USD/CAD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Report Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
USD/CAD Daily



  • May see the long-term bull trend in USD/CAD reassert itself as the pair breaks out of the bearish formation from earlier this year, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) following suit.
  • Key Resistance: 1.3560 (100% expansion) to 1.3630 (38.2% retracement)
  • Key Support: 1.2510 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2520 (38.2% expansion)
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and 20 pips price movement

2016-05-20 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

  • "The Consumer Price Index rose 1.7% in the 12 months to April, after increasing 1.3% in March."
  • "Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.0% year over year in April, following a 1.9% increase in March."
  • "Energy prices declined 3.2% in the 12 months to April, following a 7.8% decrease in March. This smaller year-over-year decline was mainly attributable to a moderation in the year-over-year decrease in gasoline prices, down 5.8% in April, following a 13.6% decline the previous month."
  • "Smaller year-over-year decreases were also recorded in the natural gas index and the fuel oil index in April compared with March. Natural gas prices were down 12.8% in the 12 months to April, following a 17.4% decline in March, while fuel oil prices fell 19.3% in April, following a 25.8% decrease the previous month."

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USD/CAD M5: 20 pips price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event  


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Expert Advisors: Renko Line Break vs RSI EA

Sergey Golubev, 2014.03.28 07:39

The 3 Step EMA and Renko Strategy for Trading Trends (based on dailyfx article)
  • Many Forex traders use weighted moving averages, called EMA’s, to trade currency pairs that are trending.
  • Determine the direction of the dominant trend direction with a 200 period EMA.
  • Use price crossing a 13 period MA as both an entry trigger and manual trailing stop

Developed in the 18th century in Japan to trade rice, Renko charting is a trend following technique. It is excellent for filtering out price “noise” so traders can catch a major part a given Forex trend. It was believed that the name “Renko” originated from the Japanese word ‘renga’ meaning ‘brick’.
Similar to Kagi and Point and Figure charting, Renko ignores the element of time used on candlesticks, bar charts, and line charts. Instead, Renko focuses on sustained price movement of a preset amount of pips.

For example, a trader can set the bricks for as little as 5 pips or as many as 100 or more. A new brick will not be formed until price has moved 100 pips. It could take 24 hours for a new brick to form or it could take just a few hours. However, no bricks will form until the preset limit is achieved.

Find the Trend Direction

Renko charts can incorporate many of the usual technical indicators like stochastics, MACD, and moving averages. Today’s strategy will marry up Forex Renko charts with a 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to find trend direction. Very simply, if price is trading above its 200 EMA, then the trend is up. If price is trading below its 200 EMA, then the trend is down.

This filter will give us a directional bias much like a compass or GPS. We will look to only take long trades when the Renko bricks are trending above the 200 EMA. On the other hand, in a downtrend, if the Renko bricks are trending below the 200 EMA, then the trend down. Forex traders will only look to short the market. One of the biggest mistakes swing traders make is entering trades that go counter to the dominant trend.

When to Get In

After the dominant trend direction is determined, traders can use the simplicity of Renko charts with a single 13 period EMA as a ‘trigger’ to signal an entry in the direction of the major trend. First, wait for at least two green bricks to appear above the 13 EMA. Then enter long on the appearance of the second green brick above the 13 EMA.

Exiting for Profit and for Loss


Once a trader is “triggered” into the trade, a protective stop can be set one-brick size below the 13 EMA. As long as the bricks remain above the 13 EMA, we look to stay with the trend. Just as the 13 EMA can get you in a new trade, the same EMA can be used to stop out a winning trade locking in profits.

Traders will need to manually move the stop one brick-size below 13 EMA and the current price brick. You can see in the example above how the combination of Renko and the 13 EMA helps traders stay with the trend a longer time.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "There are 9, officially-scheduled speeches on the docket through the coming week, and some of their content will be particularly palatable to rate speculators. St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak about policy normalization on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (to this point vague on policy standing) will discuss energy and monetary policy Wednesday, and Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak on Friday. Expect rate forecasts to swing on key words – hawkish and dovish – while the Dollar follows along." 


GBP/USD - "On the docket for next week we have just one piece of high-impact data, and even that report might be down-played. This is the 2nd estimate GDP numbers from Q1 of this year. No revisions are expected here, but should this number be revised significantly higher or lower we’ll likely see GBP move in that direction (revisions higher bringing strength, while revisions lower entail weakness). But far more important at this point-in-time is the forward-looking analysis/fear of what may come from the Brexit vote looming just a month away."


USD/CNH - "China’s domestic financial markets may bring volatility to Yuan rates: As discussed last week, Chinese commodity markets have been on a roller-coaster ride. Black commodities rebounded on Tuesday with coking coal and coke jumping over 5% and then on Wednesday major black commodities fell around 1%. At Friday’s close, coking coal and coke went up over 2.5% again. The risk is that in this less-mature market, the roller-coaster ride ends up becoming a one-way dive, and this could lead to panic as well as capital rushing out of China, and this could drive the Chinese Yuan lower. In terms of equity markets, new rules on trading halts could be released as soon as next week. The news rules intend to increase the odds of China’s A-shares to be included in the MSCI Index. MSCI will announce the decision in June. If the decision is a “yes”, China’s equity market is expected to attract a significant amount of capital flowing into the country, which would be a positive impact on Yuan rates."


AUD/USD - "Gains for the “Bremain” camp are likely to prove supportive for risk appetite and the Aussie alike, while increased chances of a “Brexit” outcome generate the opposite results. Whatever the merits of the arguments on either side of the debate, financial markets loathe uncertainty. With that in mind, it seems only logical that investors would prefer the status quo to an unprecedented exit of a major member state out of the EU."


USD/CAD - "At the same time, fresh comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Fed Chair Janet Yellen may fuel a further advance in USD/CAD as the central bank appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months. Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains ‘data-dependent,’ the central bank may continue to prepare households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.'


NZD/USD - "Like other economies tied to commodities and China, consistent economic new release surprises in New Zealand’s data alongside increasing doubts of any rate cuts from the RBNZ has led to an appreciation of the NZD. Understandably, a balance trade economy that is commodity-reliant favors a weaker US Dollar, but a stronger currency does make exports less attractive to other nations. Therefore, we’ll need to be on the lookout for Wheeler’s tone about this potential development to see if the price of NZD/USD goes outside of their tolerance level if we hold above the 200-DMA." 


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead to next week, traders will be closely eyeing the release of U.S. Durable Goods as well as the second read on 1Q GDP. Note that growth in the first quarter was disappointing (just 0.5% q/q), with consensus estimates calling for an upward revision to 0.8% q/q. Of particular interest will be the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) which is the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation and a stronger print could further stoke expectations for a June rate hike. We’ll also be looking for a fresh batch of central bank rhetoric with speeches from St Louis Fed President James Bullard, Governor Jerome Powell and Chair Janet Yellen on tap. If expectations for a June hike continue to be brought forward, look for gold remain on the defensive. Although the technical picture remains bleak, the decline is coming into near-term support targets which may offer prices a near-term reprieve from the recent downside pressure."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Outlook: 2016, May 22 - May 29 (based on the article)

The US dollar had a positive week, enjoying support from the Fed. UK and US GDP updates, US durable goods orders and key German surveys stand out. These are the highlights of this week.

  1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. A rise to 12.1 is expected.
  2. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. Business sentiment is expected to reach 106.9.
  3. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The BoC is not expected to change its monetary policy this month.
  4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
  5. UK GDP data: Thursday, 8:30. The number will likely be confirmed in this publication.
  6. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise 0.3% in April, as core orders are expected post the same gain.
  7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of weekly claims is expected to decline slightly to 275,000.
  8. US GDP data: Friday, 12:30.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech and 38 pips price movement

2016-05-24 03:05 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speaks]

[AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speaks] = speech at the Trans-Tasman Business Circle briefing, in Sydney.

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AUD/USD M5: 38 pips price movement by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech news event 


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

USD/JPY: intra-day ranging within 10-day high/low levels for direction

H4 price is located near and above 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the ranging market condition within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 10-day high at 110.58 located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 10-day low at 108.22 located near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish area.


United Overseas Bank is considering USD/JPY daily price to be continuing with the primary bearish market condition, and intra-day price to be reversed to the bearish trend:

"The bullish phase that started two weeks ago ended abruptly yesterday when 109.20 was breached. The current movement is viewed as a corrective pull-back which has scope to extend lower to 108.40/45. Resistance is at 110.00 and the recent high near 110.60 is unlikely to come under threat, at least not for the next several days."

  • If the price will break 110.58 resistance level on close H4 bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If the price will break 108.22 support level on close bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
  • www.efxnews.com
EUR/USD: Bearish: Next key level at 1.1140/45. [No change in view]. Momentum indicators continue to deteriorate and the prospect for the current bearish phase to extend lower to the next key level at 1.1140/45 is not high. Unless there is a clear break below 1.1180 within these couple of days, a move back above 1.1295 is enough to indicate that...