USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: JPY Machine Tool Orders and 47 pips price movement
2016-05-19 06:00 GMT | [JPY - Machine Tool Orders]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - Machine Tool Orders] = Machine Tool Orders is considered a leading
indicator of business capital spending, and increases are indicative of
stronger business confidence and a better future outlook. Higher capital
spending is also positive for the Japanese employment situation, as
companies will generally require new employees to run and maintain new
USD/CNH M5: 47 pips price movement by JPY Machine Tool Orders news event
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 40 pips price movement
2016-05-19 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
GBP/USD M5: 40 pips price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event
SILVER (XAG/USD) Intra-Day Price Action Analysis (based on the article)
H4 price is on breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price broke 200 period SMA to below for the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) has turned upbeat on the economy in
2016, Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. may opt to retain the
accommodative policy stance for an extended period as the central bank
continues to highlight the persistent slack in the real economy.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish CAD Trade: Headline & Core Rate of Inflation Exceed Market Forecast
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and 20 pips price movement
2016-05-20 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
USD/CAD M5: 20 pips price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Expert Advisors: Renko Line Break vs RSI EA
Sergey Golubev, 2014.03.28 07:39
Developed in the 18th century in Japan to trade rice, Renko charting is a
trend following technique. It is excellent for filtering out price
“noise” so traders can catch a major part a given Forex trend. It was
believed that the name “Renko” originated from the Japanese word ‘renga’
Similar to Kagi and Point and Figure charting, Renko ignores the element
of time used on candlesticks, bar charts, and line charts. Instead,
Renko focuses on sustained price movement of a preset amount of pips.
For example, a trader can set the bricks for as little as 5 pips or as
many as 100 or more. A new brick will not be formed until price has
moved 100 pips. It could take 24 hours for a new brick to form or it
could take just a few hours. However, no bricks will form until the
preset limit is achieved.
Find the Trend Direction
Renko charts can incorporate many of the usual technical indicators like
stochastics, MACD, and moving averages. Today’s strategy will marry up
Forex Renko charts with a 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to find
trend direction. Very simply, if price is trading above its 200 EMA,
then the trend is up. If price is trading below its 200 EMA, then the
trend is down.
This filter will give us a directional bias much like a compass or GPS.
We will look to only take long trades when the Renko bricks are trending
above the 200 EMA. On the other hand, in a downtrend, if the Renko
bricks are trending below the 200 EMA, then the trend down. Forex
traders will only look to short the market. One of the biggest mistakes
swing traders make is entering trades that go counter to the dominant
When to Get In
After the dominant trend direction is determined, traders can use the
simplicity of Renko charts with a single 13 period EMA as a ‘trigger’ to
signal an entry in the direction of the major trend. First, wait for at
least two green bricks to appear above the 13 EMA. Then enter long on
the appearance of the second green brick above the 13 EMA.
Exiting for Profit and for Loss
Once a trader is “triggered” into the trade, a protective stop can be
set one-brick size below the 13 EMA. As long as the bricks remain above
the 13 EMA, we look to stay with the trend. Just as the 13 EMA can get
you in a new trade, the same EMA can be used to stop out a winning trade
locking in profits.
Traders will need to manually move the stop one brick-size below 13 EMA
and the current price brick. You can see in the example above how the
combination of Renko and the 13 EMA helps traders stay with the trend a
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "There are 9, officially-scheduled speeches on the docket through the coming week,
and some of their content will be particularly palatable to rate
speculators. St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak about policy
normalization on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (to this
point vague on policy standing) will discuss energy and monetary policy
Wednesday, and Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak on Friday. Expect rate
forecasts to swing on key words – hawkish and dovish – while the Dollar
GBP/USD - "On the docket for next week we have just one piece of high-impact data, and even that report might be down-played. This is the 2nd
estimate GDP numbers from Q1 of this year. No revisions are expected
here, but should this number be revised significantly higher or lower
we’ll likely see GBP move in that direction (revisions higher bringing
strength, while revisions lower entail weakness). But far more important
at this point-in-time is the forward-looking analysis/fear of what may
come from the Brexit vote looming just a month away."
USD/CNH - "China’s domestic financial markets may bring
volatility to Yuan rates: As discussed last week, Chinese commodity
markets have been on a roller-coaster ride. Black commodities rebounded
on Tuesday with coking coal and coke jumping over 5% and then on
Wednesday major black commodities fell around 1%. At Friday’s close,
coking coal and coke went up over 2.5% again. The risk is that in this
less-mature market, the roller-coaster ride ends up becoming a one-way
dive, and this could lead to panic as well as capital rushing out of
China, and this could drive the Chinese Yuan lower. In terms of equity
markets, new rules on trading halts could be released as soon as next
week. The news rules intend to increase the odds of China’s A-shares to
be included in the MSCI Index. MSCI will announce the decision in June.
If the decision is a “yes”, China’s equity market is expected to attract
a significant amount of capital flowing into the country, which would
be a positive impact on Yuan rates."
AUD/USD - "Gains for the “Bremain” camp are likely to
prove supportive for risk appetite and the Aussie alike, while increased
chances of a “Brexit” outcome generate the opposite results. Whatever
the merits of the arguments on either side of the debate, financial
markets loathe uncertainty. With that in mind, it seems only logical
that investors would prefer the status quo to an unprecedented exit of a
major member state out of the EU."
USD/CAD - "At the same time, fresh comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Fed Chair Janet Yellen
may fuel a further advance in USD/CAD as the central bank appears to be
on course to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months.
Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
remains ‘data-dependent,’ the central bank may continue to prepare
households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs especially as the
U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.'"
NZD/USD - "Like other economies tied to commodities and China, consistent
economic new release surprises in New Zealand’s data alongside
increasing doubts of any rate cuts from the RBNZ has led to an appreciation of the NZD. Understandably, a balance trade economy that is commodity-reliant
favors a weaker US Dollar, but a stronger currency does make exports
less attractive to other nations. Therefore, we’ll need to be on the
lookout for Wheeler’s tone about this potential development to see if
the price of NZD/USD goes outside of their tolerance level if we hold
above the 200-DMA."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead to next week, traders will be
closely eyeing the release of U.S. Durable Goods as well as the second
read on 1Q GDP. Note that growth in the first quarter was disappointing
(just 0.5% q/q), with consensus estimates calling for an upward revision
to 0.8% q/q. Of particular interest will be the release of the Personal
Consumption Expenditure (PCE) which is the Fed’s preferred gauge on
inflation and a stronger print could further stoke expectations for a
June rate hike. We’ll also be looking for a fresh batch of central bank
rhetoric with speeches from St Louis Fed President James Bullard,
Governor Jerome Powell and Chair Janet Yellen on tap. If expectations
for a June hike continue to be brought forward, look for gold remain on
the defensive. Although the technical picture remains bleak, the decline
is coming into near-term support targets which may offer prices a
near-term reprieve from the recent downside pressure."
Weekly Outlook: 2016, May 22 - May 29 (based on the article)
The US dollar had a positive week, enjoying support from the Fed. UK and US GDP updates, US durable goods orders and key German surveys stand out. These are the highlights of this week.
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech and 38 pips price movement
2016-05-24 03:05 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speaks]
[AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speaks] = speech at the Trans-Tasman Business Circle briefing, in Sydney.
AUD/USD M5: 38 pips price movement by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech news event
Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
USD/JPY: intra-day ranging within 10-day high/low levels for direction
is located near and above 200
period SMA (200 SMA) and 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the ranging market condition within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:
United Overseas Bank is considering USD/JPY daily price to be continuing with the primary bearish market condition, and intra-day price to be reversed to the bearish trend:
"The bullish phase that started two weeks ago ended abruptly yesterday
when 109.20 was breached. The current movement is viewed as a corrective
pull-back which has scope to extend lower to 108.40/45. Resistance is
at 110.00 and the recent high near 110.60 is unlikely to come under
threat, at least not for the next several days."