Press review - page 397

[Sergey Golubev]

Example,

• U.S. Retail Sales core is more impacted than U.S. Retail Sales
• PPI core is more impacted than PPI
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls is more impacted than U.S. Unemployment Rate
• Employment Change is more impacted than Unemployment Rate

[Sergey Golubev]

More examples ...

Long ago :

• Jobless Claims news event was low impacted one (it is medium/high impacted for now).
  
• Chinese news events were low priority news (medium/high priority for now).
• French and Spanish news events were not moved EUR/USD price at all (medium priority now moving the price in significant way).
  
• EUR/USD price was moved in very smooth way with very low volatility (this pair is having medium/high volatility now).
  
• The sky was close to the Earth

Long time ago
The sun was shining bright
And everyone could see it
When you came up walking in
I could hardly believe it
You wanna be my friend
And always wanna love me
What about the things you do
Is always gonna haunt me

Long time ago

[meyti]

yea agreed with your comments, its hard to verify impact sometimes, i found forexpeacearmy.com calendar more detailed about impact, but who can guaranteed the result!! 

i don't know why forecast is more important than previous data while there are lots of diff data available for forcast from diff sources but there is only one data for previous ?!!

like this example : two calendar from diff sources . one is 0.5% another 0.6% i know the diff isn't much significant but for example for a robot the diff is diff !!!

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Some forecasts are publicly available - for example - forecasts for U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, and may be - for some other high impacted news events. Because forecasts are based on the consensus of the experts/analysts.

As to the different forecasts for many different news events in the different calendars so I think - many calendar creators know consensus forecasts but they are pretending that they are manking their own forecasts for their calendars based on their deep research for example ...

Example with US Jobless Claims for today (forecasts):

• forexfactory: 277K
• fxstreet: 270K
• dailyfx: 270K
• Metatrader 5: 270K

So, I think the consensus forecast is 270K

As to the calendar (about which calendar is the best one) so I think - forexfactory calendar was/is the best one for many years. But the other calendars are good as well (dailyfx, fxstreet). But I like MT5 calendar because we can add the events directly to the chart (add, delete and so on).

Why we need calendar? To know the name/time for news events. But most important for us is to know the impact/priority: low, medium or high.
Why? Because - if some news event is in medium or high priority so

• we can trade this news event, or
  
• we will stop our trading during this event.
  

Because medium/high impacted news events are moving the price (the price is mostly moved by medium/high impacted news events).

Thus, the best calendar is the one which is forecasting this impact telling me that some news event for today will be high impacted one.

[Sergey Golubev]

Because if some calendar is telling you that some news event will be high impacted one for today so it should mean the following: this news event will move the price for at least 15-20 pips in one direction. And in this case - we can trade this news event by pending orders placing on the chart for example.
So, good calendar is forecasting those priorities (low, medium or high) in right way for us to trade news events (or to stop trading during some news events).

[meyti]

thanks for good comments, i don't follow pending orders strategy  for big release, i receive the news result within my EA, just had doubt how my source is diff from calendar inside meta trader but your good explanation helped me, i think the best calendar is what the people use most, read in lots of diff forums that forexfactory is one of the best so if lots of people say it should be. 

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Retail Sales and 9 pips price movement

2016-05-12 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 1.1%
• forecast data is 1.0%
• actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

==========

==========

NZD/USD M5: 9 pips price movement by NZ Retail Sales news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German GDP and 17 pips price movement

2016-05-13 06:00 GMT | [EUR - German GDP]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

==========

EUR/USD M5: 17 pips price movement by German GDP news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

The correlation between Dollar Index and Brent Crude Oil

There is good article describing the correlation between Dollar Index and Crude Oil so let's evaluation the situation related to those prices.

---------

Dollar Index Weekly Outlook: secondary correction within the primary bullish.
Weekly price is testing 93.01 support level for the correction to be continuing with 91.92 as the nearest target to re-enter. If the price breaks 1-year low at 86.88 so the bearish reversal will be started, otherwise the price will be on ranging within the primary bullish condition.

---------

Brent Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: secondary rally within the primary bearish.
Weekly price is testing 48.25 resistance level to above for the bear market rally to be continuing with 53.95 level as the nearest target to re-enter. If the price breaks 1-year low at 69.57 so the bullish reversal will be started, otherwise the price will be on ranging within the primary bearish condition.

---------

And for now - please look at those two charts below just to make an idea about the correlation between Dollar Index and Brent Crude Oil:

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.13 10:03

The correlation between Dollar Index and Brent Crude Oil

There is good article describing the correlation between Dollar Index and Crude Oil so let's evaluation the situation related to those prices.

Currency Correlations, Part I

Currency Correlations, Part II

MFCS Currency Correlation Chart - indicator for MetaTrader 5