2014-05-12 08:05 GMT (or 10:05 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - New Loans]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
CNY New Loans = Value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the previous month
Facebook Stock in Bearish Continuation Pattern? – May 12, 2014
Facebook stock prices have been moving sideways for nearly a month
already, as traders try to figure out the direction for the online
company. The price has broken below the 50 SMA (simple moving average)
recently, indicating that a downtrend is in the cards.
A break below the current consolidation pattern could mean more losses
for Facebook stock, as it might form a head and shoulders pattern. This
is a classic reversal signal in financial markets, indicating that
Facebook stock price could eventually trade below the 200 SMA.
Facebook Stock Price Forecast
Take note that the head and shoulders chart pattern is roughly 20
points in height, which means that the resulting selloff could be of the
same size. Sentiment for the company has turned sour after Facebook
acquired a virtual reality company earlier this year.
On the other hand, an upside break from the current consolidation
pattern and the 100 SMA could mean more gains for Facebook stock,
possibly until the previous highs around $72.50. Analysts have marked
Facebook as a "hold" in terms of stock signals.
Take note that the company's debt-to-equity ratio is low but is
currently higher than the industry average. In addition, revenue growth
is also higher than the industry average. Strong earnings growth have
driven Facebook stock prices for the most part of 2013 and could
continue to do so for the rest of this year.
The upcoming IPO of Alibaba
could take the limelight and demand away from Facebook though, as this
Chinese online retailer is set to take the world by storm. Despite that,
Facebook prices could continue to draw support from the company's
recently announced mobile ad platform. The Facebook Audience Network
could allow the company to take advantage of mobile ad efforts in
properties it doesn't control.
Alibaba IPO: Things You Should Know
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is a Chinese holding company that recently
announced its plans to offer an IPO. This could be the world's largest
initial public offering, as analysts estimate that Alibaba could be
valued at $150 billion to $250 billion.
The lower end of the range would show that the company is as valuable
as Facebook while the higher end of the range has a valuation close to
that of Walmart. The company is currently the world's largest online
marketplace, with 231 million active buyers annually and roughly $248
billion of merchandise moving through its sites in 2013. This means that
it has more transaction volumes compared to Amazon and Ebay combined.
With its headquarters and client base in China, investing in the
company is as good as investing in the world's second largest economy.
In the country, Alibaba actually holds 80% of the e-commerce market
It has several subsites, including Taobao which is a free-for-all
bazaar featuring hundreds of millions of goods from eight million
merchants. It has Tmall for higher-end items such as Nike and Gap.
Aside from generating revenue from sales commissions, Alibaba
also makes money on its advertisements. In 2013, revenue climbed 62% to
$8 billion and is projected to grow at a 55% pace each year. In terms
of company expenses, Alibaba is able to limit this by not keeping
inventory. This means that the company is able to have a high operating
margin compared to Google and Facebook.
Take note as well that the Chinese economy is expanding thrice as
fast as the United States. Analysts estimate that the stock price could
grow by 30-fold well into 2015 if the recovery keeps going on in China.
The deal is set to be launched a few months of now but buying pressure
could escalate once the Alibaba IPO is announced.
CBI Lifts U.K GDP Outlook; Sees First Rate Hike In Q1 2015
The Confederation of British Industry on Monday upgraded U.K.
economic outlook as the recovery continues to take hold and brought
forward the estimated date of interest rate hike to the first quarter of
lobby forecast 3 percent economic growth this year, up from the prior
estimate of 2.6 percent. Likewise, growth for 2015 was lifted to 2.7
percent from 2.5 percent.
"Prospects are bright and we expect the
recovery to broaden out this year, with greater support from business
investment in particular," John Cridland, CBI Director-General, said.
The CBI estimates 8.3 percent rise in business investment this year and
9.1 percent in 2015.
However, momentum in household spending
should fade somewhat later this year as improvements in consumer
confidence are unlikely to improve at the same pace, it said. The lobby
projects 2.4 percent rise in consumer spending in this year and next.
exports growth is expected to pick-up, this is likely to be partially
offset by accelerating imports growth, as domestic demand strengthens.
As a result, the contribution to growth from net trade will remain
Following upward revisions to GDP growth, the CBI expects
the Bank of England to raise key rates by 25 basis points in the first
quarter of 2015.
The CBI expects unemployment to average 6.8 percent this year and to have fallen to 6.2 percent by the end of 2015.
lobby expects consumer price inflation to average 1.8 percent in 2014
and to remain close to 2 percent in 2015. Near-term inflationary
pressures appear to be muted. Further, the appreciation in sterling is
also likely to push down on import prices, which should gradually feed
through to consumer prices, it said.
On housing, the CBI said
transactions are picking up firmly. House price inflation is expected to
rise to 8.2 percent this year from 3.6 percent in 2013. In 2015, house
price growth is seen at 5.1 percent.
The CBI said political
uncertainty remains a major risk to the recovery. The lobby urged
politicians to stick with what is working and tackle the UK's long-term
Among the measures the CBI is calling for are
committing to eliminate the budget deficit, scrapping the immigration
target and raising the tier 2 visa cap, ensuring big infrastructure
decisions that are taken with a long-term strategic view and avoiding
damaging market interventions.
Twitter doesn't have to grow into Facebook for the stock to pay off, Robert Peck says.
The current share price makes Twitter worth ubying “solely predicated on
Twitter continuing to narrow the 50% monetization gap, while still
assuming user growth deceleration,” he continues.
Shares of Twitter, which are down 50% this year and recently fell below
$30 for the first time since last November’s IPO, were up more than 3%
at $33.06 before the opening bell Monday.
High Frequency Trading
2014-05-13 05:30 GMT (or 07:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Industrial Production]
CNY Industrial Production = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities
China's Industrial Output, Retail Sales Growth Weaker Than Forecasts
China's industrial production growth eased unexpectedly in April,
data showed Tuesday. Retail sales also expanded at a slower pace in
Industrial production grew 8.7 percent year-on-year in
April, which was slightly slower than the 8.8 percent rise seen in
March, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Production was forecast
to rise by 8.9 percent.
Retail sales advanced 11.9 percent in April from a year ago, while the growth was forecast to remain unchanged at 12.2 percent.
January to April, fixed asset investment increased 17.3 percent
compared to 17.6 percent growth logged during January to March and
expectations for 17.7 percent rise.
2014-05-13 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts
EUR/USD got its ZEW, and fell down
opened the day at 1.3757, but since that time moved up by tiny steps
reaching 1.3770 right before the release, and posting 1.3746 right
after.The first catalyst of EuropeThe
pair showed timid moves higher on hopes for the stronger German data
which helped it to go above 1.3770 area just before the readings came
out. The Economic sentiment index showed downward moves from last
December when it posted multi-year high at 62. And this time the market
expected to see another decrease from 43.2 in April to 41.3. However,
the data came out at depressing 33.1 supporting the move of the pair to
1.3746 right after release, and making the market believe that Germany
has hard times with strong national currency damaging export activity.
The next target of the pair at 1.3717 support level.What are today’s key EUR/USD levels?Today's
central pivot point can be found at 1.3760, with support below at
1.3745, 1.3742 and 1.3717, with resistance above at 1.3773, 1.3788, and
1.3801. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish, with the 200SMA at 1.3862
and the daily 20EMA at 1.3832. Hourly RSI is bearish at 42.