Press review - page 550

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, August 27 - September 03 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was looking good during the last full week of August and remained range-bound. What’s next? The inflation figures stand out as we turn the page into September. 

1. Monetary data: Monday, 8:00. The European Central Bank measures the amount of money in circulation (M3 Money Supply) and private loans. The ECB’s expansionary policies pushed the volume of loans back to growth after a period of declines.
2. German GfK Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 8:00. The score of 10.8 seen in July is the highest in many years.
3. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 6:45. Consumer spending surprisingly dropped by 0.8% in June, rose than expected. Figures so far this year have been quite mixed.
4. French GDP: Tuesday, 6:45. According to the initial release for Q2, the French economy grew by 0.5%, a robust rate of growth but slightly below the euro-zone average of 0.6%. This publication will likely confirm the first one.
5. Spanish Flash CPI: Wednesday, 7:00.
6. German CPI: Wednesday, during the morning, with the all-German number at 12:00. In July, prices in Germany advanced by 0.4%, double the early expectations, eventually pushing the euro-zone numbers higher.
7. German Retail Sales: Thursday, 6:00.
8. French CPI: Thursday, 6:45. Similar to Germany, also France’s prices came out higher than expected, but they still slipped by 0.3%.
9. German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 7:55. This report is also the last one before the German elections on September 24th. Another drop will support Chancellor Angela Merkel.
10. CPI (preliminary): Thursday, 9:00. The preliminary numbers for August will shape expectations for the ECB meeting.
11. Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 9:00. An unemployment rate of 9.1% was seen in June, the lowest in 8 years. Another slide is on the cards.
12. Manufacturing PMIs: Friday, 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final figures for France at 7:50, final German numbers at 7:55 and the final euro-zone figure at 8:00.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, August 27 - September 03 (based on the article)

GBP/USD was making attempts to recover but did not go anywhere fast and found itself grinding lower. The upcoming week feature the manufacturing PMI as well as other figures.

1. Nationwide HPI: Tuesday, 6:00. Various housing price indices have been pointing downwards, but Nationwide’s figure has shown a rise of 0.3% in July.
2. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. The British Retail Consortium’s measure provides another gauge on consumer activity. It dropped by 0.4% y/y in June.
3. Net Lending to Individuals: Wednesday, 8:30. The level of lending indicates economic activity but also a credit binge that the BOE fears. A rise of 5.6 billion was reported in June, higher than expected
4. Mortgage Approvals: Wednesday, 8:30. This official figure by the BOE has shown stability in the number of approvals at 65K, for the third consecutive month in June.
5. GfK Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 23:01. This 2000-strong survey by GfK has been leaning lower in the past few months. A disappointing drop to -12 was reported in July, worse than projected.
6. Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 8:30. Markit’s purchasing managers’ indicator for the manufacturing sector beat expectations and reached 55.1 points in July.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, August 27 - September 03 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen was leaning lower in a week that saw further political issues for President Trump. Nevertheless, the pair maintains a distance from the 108.10 level which remains critical.

1. The last week of August and the first day of September provide a lot of action. A revised measure of GDP, consumer confidence and a short buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls stand out. Will wages finally rise in the US? The report for August will probably show more of the same.
2. In Japan, we will get industrial output, retail sales, and unemployment. However, politics in the US and geopolitics will move the safe-haven yen more than anything else.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly AUD/USD Outlook: 2017, August 27 - September 03 (based on the article)

The Australian dollar stabilized on high ground, consolidating previous gains. What’s next? Australian capital expenditure and Chinese data stand out in a busier week.

1. Building Approvals: Wednesday, 1:30. A rise of 10.9% in June will probably be followed by a drop now.
2. Construction Work Done: Wednesday, 1:30. We will now receive the data for Q2.
3. HIA New Home Sales: Thursday, 1:00. A rise could be seen now.
4. Chinese official Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:00. A score of 51.4 points was seen in July, within the recent ranges.
5. Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday, 1:30. A rise of 0.3% was seen in Q1 2017, within early expectations.
6. Private Sector Credit: Thursday, 1:30. Growth accelerated to 0.6% in June, after slower months beforehand.
7. AIG Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 23:30. The manufacturing sector continues growing nicely according to the Australian Industry Group, with a score of 56 in July, the highest since April.
8. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:45. The Caixin PMI is already an independent measure of the manufacturing sector of Australia’s No. 1 trading partner and tends to have a significant impact on the Aussie. In July, the figure beat expectations and reached 51.1 points. However, this still reflects slower growth than in past years.
9. Commodity Prices: Friday, 6:30. A growth rate of 17.1% was seen in July, below 23.7% that was seen beforehand.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily bullish; 1.1941 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.1941 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 1.1661 support level located in the beginning of the daily bearish reversal to be started.

Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above together with 1.1941 resistance evel for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The Euro posted the largest daily gain in two months against the US Dollar, clearing the swing high set in early August and hinting the rising trend launched in mid-April is resuming. The move higher follows the currency pair’s completion of a bullish Flag chart pattern, as expected. From here, a daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1964 opens the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 1.2057. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 1.1848 paves the way for a retest of the August 17 swing low at 1.1662."
• "Current positioning does not seem to offer an actionable trade setup. Prices are too close to immediate resistance to justify getting long from a risk/perspective whereas the absence of a defined bearish reversal warns that taking up the short side is premature. On balance, staying flat seems most prudent for now."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - ranging within/around Ichimoku cloud for the direction of the strong trend to be started (based on the article)

Daily price is ranging within and around Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started.

If the daily price breaks 1.2942 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 1.2773 support level on close D1 bar so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging market condition within the levels.

• "The British Pound has been on quite the rollercoaster so far in 2017. After coming into the year wrapped-up in Brexit worries, the pair began to show bullish tendencies as the prospect of rising inflation became more real. Inflation for the month of May perked all the way up to 2.8%, giving ammunition to bulls under the premise that the BoE might be forced away from their uber-dovish monetary stance. But after inflation came-in a bit tamer in June and July, those concerns began to recede into the background and when the Bank of England met earlier in the month of August, it appeared that those worries were ready to fade to black. "
• "The British Pound was rather strong coming into August, but after the Bank of England’s Super Thursday on the second trading day of the month saw the bank insert another dovish set of comments, the pair had been sliding-lower as we came into last week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. As we neared the start of the event, GBP/USD moved-down to a fresh six-week-low at 1.2774. But as we heard from Chair Yellen and Mario Draghi on Friday, another gust of USD-weakness took over, and GBP/USD began to rally off of last week’s lows. This produced a morning star formation that, at least so far, has led to bullish continuation up to a key zone of resistance. The price of 1.2928 is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bullish move, taking the June low up to the August high; and 1.2960 is a batch of swing-lows that had developed after the initial re-break below 1.3000."

[Sergey Golubev]

Consumer Confidence Index

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CNH: Consumer Confidence Index

2017-08-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 120.0
• forecast data is 122.6
• actual data is 122.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

• "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in July, improved further in August. The Index now stands at 122.9 (1985=100), up from 120.0 in July. The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0."

==========

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events

==========

USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events

==========

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Consumer Confidence Index news events

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD (XAU/USD) - daily bullish breakout; 1,300/1,375 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price is located far above from Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on bullish breakout for 1,300 resistance level to be crossing for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The most recent driver to provide fuel for Gold prices was last night’s missile launch out of North Korea. This time, North Korea’s missile traveled over Japan, raising worries of an actual attack. This brought a brief run of risk aversion to global markets, which has begun to recede as we’ve moved deeper into the U.S. session. This is likely why we’ve seen a chunk of that recent top-side breakout erased as a retracement has begun to show. This highlights the danger of trying to chase Gold prices at the moment: Volatility is likely going to continue to show on both sides as these very pressing themes of Dollar weakness and global risk aversion continue to develop."
• "For traders looking at taking on long exposure in Gold, they’d likely want to wait for some element of support to show before triggering the position. Given the response on Friday, the prior swing-low in Gold is all the way down to $1,274.45, which, as of this writing, would be more than $42 in risk. That would necessitate a move to $1,359 to justify a one-to-one risk-reward ratio, which would require breaking through multiple resistance levels on the way-up. Instead, an inside move to a deeper support level can open the door for bullish continuation strategies. The level we mentioned about around $1,308 could be interesting, as this was the pre-Election swing-high in Gold prices. Below that, we have the prior breakout zone that runs from $1,296-$1,300 that could be usable for secondary support. Each of these could afford a more efficient entry with stops below that prior swing."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Building Approvals and range price movement 

2017-08-30 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

• past data is 11.7%
• forecast data is -5.4%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. 

==========

From official report :

• "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.7% in July and has risen for three months."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 1.7% in July following a rise of 11.7% in the previous month."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Building Approvals news event