Press review - page 514

[Sergey Golubev]

Why Did Google Pop And Amazon Drop (based on the article)

H4 shares broke Ichimoku cloud for the bullish breakout: the price broke Senkou Span line together with key resistance levels to above for the reversal to the primary bullish market condition. The priuce is testing 916.79 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. 

• "On Thursday night, Google reported earnings that handily beat Street consensus. The company reported earnings of $7.73 per share on revenues of $24.75 billion for the March quarter. The Street had been looking for earnings of $7.40 per share on revenues of $24.2 billion going in to the earnings event. A sizable beat by any count especially if one considers the size of the company."
• "The same night Amazon also reported its March quarter results that came in ahead of Street consensus. The online retail behemoth reported earnings of $1.48 per share on revenues of $35.75 billion versus Street expectations of $1.13 per share and $35.31 billion going into the earnings event."
• "Google ended the day higher by 3.7% or $33.08 per share at $924.52 per share after hitting an intra-day high of $935.88 per share. So, Google closed roughly $11 points lower than its intra-day high. Google shares traded at 2.3x its average daily volume of the last 90 days."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and 16 pips range price movement 

2017-05-02 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From cnbc article:

• "The Reserve bank of Australia held its benchmark cash rate at a record low 1.5 percent as widely expected, but noting the housing market presents challenges to policy."
• "Prices have been rising briskly in some markets and declining in others. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases are the slowest for two decades. Growth in housing debt has outpaced the slow growth in household incomes. The recently announced supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness."

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AUD/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2017-05-02 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 51.2
• forecast data is 51.4
• actual data is 50.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:

• "The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – registered 50.3 in April, down from 51.2 in March to signal only a marginal improvement in overall operating conditions. Moreover, the latest upturn in the health of the sector was the weakest seen since last September."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225 Index - daily bullish breakout (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the breakout with the bullish reversal: Chinkou Span line crossed the historical price to above together with Tenkan-sen/Kijun/sen line bullish signal and 19,289 resistance level to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Back on April 11 the index succumbed to a fall which was small in magnitude but potentially bigger in implication because that move snapped to the downside a trading range which had endured for 2017. Indeed, it was put in place by the long climb up from the lows of June 2016."
• "Strong support was rather scant below that and the entire rise at least from November could have been threatened. That could potentially have taken the index all the way back down to 16898.
• "However, that fall seems to have been comprehensively rejected by the last few sessions’ action, which has in turn broken a downtrend channel which had been in place for nearly a month."

[Sergey Golubev]

Apple shares - daily bullish breakout (based on the article)

Daily shares price broke 145.46 and 147.19 resistance levels together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish breakout to be continuing.

• "KGI Securities speculated in a report yesterday that Apple would be unveiling a Siri-based smart home product in order to take on Amazon's Echo. The analyst at KGI, Ming-Chi Kuo, stated that there is a greater than 50% chance that Apple will debut the device at their World Wide Developer Conference (WWDC) scheduled for June 5-9."
• "So, maybe Apple is late to the game. However, if they are indeed going to unveil an Echo-like device next month at WWDC, get ready for another hit product from Apple and from an investment point of view, get ready for Street estimates to move higher as well. As the title suggests, from product and investment points of view, better late than never indeed."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Employment Change and 29 pips range price movement 

2017-05-02 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Employment Change]

• past data is 0.7%
• forecast data is 0.8%
• actual data is 1.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people.

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From official report:

• "In the March 2017 quarter, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 4.9 percent. The fall reflected 6,000 fewer people being unemployed over the quarter."
• "In the March 2017 quarter, seasonally adjusted employment rose 1.2 percent, with 29,000 more people employed than in the December 2016 quarter. In that quarter, there was a 0.7 percent increase from the September 2016 quarter."

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NZD/USD M5: 29 pips range price movement by NZ Employment Change news event

[Sergey Golubev]

How to Use Price Action to Trade New Trends (based on the article)

‘The trend is your friend’

We’ve all heard it, and it makes perfectly logical sense; but in practice, this advice is so opaque that it’s practically worthless. Because even if you’re on the ‘right’ side of whatever trend is showing at the moment, the timing and entry into that setup is likely what’s going to determine one’s success or failure on that individual trade. So, it’s not enough to just find the direction of the trend and then ‘hope’ that we’re right; we also have to find support (or resistance for down-trends), we need to be patient and exercise discipline while waiting for the setup to build, and then we have to identify risk levels so that if/when we’re ‘wrong’, we have a line in the sand with which to bail in order to save the rest of our equity. In this article, we’re going to share a five-step process for traders looking to trade into new or ‘fresh’ trends using price action.

Know Your Time Frames

New traders often wonder ‘which time frame is ‘best’’? This is very similar to asking ‘what is the best temperature’. Well, it’s relative. Some like it colder, others like it warmer; but by and large most people are in the same ballpark range of comfort. Chart time frames work like this, as well. If you’re a scalper looking to hold positions no longer than 20 or 30 minutes, the setup on the monthly or weekly chart is probably going to be so divorced from the dynamics that you’re following that you might as well be looking at another market altogether. And if you’re trading a monthly setup, what’s taking place on the one or three minute chart is probably going to be pretty inconsequential to your ‘big picture’ setup.

Don’t Chase the Breakout

The period that is often most dangerous to trade a new move is also when it happens to be the most attractive, and that’s when prices are breaking out of previous support or resistance. Breakouts can be difficult to trade, even for experienced traders, because by nature it’s the process of something ‘new’ happening and thereby there’s no recent data or observations from which we might be able to derive strategy.

Wait for Support to Show-Up Around Prior Resistance (for up-trends)

Watching a fresh breakout can be trying for a trader’s patience, and for the new trader that can be a challenging exercise as their only real option whilst watching a breakout take place is to either chase it, or fade it (go short after a bullish breakout). Given that a breakout is, by definition, a ‘new’ observation of higher or lower prices, this is an inopportune time to open positions.

Use the Shorter Time Frame to Confirm Support & Early Stage of Directional Move

Once the breakout has been found, and once the pullback has gotten under-way, traders can begin to plot their trend-side entries. This is where the greater detail and granularity of that shorter-term chart can be helpful from the additional perspective that’s provided.

Setting Risk and Bailing When Proper

After the trade has been identified, traders are going to want to add a stop as they trigger or shortly after they open the position. That way, if matters reverse, the trader has some element of down-side protection. But key here is one of expectations: Price action is rarely perfect, and perhaps more to the point, price action swings are blatantly obvious and most market makers can visibly see where prices had previously reversed. Most market makers also know these points are often used for stop or limit placement, so these price action swings can be like a red beacon for ‘free liquidity’ for market makers executing on sitting orders.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD - 300-day high to be testing for the bullish breakout to be continuing (based on the article)

Daily price is above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is testing 300-day high to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The USD/CAD has broken to new yearly highs this afternoon, despite a general US Dollar selloff in the market. As this trend develops, traders should continue to monitor upcoming new that may help provide further direction for the pair. This includes both US and Canadian employment figures which are set for release at 12:30 GMT this Friday. Expectations for US Non-farm Payrolls (APR) are set at 190k, while CAD Net Change in Employment (APR) is expected in at 10.0k"
• "Technically, the USD/CAD remains in an uptrend going into Friday’s news. If the standing trend is set to continue, traders should watch for a breakout above the new 2017 high found at 1.3757. However in the event of a price reversal, traders should look for the pair to first decline below its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average). This line is currently found at 1.3607 and continues to act as a critical values of support. A breakout below this point would suggest a shift in the pair’s short term trend."

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: breakdown with the bearish reversal

2017-05-03 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -3.6M
• forecast data is -3.3M
• actual data is -0.9M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: breakdown with the bearish reversal. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA by bouncing from 50.89 to below to be testing 50.18 support level for the M5 bearish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 50.89 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 50.18 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: breakdown with the bearish reversal. The price was bounced from Senkou Span line of Ichimoku to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is on testing the support level at 50.13 to below for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 53.28 resistance on close bar to above so the reversal of daily reversal to the bullish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 50.13 support level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-05-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 3.66B
• forecast data is 3.33B
• actual data is 3.11B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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From official report:

• "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,804m in March 2017, an increase of $265m (7%) on the surplus in February 2017."
• "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,107m in March 2017, a decrease of $550m (15%) on the surplus in February 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event