Press review - page 509

[Sergey Golubev]

CAC 40 and French Election (based on the article)

Daily price is above ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on secondary correction to be started on the open daily bar for now with 4,953 bearish reversal support level.

• "France's presidential election is adding to the existing political uncertainty worldwide as it raises several questions on the future of the euro area, the International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Tuesday."
• "The IMF Chief said she faced anxious questions over the French election in every country she visited in recent months. The election debate also weighs on the confidence and stability of the euro area, Lagarde added."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - bullish ranging near 200-day SMA waiting for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart and below 100-day SMA with the secondary ranging market condition.

• If the price breaks 200 SMA to below together with 98.66 support level so the bearish reversal will be started.
• If the price breaks 100 SMA together with 101.25 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
• if not so the price will be in bullish ranging waiting for direction

"DXY held trendline support at the March low and just found resistance from the median line of the 2016 channel. I don’t have a strong opinion on direction right now but the barriers are the January-March line and 2016 trendline. A move on either side of these lines (daily close) ideally ushers in the next directional move."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Consumer Price Index and 41 pips range price movement 

2017-04-19 23:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]

• past data is 0.4%
• forecast data is 0.8%
• actual data is 1.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report:

• "The consumers price index (CPI) rose 1.0 percent (up 1.0 percent with seasonal adjustment)."
• "From the March 2016 quarter to the March 2017 quarter: The CPI inflation rate increased 2.2 percent."

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NZD/USD M5: 41 pips range price movement by NZ Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - daily price broke 200-day SMA for the bullish (based on the article)

Daily price broke 200 SMA to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is testing 1.2903 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be condition, otherwise - ranging waiting for direction.

• "Prime Minister Theresa May announced that general elections would be held early, on June 8th of this year. The move was largely applauded as cogent political strategy in the effort of gaining a Conservative super majority to push through Brexit negotiations. And this very much may be the case; but given the volatility seen in global elections over the past year, it would seem that a bit of reservation should be due before any long-term prognostications are built based on early polling numbers. "
• "The immediate impact to the British Pound was a quick run of strength that finally sent price action above the 1.2775-level. Prices continued to run in a rather aggressive fashion, all the way up to 1.2903 before sellers came-in. This led many outlets to claim that PM May’s announcement was a ‘game-changer’; and again, this very much may be the case but for traders putting money on the line, this is a leap-of-faith that shouldn’t yet be initiated until more information presents itself. "

[Sergey Golubev]

The best stocks in FTSE 100: Unilever (adapted from the article)

Daily share price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA to above to be reversed from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition. The price is on bullish ranging within 4080 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 3905 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

• "Consumer goods giant Unilever bounced in Thursday trading following the release of robust financials, the stock last 2% trading higher from the midweek close.""Excluding the upcoming sale of its soon-to-be-offloaded spreads likeFlora and Stork, Unilever saw underlying sales during the first quarter of 2017 rise 3.4%."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index - daily bullish with the secondary correction; 11,980 level is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 12,411 resistance level to below for the correction to be started with 11,980 support level to be broken for the correction to be continuing and with 11,878 bearish reversal support level as a nearest daily target.

• "Should the market get a little pep in its step, we’re looking to 12050 as resistance, and then the underside of the broken channel, which at this time comes in at over 12100. On the hourly chart the DAX is running lower in a descending channel, which we will use as a short-term guide; stay below the upper parallel and a bearish bias remains intact, while a jump above will warrant consideration for alternative paths. The lower parallel may act as minor support with further selling, but the next significant swing point comes in at 11850, with 11916 as a possible stopping point along the way. Below 11850, we look for 11722 to come into play."
• "All-in-all, the game-plan is to continue to focus on short-term entries from the short-side, but should the DAX violate the current bearish posturing we will be quick to change gears."

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil Price Forecast: daily bearish reversal; 52.55 level is the key (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal: the price is testing descending triangle pattern together with 52.55 support level to below for the bearish tred to be continuing.

"While OPEC may be winning in their battle to balance the global Oil market, it is not necessarily happening on the timeframe they would prefer. Naturally, it is not helpful that Shale production is at its highest levels since 2015. The U.S. Shale resurgence coupled with OPEC’s supply management continues to provide hope for Oil bulls. While Crude dropped ~3% on Wednesday, there is also likely to be volatility on expiration-position squaring is occurring as May WTI contract expires Thursday."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 62 pips range price movement 

2017-04-21 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report:

• "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in March, following a 2.0% gain in February."
• "On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI declined 0.2% in March, after falling 0.3% in February."

==========

USD/CAD M5: 62 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - ranging bearish near 200-day SMA reversal level (based on the article)

Daily price is below 200 SMA for the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 0.6888 support level located on the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed, and
• 0.7145 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish reversal to be started.

By the way, if the price breaks 0.7051 resistance to above so the bullish reversal with 0.7145 resistance may be the next step with this situation for example.

• "The New Zealand Dollar is mired in a choppy congestion range below the 0.71 figure against its US cousin as prices struggle to find lasting directional momentum. Still, the broader longer-term trend bias appears to favor the downside."
• "Interim support is at 0.6975, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close below that opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.6905. Alternatively, a push above the 38.2% Fib retracement at 0.7076 paves the way for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 0.7133."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The US Dollar fell for a second consecutive week as the Fed rate hike outlook continued to deteriorate. Geopolitical jitters are almost certainly a big part of that story, even if the narrative has somewhat shifted from US tensions with Russia and North Korea to EU politics. Homegrown factors have also emerged however amid growing worries about slowing economic growth. An ominous picture is painted by the closely watched GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed. It updates quarterly GDP growth projections with each incoming bit of relevant economic data. That forecast now predicts that output will add just 0.5 percent in the three months to March. That is far weaker than the 1-2 percent range expected by the markets."