Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for Brent Crude Oil - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.28 15:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and Brent Crude Oil: U.S. GDP Second Release

2017-02-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 1.9%
  • forecast data is 2.1%
  • actual data is 1.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent." 
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 1.9 percent." 

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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Brent Crude Oil M5: 19 range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.07 06:15

Brent Crude Oil - ready to go (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located near and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is moving along the upper border of Ichimoku cloud to be ready for bearish reversal or to the bullish trend to be resumed.

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  • "Crude oil prices continue to trade off of yearly highs, but have failed to breakout significantly for the 2017 trading year. As such, traders continue to wait for a market catalyst to cause the commodity to breach key values of either support or resistance. Key news for this week includes the release of US employment data this Friday. Expectations for US NFP (Feb) is set at +190k, while the US Unemployment Rate is set to be released at 4.7%."
  • "Technically the price of crude oil remains in an ongoing daily trading range, which is depicted below. Current daily resistance remains located at the January 3rd 2017 peak at $55.67. Alternatively, crude oil prices remain supported above the January 10th low at $51.34. As prices continue to ping between these values, traders may continue to reference these points for a potential market breakout."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.10 15:08

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, BTC/USD and Brent Crude Oil: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-03-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 238K
  • forecast data is 196K
  • actual data is 235K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining."
  • "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down from +157,000 to +155,000, and the change for January was revised up from +227,000 to +238,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 9,000 more than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 209,000 per month."

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EUR/USD M5: 45 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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GBP/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Brent Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Brent Crude Oil H12 timeframe: the price was on bearish breakdown by crossing Ichimoku cloud to below for the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is forming the bullish retracement pattern to be bounced from 51 resistance level to above for the secondary rally to be started.

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 18:39

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)


Crude Oil - "The EIA figures inevitably prompted worries about the balance between supply and demand as US shale extraction capacity grows. With a lower breakeven price than many other sources of oil, fears that US output will flood the markets sent them into a spin, along with energy stocks and the currencies of oil-producing countries like Norway, Russia and Canada."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.16 08:18

Brent Crude Oil - daily bearish with 50.23 support level (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the reversal from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition. The price is testing support level at 51.12 and 50.23 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging.


  • "Before Crude Oil broke down and traded below the 200-DMA ($48.65 as of 3/15/17), Oil and Gas Energy & Exploration stocks had broken down and appear to be leading Oil, so it continues to be worth watching. The rolling 20-day correlation for Crude Oil forward contract and the S&P Oil Producer Index is +.598 as of March 15, which is significant."
  • "The price of Crude Oil recently traded below the 200-DMA with RSI(5) registering a bearish extreme. If the price pops higher as it did in April, August, and November of last year, the Bulls may feel as though they’ve dodged a bullet. However, the Crude Oil market doesn’t have the fundamental support that other commodity sectors like base metals have, which could lead to an eventual breakdown toward the November low of $43.75/42.25. "
  • "While such a breakdown would hurt, price holding above the November low could indicate a longer-term consolidation lasting much of the year, which is when larger-range Fibonacci Retracement is best used. Either an immediate move back above the 200-DMA or hold of the November low would keep a neutral market still anticipating an eventual move back toward the upper $50/bbl region."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:35

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Brent Crude Oil (based on the article)


Brent Crude Oil - "The recent drop in price could be due to hedge funds getting out of the market reducing their extreme long positions relative to institutional hedges. Given the large buying volume possibly exiting the market, it’s fair to ask what would cause them to re-enter the market? Many are counting on hopes of rising demand and an OPEC-cut extension, but it may require a larger shift in the supply-demand imbalance despite OPEC’s recent efforts as the average US Crude Stockpiles have gained steadily due to Shale production. Hedge funds are likely to require much lower prices before accumulation begins again or a shock higher in Bullish Momentum, which has currently vanished."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.21 08:01

Crude Oil and the correlation in trading: Crude Oil Pitfalls (based on the article)


Daily price is on secondary correction which was started in the beginning of March this year: price broke key support levels to below for 200-day SMA value at 50.8 to be testing to below for the daily bearish reversal. On the monthly basis - the price dropped by 8.06% to below (monthly) which is indicating the high volatility for example. 

  • "Crude oil is very, very volatile, much more volatile than Forex currency pairs. For this reason, most brokers enforce a considerably lower maximum true leverage on crude oil trades compared to Forex currency pairs. Even though brokers and regulators are doing a little something to try to save you from blowing up, you still have a lot of work to do because the minimum position size you can take in crude oil is usually much larger than in a Forex currency pair too."
  • "The next issue is the high volatility of crude oil. Over an average week between 2001 and 2014, the price ranged by 7.28%. Finally, in long-term trades, crude oil often carries higher overnight financing charges than the Canadian dollar."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.22 17:41

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish ranging, daily bearish reversal

2017-03-22 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -0.2M
  • forecast data is 1.9M
  • actual data is 5.0M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.0 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bearish. The price was ranging near and below 200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 200 SMA to below for 50.14 support level to be testing for the bearish trend to be resumed.

If the price breaks 50.52 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 50.14 support so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: bearish reversal. The price is breaking 200-day SMA together with 50.23 to below for the reversal to the bearish market condition.


If daily price breaks 57.42 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 58.35 nearest bullish target.
If the price breaks 52.63 support level to below so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:38

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)


Crude Oil - "On Friday, we got word from Baker Hughes International that the U.S. Oil Rig Count Report had risen 21 rigs to 652 active rigs. This number is over double the number of active rigs from last summer at around 330. As you would expect, the majority of rigs being reinitiated are in the cheaper to produce shale regions."


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