Press review - page 459

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is below 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels:

• 1.0657 resistance level located in the beginning of the local uptrend as the secondary bear market rally within the primary ebarish condition to be started, and
• 1.0524 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish trend to be resumed.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0455/60 as the next nearest bearish target:

"After several days of lethargic trading, we noted in the Chart of the Day update yesterday that EUR has to see a ‘break lower soon’ or the risk of a short-term low would increase quickly. The timing of the breach of the December 2015 low of 1.0540 bodes well for our bearish view and from here, the next most obvious level to aim for is at the 2015 low of 1.0455/60 (seen in March). All in, the bearish view that started early last week is intact until 1.0650 is taken out (adjusted from 1.0700)."

• If daily price breaks 1.0745 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.0524 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.0449 nearest bearish target.
• If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bullish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.2500 resistance level located above 200 SMA in area of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 1.2359 support level near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be continuing with the ranging condition withn 1.2300/1.2600 levels waiting for direction:

"As highlighted yesterday, despite the strong rebound from the Monday’s low of 1.2313, it is too early to expect to a sustained up-move. The strong pull-back yesterday reinforces our current neutral view and we continue to expect GBP to trade choppily, likely within a broad 1.2300/1.2600 range."

• If daily price breaks 1.2589 resistance level on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.2301 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary ebarish market condition will be started.
• If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Japan's Asakawa says Trump presidency won't change Japan forex policy (based on the article)

• "Japan's top currency diplomat Masatsugu Asakawa said there will be no change to Japan's currency policy after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump forms his administration, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Thursday."

• "Japan guides exchange-rate policy based on an agreement among the Group of Seven advanced economies that highly volatile currency fluctuations are undesirable for the economy, a stance that won't change after Trump becomes president, Nikkei quoted Asakawa as saying. It did say when the interview was conducted."

"The dollar has strengthened against the yen since Trump was elected president and U.S. Treasury yields spiked on expectations that the new administration would boost debt-funded infrastructure spending. Trump has repeatedly criticized Japan and China for currency policies that give their exports an unfair trade advantage, reinforcing market expectations that Japan won't get consent from the United States to intervene in the currency market to stem any future, unwelcome yen rises."

[Sergey Golubev]

China's stocks were higher; Hang Seng index dropped 0.4 percent (based on the article)

• "China's stocks were higher on Thursday, with the blue-chip CSI300 index on track to rise for the fourth day as raw material shares powered ahead on the back of soaring metal prices."
• "The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.1 percent, to 3,244.21 points, while Shenzhen's start-up board ChiNext fell 0.3 percent."
• "Shares in China's major base metal producers, including Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet and Jiangxi Copper rose sharply as futures prices of copper, zinc and nickel jumped, maintaining strong upward momentum."
• "The Hang Seng index dropped 0.4 percent, to 22,597.88 points, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index lost 0.2 percent, to 9,646.98."
• "The prospect of rapid capital flight from emerging markets is a key risk factor for investors in Asia, especially under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies. Traders are betting on a faster pace of monetary tightening by the Fed as Trump's policies are expected to boost domestic economic growth and push inflation higher."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Establishes New Low At 1.0517 (based on the article)

• "EUR/USD dropped to new reaction lows in Wednesday’s trading as the dollar advanced to new rally highs following the release of a strong US Durable Goods report. In today’s trading, the pair established a new reaction low at 1.0517 and is currently rebounding from that low, holding near the 1.0568 level, up 0.16%."
• "The current low in EUR/USD represents a test of key support at the December 2015 corrective bottom at 1.05237. Not far below this level is the major corrective bottom established in March 2015 at the 1.04590 level. A drop below the key zone of support would confirm a breakdown from a multi-month trading range, calling for further losses in the months ahead."
• "Should EUR/USD advance beyond first resistance, the next level to watch for potential resistance is the November 22nd high at 1.0660. Given the strength exhibited by the dollar and ongoing expectations for a rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, a move above this level of resistance by EUR/USD is not expected. At present, fed fund futures are pricing in a 93.5% probability of an interest rate increase at the December FOMC meeting."
  

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and 25 pips range price movement

2016-11-24 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -1394M
• forecast data is -950M
• actual data is -846M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From official report:

==========

NZD/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by NZ Trade Balance news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P to record highs on Black Friday (adapted from the article)

The price is continuing with the bullish trend for today by new high to formed at 2.207 resistance to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The S&P 500 and the Dow hit record highs on Black Friday, helped by gains in consumer stocks at the start of the crucial holiday shopping season."
  
• "Trump's stock market honeymoon continues as the indices push higher this morning, and the focus now shifts to holiday sales," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial in New York.
  
• "The Friday after Thanksgiving is typically an up day, as most people who wanted to sell ahead of a four-day weekend did so during the week, leaving only bargain hunters left in the market,” said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Phoenix Financial Services. “There’s typically an upside bias because of that, but once we get into next week and the sellers return, we could see some softness. "The three indicators I look at—market breadth, sentiment, and valuation—are all in areas where the market typically runs into some headwinds."

If the price breaks 2.207 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the daily price breaks 2,168 support level to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 50.0% Fibo level at 2,118 to below on close bar so we may see the bearish reversal to be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Make smart decisions and take off

Cristian Camilo Lopez C, 2016.11.26 03:08

The wolves of wall street are just that a big screen advertising of what a normal user lives in front of a pc, today is fighting is for status not for a full portfolio, buying low value stocks is the most recommended, but what to do On platforms where coffee, gold and oil are not available? Migrating to several stations or platforms is not the exit, if there are bonds and if a currency remains strong, it is better to continue in this place and not look where nothing has been lost, now calculate in detail takes a great responsibility and concentration, and That all the answers are automatic the most recommended is to make a buy and sell of followed, this will greatly increase the capital invested, with very little you can get a good credit, it is false that all investments or profits are lost when some Low market, is the most regular in the world, looking for traders, brokers and other people can be attractive, but it is best to study finances in depth and come from their own capital, with percentages of 20% or even more per monthly operations is one Madness, it takes time to reflect on this and lead to an undeniable reality, is lost and earned.

 

 

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "Meanwhile, the BOE Financial Stability Report seems unlikely to offer anything particularly novel. Credit conditions have appeared to be broadly stable since mid-August since recovering from a slump in the referendum’s immediate aftermath. This means that the central bank is probably comfortable in wait-and-see mode for the time being, saving its ammunition for the possibility that something truly worrisome transpires."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "Another week devoid of big-ticket Australian event risk is ahead, keeping investors’ focus on broader macro-level trends. The US data docket is dense with noteworthy releases including the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge, a revised set of third-quarter GDP figures, and November’s Employment report. US economic news-flow has increasingly improved relative to consensus forecast since late October. More of the same may paint a picture of an economy running hotter than previously expected, encouraging a further hawkish shift in the projected 2017 Fed policy trajectory and weighing on the Aussie."