Press review - page 426

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)

• "Despite forecasts for a downtick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), stickiness in the core rate of inflation may boost the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise the benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later."
• "The growing risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target may spur a larger dissent within Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and we may see a growing number of central bank officials push for a 2016 rate-hike especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ "

Bullish USD Trade

• "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade."
• "Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."

Bearish USD Trade

• "Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long position on EUR/USD."
• "If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
  

Daily price is located above 200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is breaking 100-day SMA to above from the ranging area to the bullish trend to be resumed. RSI indicator is estimating the bullish market condition to be continuing.

• If D1 price breaks 1.1220 resistance level together with ascending triangle pattern to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If price breaks 1.1045 support on close daily bar to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and 54 pips price movement

2016-08-16 08:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

• "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% in the year to July 2016, compared with a 0.5% rise in the year to June."
• "Although the small increase in the rate between June 2016 and July 2016 takes it to the highest seen since November 2014, it is still relatively low in the historic context."
• "The main contributors to the increase in the rate were rising prices for motor fuels, alcoholic beverages and accommodation services, and a smaller fall in food prices than a year ago."

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GBP/USD M5: 54 pips price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

DAX Index Technical Analysis: daily bullish ranging within narrow levels waiting for breakout/breakdown (adapted from the article)

Daily price is on primary bullish market condition: price is testing 10,739.3/10,803.8 support levels to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The mutli-week rally in the DAX is showing signs of momentum slowing, with the net change amounting to basically zero since shooting higher by 2.5% last Tuesday. Yesterday’s small reversal day created a little doubt heading into today, but no significant resistance has yet been met, so the minor decline off yesterday’s highs looks likely to be short-lived before another push higher takes shape."
• "The area around 10900 is targeted before a more meaningful decline may set in; 10876 represents the 12/29 high, while not far above lies the upper parallel to the trend-line extending off the 2/11 low under the 6/24 ‘Brexit’ mini-crash low. Trend-line support below 10600 is viewed as the next best spot to look for the DAX to turn higher. If it doesn’t, then support should come in around the April peak just beneath 10500. If the advance is to continue towards the next objective surrounding 10900, then the DAX shouldn’t fall much beneath the April high."

If the price breaks 10,407.8 support level so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 9,666.1 support level to below so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 10,803.8 resistance level so the price bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
10,739.3	10,407.8
10,803.8	9,666.1

SUMMARY : bullish

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: U.S. Consumer Price Index

2016-08-16 12:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.0%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

• "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 0.8 percent before seasonal adjustment."
  
• "The energy index declined in July and the food index was unchanged. The index for all items less food and energy rose, but posted its smallest increase since March. As a result, the all items index was unchanged after rising in each of the 4 previous months."
  
• "The energy index fell 1.6 percent after rising in each of the last four months. The decline was due to a sharp decrease in the gasoline index; other energy indexes were mixed. The food at home index declined 0.2 percent as four of the six major grocery store food group indexes decreased, while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent."
  
• "The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in July after rising 0.2 percent in June. The shelter index rose 0.2 percent, its smallest increase since March, and the indexes for medical care, new vehicles, and motor vehicle insurance also rose. In contrast, the indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, communication, and recreation were among those that declined in July."

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EUR/USD M5: 60 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event

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GBP/USD M5: 71 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Jobless Rate and 41 pips price movement

2016-08-16 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Unemployment Rate]

• past data is 5.2%
• forecast data is 5.3%
• actual data is 5.1% according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.

==========

From Scoop article: NZ jobless rate falls to 5.1% under new methodology

• "New Zealand's unemployment rate fell more than expected in the second quarter as Statistics New Zealand adopted a new way of measuring the labour market to bring the country in line with international practices, and while a growing economy continued to support jobs growth. The kiwi dollar jumped above 73 US cents after the release."
• "The jobless rate declined to a seasonally adjusted 5.1 percent or 131,000 people, in the June quarter from a revised 5.2 percent rate in March, the government department said in a statement. Economists polled by Reuters predicted a rate of 5.3 percent, though the new methodology means comparisons with earlier periods aren't easy to make. The participation rate of 69.7 percent was up from 68.8 percent in March."
  
• "Statistics NZ introduced a new under-utilisation measure in the survey to provide a measure of the potential labour supply, including workers who may want more hours, those who want a job but aren't actively looking or available to take a job, as well as officially unemployed people. The underutilisation rate was 12.7 percent, with 106,300 employed people wanting to take on more hours, and another 109,500 who aren't officially unemployed but are either potential or unavailable job seekers."

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NZD/USD M5: 41 pips price movement by New Zealand Jobless Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (adapted from the article)

• "Even though U.K. Jobless Claims are projected to increase another 9.0K in July, signs of stronger wage growth may keep the British Pound afloat, with GBP/USD at risk of staging a larger recovery should the data tame market expectation for additional monetary support."
• "The Bank of England (BoE) is widely anticipated to further embark on its easing cycle this year as ‘a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound,’ but the central bank may move to the sidelines after delivering the comprehensive easing packing earlier this month especially as Governor Mark Carney rules out a zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for the U.K."

Bullish USD Trade

• "Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade."
• "If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBP/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."

Bearish USD Trade

• "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction."

Daily price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be continuing or the seconary bear market rally to be starte.

• If D1 price breaks 1.3370 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the seconary rally will be started.
  
• If price breaks 1.2795 support on close daily bar to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Jobless Claims and 58 pips range price movement

2016-08-17 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Jobless Claims]

• past data is 0.4K
• forecast data is 9.0K
• actual data is -8.6K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Jobless Claims] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

==========

• "Between January to March 2016 and April to June 2016, the number of people in work increased. The number of unemployed people and the number of people not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) fell."
• "There were 31.75 million people in work, 172,000 more than for January to March 2016 and 606,000 more than for a year earlier."
• "There were 23.22 million people working full-time, 374,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.53 million people working part-time, 231,000 more than for a year earlier."
• "The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.5%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971."
• "There were 1.64 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 52,000 fewer than for January to March 2016, 207,000 fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since March to May 2008."
• "There were 890,000 unemployed men, 124,000 fewer than for a year earlier. There were 750,000 unemployed women, 84,000 fewer than for a year earlier."
• "The unemployment rate was 4.9%, down from 5.6% for a year earlier. The last time it was lower was for July to September 2005. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed."
• "There were 8.84 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 58,000 fewer than for January to March 2016 and 179,000 fewer than for a year earlier."
• "The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.6%, the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971."

==========

GBP/USD M5: 58 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Ahead of Employment Data - intra-day bearish; daily breakdown with correction (adapted from the article)

"The AUD/USD continues to decline from yesterday’s high at .7749. This move in price has been guided by a descending trendline, which is drawn below by connecting a series of swing highs over the last two trading sessions. Aussie traders should continue to monitor this line ahead of today’s employment data as an ongoing point of resistance. Expectations for AUD Employment Change (July) figures are set at 10k, and any deviation from this value may result in a significant shift in the short term pricing of the AUD/USD."

M15 price is on bearish market condition for 0.7614 support level to be testing together with ascending triangle pattern to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. If the price breaks 0.7614 support level to below on close M15 bar so the bearish breakdown will be resumed, otherwise - ranging bearish within the levels.

D1 price located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is started with the secondary correction on open daily bar for now with Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator which is crossing the price to below for the good possible breakdown.

"The AUD/USD can currently be seen trading to new daily lows at .7615. The Grid Sight Index (GSI) is currently highlighting a short term downtrend, with the pair printing a series of lower lows in early trading. After reviewing 23,227,069 pricing points, GSI has indicated that price action has continued to decline 21 pips or more in 46% of the 13 matching historical events. Today’s primary bearish distribution is found at .7596. A move through this point would place the AUD/USD at both new weekly and daily lows."

• If the price breaks 0.7755 resistance level so the primary daily bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If daily price breaks 0.7596 support to below on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
0.7755	0.7596
N/A	0.7420

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 0.7596 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 0.7755 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: correction
  

SUMMARY : daily correction within the bullish

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes

2016-08-17 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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Fed minutes: Some FOMC voters thought a rate hike may be needed soon (based on CNBC article)

• "Some voting Federal Reserve policymakers expect that a U.S. interest rate increase will be needed soon, although there is general agreement that more data is needed before such a move, according to the minutes from the Fed's July policy meeting."
• "Some ... members anticipated that economic conditions would soon warrant taking another step in removing policy accommodation," the Fed said in the minutes, which were released on Wednesday."
• "After the release of the minutes, the U.S. dollar hit a session low against the yen at about 100.15 yen. The euro touched a session high against the dollar of about $1.1295."

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EUR/USD M5: 53 pips range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event

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GBP/USD M5: 82 pips range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 63 pips price movement

2016-08-18 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 10.8K
• forecast data is 10.2K
• actual data is 26.2K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

• Employment increased 26,200 to 11,968,600. Full-time employment decreased 45,400 to 8,153,900 and part-time employment increased 71,600 to 3,814,700.
• Unemployment decreased 5,500 to 725,500. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 13,300 to 482,400 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 7,800 to 243,100.
• Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 pts to 5.7%.
• Participation rate remained steady at 64.9%.
• Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 3.7 million hours to 1,660.9 million hours.

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AUD/USD M5: 63 pips price movement by Australian Employment Change news event