Fundamental Market Analysis for September 28, 2026 EURUSD
EURUSD:
EUR/USD starts the week near multi-month lows, and the external backdrop remains unfavorable for the euro. The dollar holds near a two-month high: rising oil prices amid US-Iran tensions are once again fueling inflation concerns, and the market continues to price in the possibility of further Fed policy tightening. Higher US bond yields also support demand for the dollar.
The euro's own factors are mixed. The ECB previously raised rates due to an energy shock, and regulator officials warn that pressure from energy prices may persist longer. This limits room for policy easing but simultaneously increases costs for the eurozone economy. Therefore, tighter expectations regarding the ECB have not yet given the euro a sustainable advantage.
During the day, comments from ECB and Fed representatives could adjust expectations for the future interest rate trajectory. Some of the dollar's strengthening is already reflected in quotes, so the potential for EUR/USD decline should be assessed cautiously. Nevertheless, at the start of the session, the US currency retains a stronger fundamental momentum, and the base scenario allows for further pressure on the pair.
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