Is $100 Oil Realistic Again?

The new crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has quickly brought the geopolitical premium back into oil prices. Brent is already trading near $95, and the $100 level no longer looks like an extreme scenario.

Why does this matter beyond oil traders?

🌍 The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the key chokepoints for global energy supplies. Any further disruption to shipping or new escalation between the US and Iran could quickly add several more dollars to Brent prices.

🔥 Higher oil prices = extra inflation pressure. Rising fuel and transport costs gradually spread through the economy and make the Fed’s job more difficult.

For the Fed, this is another argument for keeping policy tight. If the oil shock proves persistent, markets may have to price in the risk of higher interest rates for longer than previously expected.

This means Brent can now affect not only UKOIL, but also the US dollar, bond yields, gold and stock indices.

📊 Possible Price Dynamics

Current Brent price: ≈ $95.00

Calculation horizon: 5 trading days, approximately until 10.09.2026.

🔻 Level $100: probability of touching ≈ 39-49%

If the current upward momentum continues and geopolitical tensions increase, the probability could rise to around 60%.

🔺 Level $90: probability of touching ≈ 36-47%

If strong upward momentum continues, the probability of a decline to $90 falls significantly, to around 15-20%.

⚖️ With Brent near $95, the market is currently positioned almost halfway between the two scenarios. However, if the upward momentum continues, $100 becomes a much more likely target than a return to $90.

The main driver over the next few days may be not so much the technical picture in Brent, but news from the Strait of Hormuz. A single escalation headline could quickly change these probabilities.

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