📊 TOP 5 FX pairs by probability of reaching +200 points by 11 September 2026

P (TP) – probability of reaching Take Profit +200 points

1. AUD/USD
Current price: 0.7150
Direction: LONG
📈 P (TP): 80%
💰 Position size 0.01 lot → risk: ≈ $20 = 2.0%

2. USD/CHF
Current price: 0.8140
Direction: LONG
📈 P (TP): 66%
💰 Position size 0.01 lot → risk: ≈ $24.6 = 2.5%

3. EUR/USD
Current price: 1.1780
Direction: LONG
📈 P (TP): 58%
💰 Position size 0.01 lot → risk: ≈ $20 = 2.0%

4. GBP/USD – 52%
5. USD/JPY – 49%
Probability below the threshold.

⚠️ Important

• Correlation: AUD/USD and EUR/USD are long positions against the dollar, while USD/CHF is a position in favour of the dollar. There is no single directional bias, so the positions partially hedge each other.

• Market backdrop: rising US yields and strikes on Iran are supporting the dollar. This favours gains in USD/CHF, USD/JPY and USD/CAD, while putting pressure on AUD/USD and EUR/USD.

• Calendar: US NFP data will be released on Friday, 4 September. They may trigger sharp moves in the dollar in either direction.

⚠️ The data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and represent a statistical model-based assessment of the current market environment, not a guarantee, trading call or investment recommendation.

⚠️ Important news and sharp changes in volatility may significantly alter these probabilities.