Bitcoin by the End of 2026: $50,000, $100,000 or a New All-Time High?
Three drivers of the August rally: ETF inflows, changing liquidity expectations and a new push from Donald Trump. The market is discussing $100,000 again, but forecasts remain extremely wide.
After almost ten months of decline, bitcoin returned to the spotlight. On 19 August, the price rose by more than 6% within a few hours, climbing above $68,000 and approaching $70,000. On 21 August, BTC moved above $79,500 before stabilising near $77,000. However, the market is still well below the all-time high above $126,000 set in October 2025.
What Changed on 19 August
The US Treasury announced that it would double purchases of long-term government bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation from 9 September, strengthening expectations of softer financial conditions. On the same day, Donald Trump met executives from Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken and ICE, as well as regulators, at the White House and called on Congress to pass the Clarity Act.
ETFs became the third driver. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded around $517 million in net inflows on 19 August and another $606 million on 20 August. At the same time, the price surge triggered a short squeeze, with more than $1 billion in short positions liquidated in around one hour.
What Banks and Analysts Say
Standard Chartered keeps its forecast of $100,000 by the end of 2026. Bernstein expects $150,000, while moving its projected peak near $200,000 to 2027.
Citigroup cut its 12-month forecast in July from $112,000 to $82,000, while its bearish scenario was $53,000. Galaxy Digital suggested that bitcoin could fall to $40,000-46,000 by Q4 2026, stressing that this was a scenario rather than an official price target.
Forecasts from influencers are even wider. Peter Brandt said after the 19-20 August breakout that the technical picture had changed and that he had bought BTC; his long-term target of $300,000-500,000 applies to 2029. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee keeps a $200,000-250,000 target for the end of 2026. Arthur Hayes earlier named $125,000 as a year-end target, while $1 million remains a long-term scenario.
Three Scenarios for Year-End
The base case is $80,000-100,000, assuming ETF inflows continue and financial conditions remain soft. The bullish case is $120,000-150,000, supported by stronger capital inflows, a weaker dollar and a breakout above previous highs. The bearish case is $55,000-65,000, or $40,000-45,000 under severe macroeconomic stress.
What the Mathematical Model Says
With bitcoin near $77,000, a model based on historical BTC/USD volatility estimates the probability of touching $80,000 by 31 December at 89%, $100,000 at 32%, $120,000 at 8% and $150,000 at 1.3%.
On the downside, the probability of touching $65,000 is around 58%, $55,000 – 23%, $45,000 – 4.5%, and $40,000 – 1.5%.
The balance of risks shifted upwards after 19 August, but $100,000 cannot yet be considered the base case. If at least two of the three drivers – liquidity, ETF inflows and political-regulatory support – remain in place through the autumn, the chances of reaching it will increase. If they weaken, the $65,000-80,000 range may return to the centre of attention.
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