The new PerfectBar strategy

The new PerfectBar strategy

14 July 2021, 19:46
Mikhail Sergeev
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PerfectBar

The Black Queen multi-currency expert system is not just a trading system, but a full-fledged platform with the ability to implement a variety of trading strategies. Therefore, as planned, we plan to add new interesting and highly effective strategies.


Also, in the next update, we plan to add the ability to combine existing strategies to form our own portfolio.



When developing the main strategy of Black Queen, we found patterns that predict the future quite well. We do not give up our attempts to find global vulnerabilities in market pricing. Therefore, it was decided to try to predict the future price change in its pure form, without mathematical tricks.


We present to your attention the PerfectBar strategy. I would like to note that at the moment the strategy has been added with the mark PerfectBar(TEST). This means that no full-scale testing was carried out on a real account. Nevertheless, all our systems are written on the basis of debugged libraries and the probability that something will work on a real account not as intended is close to 0. The essence of the strategy is very simple: according to certain criteria, we are looking for a weekly bar, the direction of which can be predicted with a good probability. Entry at the beginning of the week, exit at the end.



Testing

Even in this basic form, the strategy showed a decent result. But its profitability is catastrophically dependent on swaps. It's all the fault of the time of holding the position.


Test results with a static lot:


Test results with a dynamic lot. Start from$100:



Stress test on new data(Forward test)

One of the most effective methods of checking strategies in the tester is testing on data outside the optimization period, that is, on new ones. This approach sweeps away almost 99% of the strategies tailored to the story.


Here is an example of the most perverse way of such a test. The testing interval is 2008-2010, while the expert saw only data from 2010-2021.

The results are quite encouraging: the profit remained at the level, the drawdown increased by 2 times(This is why, when calculating the expert's money management based on tests, we always recommend taking into account the maximum drawdown multiplied by 2 or even 3 times.



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