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Friday, July 13th
The EUR/USD pair is trading under bearish pressure at the end of this week, having refreshed its 8-day lows on the level of 1.1627. Persisting demand for the US dollar, underpinned by yesterday’s hawkish comments of Fed Chair J. Powell, who positively valued state of the US economy, remains one of the key drivers across the market. Moreover, on Thursday the ECB released minutes from its last meeting, where the regulator once again showed cautious stance, pointing out that inflation growth rate is still low and timing of the QE program is conditional on incoming data. However, the Bank didn’t offer any fresh details regarding further monetary policy, so market’s reaction on the protocols was limited. As for the data, today both economies will offer us only secondary data reports, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend.
The GBP/USD pair remains the biggest loser of this session, having refreshed its 7-day lows on the level of 1.3160. Recent weakness of the pair can be mainly explained by persisting concerns over Brexit. Earlier this week, several key Brexit ministers resigned from their posts in protest against the proposal of Prime Minister Theresa May, which was intended to satisfy both parties involved in the Brexit negotiations. In addition, the pound negatively reacted on President D. Trump’s comments, who said that softer Brexit scenario would have negative impact on trade relationships between the US and UK. On the other hand, slightly increased buying interest for risky assets is limiting pair’s further retreat. Looking ahead, today both economic calendars will offer us only secondary data reports, so widespread sentiment will be the only driver for the pair on Friday.
The USD/JPY pair stalled its upside rally at the end of this week and stepped back from its 6-month highs, marked on the level of 112.77 earlier this session. The correlation of the yen with a pack of Asian currencies and especially with the Chinese yuan is the main driver for the pair lately. It seems that the lack of fresh developments regarding the US-China trade war allowed Asian currencies to recover part of their losses. In addition, positive Chinese trade balance numbers, especially in view of recent events, also offered some respite to the pair today. On the other hand, persisting demand for the US dollar and swing in risk sentiment are limiting pair’s further retreat. On the data front, nothing important is scheduled in the data calendar for today, so broad market trend will continue to determine pair’s further direction.
The AUD/USD pair is trading with minor gains at the end of this week, keeping its positions near the level of 0.7400. It seems that the pair is mostly ignoring broad demand for the US dollar this Friday on the back of recovery of risk appetite. Today a lull in the conflict between the US and China offers some support to higher-yielding assets, such as the Aussie. Moreover, investors payed extra attention to Chinese trade balance figures, which came above market expectations, thus offering additional support to the pair. In the day ahead, the US economic calendar will remain silent, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend for any direction.
Major events of the day:
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1624 R. 1.1720
USDJPY S. 111.65 R. 113.07
GBPUSD S. 1.3145 R. 1.3273
USDCHF S. 0.9909 R. 1.0085
AUDUSD S. 0.7336 R. 0.7456
NZDUSD S. 0.6732 R. 0.6810
USDCAD S. 1.3106 R. 1.3244
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