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Monday, July 2nd
The EUR/USD pair failed to keep its positive tone, facing resistance in the region of 1.1690, on the back of Germany’s political uncertainty. According to the latest news reports, Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer threatened to leave his position, as he is unsatisfied with Mrs. Merkel's solutions on immigration issue. This statement put in question current governing coalition and further politics of Mrs. Merkel, thus dramatically increasing tensions surrounding the German political climate. Moreover, improved demand for the US currency is another underlying theme across the market, which is putting pressure on the pair at the start of this week. As for the data, today both sides will offer investors manufacturing PMIs, which will be able to determine pair’s further direction, while any developments on the political field of Germany will also be able to bring some impetus to the pair.
The GBP/USD pair stalled its recovery, dipping back below the level of 1.3200, on the back of fresh developments regarding Brexit. As became known, UK PM Theresa May has warned parliament that EU is unlikely to soften its position on Brexit and hard Brexiteers will soon have to choose between saving the sovereignty of Britain and access to the EU's single market. This news exerted notable pressure on the pair, limiting its further upside correction. Moreover, renewed demand for safety is another bearish driver for the pound at the start of this week, which is also capping pair’s upside. In the day ahead, both economies will offer investors manufacturing data, which will be able to set up pair’s further direction this Monday.
The USD/JPY pair continues trading in the north direction for the fifth session in a row, having spiked the level of 111.00. Ongoing upside trend of the pair is mostly attributed to renewed buying interest around the US dollar after its recent drawdown. However, further gains of the pair look limited, as swing in risk sentiment offers support to the yen. According to the latest news reports, recent political drama in Germany has gathered pace, as ruling coalition still can’t find a compromise on immigration issue. Moreover, it is expected that the market will remain cautious, as we have busy week ahead with NFP scheduled for Friday that also exerts some pressure on the pair. But for today the US has prepared ISM manufacturing data, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair failed to keep its positive tone at the start of this week after two days at a profit, having refreshed its intraday lows in the region of 0.7370. Today the Australian currency remains under pressure of several bearish factors, so any upside correction of the pair looks unlikely. First, renewed demand for safety, caused by weak China’s manufacturing data and ongoing political drama in Germany, is weighing on the higher-yielding Aussie. Moreover, bullish tone of the greenback is another factor, which is pushing the pair into the red zone at the start of this week. Meanwhile, next important event for the pair will be the RBA interest rate decision, which is scheduled for next Asia. It is broadly expected that the regulator will keep it cash rate unchanged, so traders will be looking for any adjustments to the CB’s statement. Besides the RBA’s meeting, investors will also pay attention to the US manufacturing data due for released during the NA session.
Major events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +3)
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1513 R. 1.1777
USDJPY S. 110.10 R. 111.24
GBPUSD S. 1.3016 R. 1.3310
USDCHF S. 0.9834 R. 1.0022
AUDUSD S. 0.7309 R. 0.7459
NZDUSD S. 0.6717 R. 0.6815
USDCAD S. 1.3024 R. 1.3332
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