All Blogs / Analytics & Forecasts

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

21 June 2018, 12:12

EEAnalytics

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events

Thursday, June 21^st

The EUR/USD is losing ground for the third session in a row, now trading in the region of its 3-week lows, marked in the region of 1.1530 earlier this week. It seems that the US dollar regained today its bullish tone, forcing its major counterparts to step lower. Moreover, recently emerged uncertainty on the political field of Germany regarding immigrants issue is another negative factor for the common currency, which is pushing the pair in the south direction. As for the data, today the EU economic calendar won’t offer us anything noteworthy, while the US has prepared Philly manufacturing index, which will be able to bring some volatility during the NA session. In addition, today investors will also pay attention to the BoE meeting, as in the case of significant volatility the pair will receive some correlational impetus.

The GBP/USD pair continues to sink so far this week, having reached its fresh 7-month lows on the level of 1.3130 in early Europe, on the back of renewed demand for the US dollar. However, today all traders’ attention remains glued to the BoE meeting. It is expected that the regulator will keep its rate unchanged, so markets will pay more attention to talks of MPC members regarding further monetary policy course. Any comments, pointing to the fact that the 2018 Q1 growth slowdown was temporary will underpin markets hopes of an August hike, thereby offering support to the pound across the market. On the other hand, reaffirming that Brexit remains a source of notable risks for the economy can be interpret as a dovish sign that will negatively affect market’s hopes of a rate hike in the third quarter. Besides the BoE meeting, investors will also pay attention to the US data, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair remains one of the weakest assets of this Thursday, having refreshed its 2018 lows at 0.6828 spot. Today the main driving factor across the market remains renewed buying interest around the US dollar, which is pushing all major currencies lower, including the Kiwi. Moreover, the market mostly ignored NZ Q1 GDP numbers, which came in at expectations, offering no support to the pair. Meanwhile, in mid-term perspective, the pair will remain pressured, as increased divergence between CBs of the US and NZ will remain one of the main drivers for the pair. On the data front, today we have only Philly manufacturing index scheduled for release, so the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.

The USD/CHF pair turned around and eased most of its today’s gains in Europe, having refreshed its intraday lows on the level of 0.9948, on the back of hawkish outcome of the SNB meeting. As it was widely expected, the Swiss regulator left its interest rate unchanged at -0.75%, while revising its inflation forecast to the upside. However, now all markets’ attention shifts towards the press conference, where investors expect to see comments regarding further actions of the SNB, dovish tone of the ECB, political situation in Italy and a slowdown in global economy. In addition, today investors will also pay attention to the US data, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair during NY trades.

Major events of the day:

SNB Interest Rate Decision – 10.30 (GMT +3)

SNB Press Conference – 11.30 (GMT +3)

BoE Interest Rate Decision – 14.00 (GMT +3)

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +3)

BoE Governor M. Carney’s Speech – 23 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD S. 1.1507 R. 1.1637

USDJPY S. 109.62 R. 110.82

GBPUSD S. 1.3110 R. 1.3248

USDCHF S. 0.9913 R. 1.0007

AUDUSD S. 0.7338 R. 0.7424