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Thursday, May 31st
The EUR/USD pair remains positive for the second consecutive session, having bounced off its half-year lows on Wednesday, located in the vicinity of 1.1500. Today the pair extends its upside correction and in early Europe broke through the level of 1.1700 that can be mainly explained by downside correction of the US dollar, which was additionally underpinned by yesterday’s weak ADP jobs data. Moreover, the lack of news regarding political developments in Italy also eased pressure on the common currency this Thursday. As for the data, today the EZ data calendar will bring us important CPI figures, while the US will offer us the home pending sales report, which will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory.
The GBP/USD pair has finally found support and returned above the level of 1.3300. It seems that the pound has found so much-awaited support after declining from its multi-year highs, marked on the level of 1.4376 in mid-April. Recall, the recent weakness of the pound was mainly attributed to series of weaker-then-expected data, which forced the BoE to abandon a rate hike in May. However, yesterday the pair found support on the level of 1.3205 and today continues to trade with a mild bullish bias. The main reason for the pair's reversal can be called the decline in the US dollar across the market, which was underpinned by yesterday's weak data from the US labor market. Today both economic calendars will offer investors mainly second tier data reports, so the pair will continue to follow the US dollar dynamics during this trading session.
The USD/CAD pair keeps its positions within striking distance of weekly lows, marked on the level of 1.2840 following hawkish outcome of the BoC meeting. Yesterday the pair fell by 200 pips, reacting on the statement of the Canadian regulator, where the Bank showed more hawkish stance, pointing on the acceleration of economic growth in the first quarter of the year. The Bank noted that inflation in Canada nearly approached the target level of 2% and would likely be a bit higher in the near term. In general, we can say that the BoC is ready to ease accommodation of its monetary policy and investors are now awaiting for a hawkish surprise from the Bank in July. Moreover, recovery of oil prices and ongoing retreat of the US dollar also contributes to the downside trend of the pair this Thursday. In the day ahead, the economic calendar will offer investors Canada’s GDP figures and data from the US housing market, while investors will continue to digest recent economic events.
The AUD/USD pair remains positive this Thursday, however, having stalled its bullish trend. Yesterday the pair performed sharp upside move, having refreshed its 3-day tops on the level of 0.7584, in wake of ongoing correction of the greenback against its major rivals. However, the pair received a negative impetus during Asia due to weak data of the Australian economy and lost a small part of its gains. Nevertheless, the pair managed to regain its positive tone and returned to the region of its recent tops on the back of slightly improved risk appetite, which was underpinned by stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing and services PMIs. Looking ahead, today the US calendar will offer investors only data from the housing market and bloc of second tier reports, which won’t have any impact on the pair, so broad market sentiment and price dynamics of the US dollar will remain the main drivers for the pair this Thursday.
Major events of the day:
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
Canada GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 18.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1463 R. 1.1777
USDJPY S. 108.05 R. 109.51
GBPUSD S. 1.3201 R. 1.3347
USDCHF S. 0.9843 R. 0.9961
AUDUSD S. 0.7438 R. 0.7654
NZDUSD S. 0.6841 R. 0.7073
USDCAD S. 1.2707 R. 1.3129
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