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Thursday, May 24th
The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Thursday, trying to correct from its 6-month lows, located on the level of 1.1676. Today downside correction of the US dollar remains the main underlying theme, giving the major currencies another chance to recover the ground. Yesterday the Fed released minutes from its last meeting, which showed that the committee is not going to accelerate the pace of rate increase, thereby sending the US dollar lower across the board. Nevertheless, the Fed members agreed that if inflation continues to grow at the same pace, then a rate hike in the near future might be appropriate. As for the data, now it is ECB’s turn to publish meeting minutes, while investors will also pay attention to the US data from the housing, which will be released during NY trades.
The GBP/USD pair corrects from its 5-month lows, marked in the region of 1.3300 after another disappointing UK data. Yesterday the pair again came under bearish control after the UK released weaker-than-expected inflation figures, which call into question a possible BoE rate hike at the next meeting. However, the pair met some support near the level of 1.3300 and bounce off its recent lows. Moreover, yesterday the Fed published protocols from its last meeting, which showed that current monetary policy remain comfortable for the regulator and there is no urgency to accelerate refi rate growth pace. These comments had some negative impact on the greenback, as markets were hoping that the Fed would indicate one more rate hike this year. However, further divergence between the regulators is expected to come into play, which will put additional pressure on the pound. In the day ahead, we have BoE President M. Carney’s speech, the UK retail sales numbers and US existing home sales, which will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory during this session.
The USD/JPY pair extends its downside trend this Thursday, having refreshed its weekly lows on the level of 109.33. The yen is the top performer of this Asia on the back of improved demand for safety. Recall, on Tuesday President Trump expressed dissatisfaction regarding current negotiations between the US and China. Moreover, now Mr. Trump is planning to impose additional tariffs on foreign vehicle imports. And finally, North Korea threatened to call-off the June Summit. All these events significantly increased the demand for safe-haven assets, including the yen. In addition, the US dollar today shows subdued dynamics, following yesterday’s FOMC minutes, which failed to underpin markets expectations regarding more aggressive Fed monetary policy path this year. Today the US economic calendar will bring us another bloc of reports from the housing market, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend, determined by risk sentiments and US dollar price dynamics.
The USD/CAD pair trades back and forth so far this week. Yesterday the pair received notable bearish impetus on the back of lack of surprises from the FOMC minutes. As it was widely expected, the protocols showed Fed’s intention to remove policy accommodation. However, Fed members also agreed that there is no urgency to tighten the policy more aggressively, which in turn negatively affected the greenback, as investors were hoping to find fresh hints on an additional rate hike this year. However, the decline was short-lived and the pair regained its positive tone, after US President D. Trump announced his plans to impose tariffs on foreign vehicle imports, which is one of the key issues in NAFTA negotiations. The decision of the US President to bring in additional tariffs negatively affected recently improved optimism around NAFTA, thus leaving the Canadian dollar under bearish pressure. On the data front, today the economic calendar will bring us another bloc of data from the US housing market, so widespread sentiment will remain as a key navigator for the pair during this trading session.
Major events of the day:
BoE Governor M. Carney’s Speech – 11.00 (GMT +3)
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +3)
ECB Account of Monetary Policy Meeting – 14.30 (GMT +3)
US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1607 R. 1.1835
USDJPY S. 108.80 R. 111.58
GBPUSD S. 1.3228 R. 1.3504
USDCHF S. 0.9859 R. 1.0029
AUDUSD S. 0.7494 R. 0.7616
NZDUSD S. 0.6854 R. 0.6976
USDCAD S. 1.2739 R. 1.2973
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