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Wednesday, May 2nd
The EUR/USD pair managed to correct above its psychological level of 1.2000 this Wednesday, after testing the region of 1.1980, which is the lowest level in the last 4 months. It seems that US bulls have eased pressure across the market in wake of a typical cautiousness ahead of the FOMC meeting, which will take place during the NA session. It is widely expected, that the regulator will keep its interest rate unchanged, while any comments regarding further plans of the Fed will be able to spark some volatility across the market. Today the CB is likely to confirm market expectations of a June rate hike, however, the main market-moving event will be if the Bank points to 3 rate hikes this year. Besides the FOMC meeting, investors will also pay attention to the German PMI and the US ADP jobs report, but broad cautiousness will limit market’s reaction on these releases.
The GBP/USD pair remains under bearish pressure this Wednesday, having refreshed its 4-month lows on the level of 1.3581. The results of the British economy continue to disappoint markets, thereby lowering chances that the BoE will increase its interest rate hike next week. Yesterday the UK published manufacturing PMI data, which came blow markets expectations, thus sending the pair to the area of its multi-month lows. Moreover, ongoing demand for the US dollar is another negative factor for the pair, which is pushing the pair to the red zone lately. As for economic events for today, the UK will offer markets the construction PMI report, but investors will focus their attention on the Fed interest rate decision, which will take place in the second half of the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair recovered minor part of its losses this Wednesday after testing 11-month lows at 0.7473. Yesterday the pair received another bearish impetus on the back of uninformative outcome of the RBA meeting. As it was widely expected, yesterday the Bank left its interest rate unchanged on the level of 1.5%, while noting that it would keep the monetary policy accommodative to see any sign of economic growth. However, today the pair managed to turn around and recover minor part of its losses in wake of positive data from the Chinese manufacturing sector. But any further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely, as we are heading towards the Fed meeting, which expectedly will bring fresh hints on further monetary policy of the regulator. Besides the Fed interest rate decision, markets will also pay attention to the ADP jobs report, which will also be able to bring some trading opportunities before the key risky event of this Wednesday.
The USD/CAD pair trades back and forth so far this week, as neither bulls nor bears can regain control of the pair. On the one hand, broad demand for the US dollar continues to dominate the market lately, pushing the pair into the positive territory. On the other hand, upbeat Canada’s GDP numbers and hawkish comments of the BoC Governor S.Poloz, who yesterday stated that he sees no need for further monetary stimulus on the back of positive results of the economy, provided notable support to Canadian dollar. Today all eyes will remain focused on the key event of this Wednesday – FOMC meeting, as it may contain some fresh hints regarding further Fed monetary policy tightening measures.
Major events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +3)
UK Construction PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Fed Interest Rate Decision – 21.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1915 R. 1.2121
USDJPY S. 108.99 R. 110.31
GBPUSD S. 1.3473 R. 1.3843
USDCHF S. 0.9867 R. 1.0019
AUDUSD S. 0.7428 R. 0.7576
NZDUSD S. 0.6960 R. 0.7062
USDCAD S. 1.2766 R. 1.2954
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