Thursday, April 26th
The EUR/USD pair was trading on a positive note during this Asian session, having bounced off its recent 2-month lows, marked at 1.2160 spot, due to slight downside correction of the US dollar. However, further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely in wake of increasing cautiousness, as now all market’s attention remains focused to the ECB meeting, which will take place during the European trading session. It is expected that the Bank will keep its stance unchanged, especially taking into account that the last meeting indicated an economic slowdown of the EZ in the beginning of the year. However, any comments of President M.Draghi during the subsequent press conference regarding any changes in Bank’s aggressive bond buying program will be able to spark volatility on the pair. Besides the key market-moving event of this Thursday, investors will also pay attention to the US data releases, which will also help the pair to form its short-term trajectory today.
The GBP/USD pair again got out of bearish control today after retesting its support level of 1.3920. However, the pair still remains pressured by a slew of disappointing UK economic figures and recent dovish talks of the BoE Governor M.Carny, which put some doubts on a May’s rate hike, while investors have already priced in the hawkish outcome of the BoE meeting. On the other hand, broad downside correction of the US dollar remains the key theme across the market today, thus limiting pair’s further retreat. As for the economic data, the UK calendar won’t offer anything relevant this Thursday, while the US will release durable goods orders, while the US dollar dynamics will remain in the status of the key driver during this trading session.
The USD/JPY pair stalled its upside trend during the Asian trades, having faced resistance on the level of 109.46, which is the highest level since mid-February. It seems that US bulls have again taken a breather this Thursday, allowing major currencies to correct higher, including the yen. Moreover, slight cautiousness ahead of tomorrow’s BoJ meeting could also help Japanese bulls to regain some positions against its US counterpart. On the other hand, it is expected that Japan’s regulator will talk about extremely accommodative monetary policy, so any comments about rate increase or QE program tapering are unlikely. Today the US data calendar will bring investors durable goods orders, while broad cautiousness, additionally underpinned by upcoming ECB meeting, and the US dollar price dynamics will continue to form pair’s near-term trajectory.
The USD/CAD pair extends its recent downside correction, having lost the most part of yesterday’s gains. On Wednesday, the pair met resistance in the region of its 3-week highs, marked on the level of 1.2897, as US bulls took a breather, allowing the pair to correct lower. However, further downside rally lacked a momentum and the pair entered consolidative phase in Asia, but still keeping bearish bias. Moreover, it seems that yesterday’s slightly hawkish rhetoric of the BoC Governor S.Poloz failed to accelerate pair’s retreat, as Mr.Poloz’s speech contained the same key points, which he already discussed earlier in the week. However, the head of the regulator also highlighted uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations, which negatively affected positions of the Loonie. In the day ahead, the economic calendar will bring us only US durable goods orders, so broad market trend, backed by the greenback price dynamics, will continue to navigate the pair this Thursday.
Major events of the day:
ECB Interest Rate Decision – 14.45 (GMT +3)
ECB Press Conference – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2108 R. 1.2264
USDJPY S. 108.52 R. 109.90
GBPUSD S. 1.3876 R. 1.4022
USDCHF S. 0.9752 R. 0.9886
AUDUSD S. 0.7519 R. 0.7627
NZDUSD S. 0.7022 R. 0.7142
USDCAD S. 1.2776 R. 1.2932
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