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Tuesday, March 6th
The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its positive trend after three days at a profit. The main reason of recent bearish dynamics of the pair remains easing tension around a possible trade war following US President D.Trump’s talks regarding import tariffs on steel and aluminum, but common sense is expected to prevail, allowing the US dollar to recover positions against its major competitors. Talking about the euro area, as the Italian parliamentary elections are over, investors are now awaiting for further developments from the political field of Italy, since no party won the majority. Today nothing relevant is scheduled in the data calendar, so widespread market trend will remain the only navigator for the pair this Tuesday.
The AUD/USD pair stalled its yesterday’s upside trend and turned southward near the level of 0.7800, following eventless RBA meeting. As it was widely expected, the Australian regulator left its interest rate unchanged on the level of 1.5%. Moreover, the regulator failed to provide the market with any hawkish or dovish surprises, reiterating everything said previously. As before, the Bank believes that low interest rate supports the Australian economy and pickup in inflation is expected, but as the economy strengthens. Therefore, the outcome of the RBA meeting didn’t have any impact on the Aussie, however, disappointed investors by lack of trading opportunities allowed bears to recover control over the pair on the back of red retail sales numbers. On the other hand, increased interest to risky assets among market participants on the back of cooling off broad fears of global trade war provide some support to higher-yielding assets, such as the Aussie. Looking ahead, today broad market trend will remain the only driver for the pair, as the US data calendar won’t offer investors anything interesting this Tuesday.
The GBP/USD pair corrects lower this Tuesday after three days of growth. It seems that the pair lost its upside trend, backed by streak of positive UK data reports, and eased part of its gains, as the pound is still remaining fragile on the back of uncertainty around Brexit. The lack of sustainable progress in the Brexit negotiations and internal divisions on the political field of the UK make the pound weaker against its major rivals lately. However, market trend seems to be supportive to the UK currency, as investors show interest to more risky instruments today, like the pound. On the data front, today both economic calendars will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, caused by increased interest to higher-yielding assets.
The USD/JPY pair remains better bid this Tuesday, having bounced off its 4-month lows, marked yesterday on the level of 105.25. The main reason of pair’s upside trend could be called renewed market interest to more risky assets, as dust around recent US President D.Trump’s talks on tariff plan has started to settle down. Adding to this, dovish comments of the BoJ Governor H.Kuroda, who said that it’s too early to speak about stimulus exit strategy, as the inflation is still far away from its target level, is another bearish factor for the yen. However, investors are still remaining in anticipation of BoJ meeting, scheduled for this Friday, for more detailed information on Bank’s further action regarding its monetary policy. In the day ahead, it is expected that the pair will continue to trace broad market trend, caused by interest to risky assets, as the economic calendar won’t offer us anything noteworthy during today trades.
Major events of the day:
Canada Ivey PMI – 17.00 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2228 R. 1.2418
USDJPY S. 105.03 R. 106.81
GBPUSD S. 1.3719 R. 1.3941
USDCHF S. 0.9316 R. 0.9448
AUDUSD S. 0.7709 R. 0.7799
NZDUSD S. 0.7182 R. 0.7266
USDCAD S. 1.2799 R. 1.3083
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