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Monday, January 15th
The EUR/USD pair is remaining within striking distance of its multiyear highs, marked earlier this morning at 1.2240 spot, as weakness of the US dollar is still dominating the market. The offered tone of the US dollar could be explained by recent market trend, based on speculations regarding potential convergence of monetary policies of the Fed and major central banks. Adding to this, positive news from the German political field, saying that German party leaders have finally reached a breakthrough on the coalition talks, and speculations on recent hawkish ECB minutes also contribute to pair’s bullish trend this Monday. However, it is expected that the pair won’t show any sharp moves today, as the US market will remain closed in wake of celebration of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, while the EU data calendar remains absolutely empty this Monday, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread market sentiments.
The GBP/USD pair follows broad market trend and extends it recent massive rally, remaining more than 2 cents higher Friday’s lows. Pair’s recent upsurge could be explained by weakness of the US dollar against its main competitors, which allowed the pair to refresh its tops at 1.3768 level, last seen in the day of Brexit referendum ( 23 June 2016). Adding to this, positive news headlines regarding Brexit, which says that Dutch and Spanish finance ministers are now supporting soft Brexit, triggered massive demand for the UK currency on Friday and are still supporting the pair. Today we have absolutely empty data calendar, so broad market mood will remain the sole driving factor for the pair at the start of this week.
The AUD/USD pair once again became a top gainer of the session, extending its northward march for the fourth session in a row, while refreshing its 4-month highs at 0.7960 level, as multiple bullish factors support the pair at the start of this week. First of all, ongoing weakness of the US dollar is still dominating the market, becoming the key reason of pair’s recent upside trend. Moreover, increased demand for risky assets also exerts support to higher-yielding Aussie this Monday. Meanwhile, the US market will remain closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, therefore US bulls will remain unable to support the greenback. Since the US market will remain closed, the economic calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, and the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair this Monday.
The USD/JPY pair remains broadly offered, wobbling in the vicinity of its 4-month lows, marked at 110.58 in Asia. It seems that the weakness of the US dollar is still gripping the market, forcing the pair to retreat for the sixth day in a row, while the yen pay no attention to increased interest to risky assets. Moreover, Friday’s positive US inflation numbers also failed to provide the greenback with enough support to stop its downside trend. On the data front, today nothing important is scheduled in data calendar, while the US market will remain closed due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day celebration, so dynamics of the US dollar will continue to drive the pair during this trading session.
Major events of the day:
US - Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1961 R. 1.2337
USDJPY S. 110.42 R. 111.98
GBPUSD S. 1.3452 R. 1.3880
USDCHF S. 0.9595 R. 0.9807
AUDUSD S. 0.7814 R. 0.7972
NZDUSD S. 0.7189 R. 0.7303
USDCAD S. 1.2383 R. 1.2593
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