According to data provided today by IHS Markit Ltd., the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector rose to 58.2 in November (the previous estimate was 56.6, the forecast was 56.5). Thus, the November figure was the highest in 51 months.
This indicator assesses the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector in the UK and is an important indicator of the business environment and the overall state of the country's economy. The manufacturing sector, the second most important in the UK after the services sector, forms a significant part of the final UK GDP. The value above 50 indicates an increase in activity, and below - to reduce it. Steady growth in activity in the UK manufacturing sector contributes to the recovery of the British economy as a whole.
This is a good sign for investors who put on the rise of pound and restoring of the British economy after the collapse of the pound after Brexit. And, nevertheless, the pound ignored the strong PMI for the manufacturing sector and continued the decline that began during the Asian session.
This week, the pound was supported by the news of progress in the negotiations on Brexit, although negotiations are still going on. Great Britain has increased the amount it is willing to pay for withdrawing from the European Union. The parties came to a preliminary agreement on the payment by the UK for the exit from the EU from 40 to 55 billion euros.
However, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland threatens to give up support for the UK-based coalition if conditions for Northern Ireland differ from those for the rest of the country. The reminiscing about itself and the once again manifested uncertainty around Brexit halted the almost non-stop 4-week growth of the pound and the GBP / USD pair.
At the same time, the dollar also suspended its ascent after yesterday's vote in the Senate on the tax bill of the Republicans was postponed.
It turned out that the US budget deficit will increase by 1 trillion dollars within 10 years, if the proposed plan is adopted. Reducing the tax from US companies to 20% from the current 35% was the main point of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump. This promised to accelerate economic growth and inflation.
Thus, today in the foreign exchange market there is a multidirectional dynamics of the dollar.
At 15:00 (GMT) will be published important macro indicators for the United States. Among them - the index of business activity ISM (for November) in the manufacturing sector, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole, the index of gradual acceleration of inflation from ISM for November, which assesses the state of the US industrial sector and the mood of business representatives regarding inflation. A relative decrease in indicators is expected, although, in general, indicators will remain well above the value of 50, which indicates the growth of this sector of the US economy.
Also during the American trading session (at 14:05, 14:30, 15:15 GMT) a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve, including the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis James Bullard, the executive director of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Robert Stephen Kaplan, the head of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Patrick Harker, will speak. At this time (from 14:05 to 15:15) the volatility of trades will grow not only in terms of the dollar, but also in the American stock market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics