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Thursday, November 30th
The EUR/USD pair failed to keep positive tone in early Europe and dropped to session lows, marked in the region of 1.1810, despite better-than-expected data reports from German labor market. The main reason of pair’s retreat remains ongoing recovery of the US dollar, which is dominating the market lately. Moreover, seems that markets have already passed over recent positive news from German political field, while sharp drawdown of the euro in the cross with the pound is still weighing the common currency across the boeard. Looking ahead, since the report from the German labor market was the only important data release for today, the broad market sentiments and the US dollar dynamics will remain the key driving factors for the pair during this trading session.
The GBP/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics for the third session in a row, as the pound is still benefiting from the progress, made in Brexit negotiations. Recall, earlier this week the UK PM T.May and EU committee came to a compromise on Brexit deal, however, there haven’t been any official announcements on the Brexit settlement amount yet. Moreover, this news forced the pair to ignore recent negative UK data releases and maintain its positive rally. In the meantime, both economic calendars won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so the noise surrounding Brexit process will continue to drive the pair during this trading session.
The NZD/USD pair remains the weakest asset of Asia on the back of disappointing NZ data. Today the pair received additional bearish impetus, extending its southern rally for the third consecutive session, after New Zealand released negative business confidence numbers, which significantly weighed the Kiwi. Adding to this, ongoing political uncertainty in the NZ remains another bearish factor for the Kiwi, which is driving the pair into the negative territory. On the other hand, the pair managed to stall its retreat following China’s manufacturing sector activity report, which came above market expectations, lending the much-needed respite to NZ bulls. Looking ahead, today the US economic calendar will remain broadly silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread market trend, which will navigate the pair during this session.
The AUD/USD pair broke out of its 4-day losing streak on Thursday on the back of several bullish factors. The pair attracted some buying interest following upbeat Chinese manufacturing and services PMI reports, as China is the biggest Australian business partner. Moreover, better-than-expected data from the Australian housing market also helped the pair to regain its positive tone by the European opening. However, further upside of the pair looks fragile, as softer sentiments on the commodity space, especially surrounding copper, are limiting any additional gains of the commodity-linked Australian dollar. Today the US calendar contains only secondary data reports, which unlikely will attract much attention, so the pair will continue to trace broad market sentiments to determine its further direction during this trading session.
The main events of the day:
German Unemployment Change – 10.55 (GMT +2)
EU prelim. CPI – 12.00 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1782 R. 1.1916
USDJPY S. 111.00 R. 112.60
GBPUSD S. 1.3284 R. 1.3510
USDCHF S. 0.9793 R. 0.9895
AUDUSD S. 0.7521 R. 0.7631
NZDUSD S. 0.6842 R. 0.6948
USDCAD S. 1.2779 R. 1.2915
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