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Friday, October 27th
The EUR/USD pair came under enormously high bearish pressure during last session, having declined to the level of 1.1624, which was last seen in late July, after ECB President M.Draghi announced dovish QE program taper. The ECB reduced QE size by half and simultaneously extended its duration, thus maintaining the same level of stimulus as before and also showing that the Bank intends to retain highly accommodative monetary policy in the near future. In reference to that, Mr. Draghi also added that QE would not stop suddenly, leaving doors opened for further extension of the QE program. This outcome of the ECB meeting highly disappointed the market, forcing the pair to lose nearly 2 cents since yesterday’s highs. Adding to this, the greenback received bullish impetus, increasing its positions across the market, after the House of Representatives passed a budget bill that cleared the way for long-awaited D.Trump tax cuts. Today both data calendars will remain broadly silent, widespread market trend will remain the key driving factor for the pair, as investors are still digesting recent events.
The AUD/USD pair remains the biggest loser of the Asian trading session, extending its downward trajectory into a sixth day today, on the back of increased demand for the US dollar and Australian political drama. Renewed bid tone of the greenback remains the key theme across the FX board, as US President D.Trump’s much-awaited tax reform became one step closer to the final implementation, after the House of Representatives passed the budget blueprint on Thursday. Adding to this, today it became known that the High Court of Australia ruled that Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce has no right to remain in parliament, since he is also a resident of New Zealand. And finally, red numbers of Australian PPI added some extra bearish pressure to the already weak AUD/USD, contributing to pair's slide to its 3-month lows, marked at 0.7626 level. Looking ahead, today the US economic calendar won’t provide us with any important data releases, so the pair will continue to trace market trend to determine its further direction.
The USD/CAD pair extends its bullish run for the seventh consecutive session, refreshing its 3-month highs at 1.2884 spot, as Loonie is still suffering from the outcome of the BoC meeting. Recall, on Wednesday the Canadian regulator decided to maintain “wait and see” approach to monetary policy, thus having triggered spike of speculations about divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and BoC. Moreover, renewed optimism around the US dollar, triggered by progress over the US President Donald Trump's tax cut plans, also collaborates with pair’s growth at the end of this working week. On the other side, positive dynamics of oil prices may provide some support to the commodity-linked Loonie, thus stalling pair’s northward rally. Today economic calendars from both neighbouring countries will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics on Friday.
The GBP/USD pair extends its retreat, having broken through its resistance, located at 1.3100 level, amid renewed optimism around the US dollar. Seems that UK bulls have lost control over the pair, allowing it to lose all its weekly gains, as the US dollar recovered its positive tone across the market. The main reason of increased buying interest around the US dollar remains recent progress over the US President Donald Trump’s tax overhaul plans. Moreover, the pound continues to lose points across the market amid uncertainty over Brexit negotiations, since no progress has been made so far on key Brexit topics. Today both economic calendars lack any market-moving catalysts, so the US dollar price dynamics and widespread market sentiments will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.
The main events of the day:
Prelim. US GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1512 R. 1.1906
USDJPY S. 113.05 R. 114.53
GBPUSD S. 1.3061 R. 1.3329
USDCHF S. 0.9841 R. 1.0047
AUDUSD S. 0.7615 R. 0.7741
NZDUSD S. 0.6790 R. 0.6930
USDCAD S. 1.2744 R. 1.2908
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