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Monday, October 9th
The EUR/USD pair shows subdued dynamics at the first working day of this week, however, remaining under mild pressure on the back of attempts of the US dollar to recover after Friday’s disappointment. At the end of the last week, the pair received strong bullish impetus after the US published weak NFP numbers, which strongly weighed on the greenback across the market. Moreover, escalation of the conflict between North Korea and the US, as indicated by recent news headlines, saying that North Korea is planning to test a ballistic missile, which is capable to reach continental part of the US, supports euro’s status of funding currency. Today the EU data calendar will bring only secondary data reports, which most likely won’t trigger any sharp moves of the pair, while the US market will remain closed today due to national holiday celebration, so broad market trend will remain the key driving factor for the pair on Monday.
The GBP/USD pair looks positive today, extending recovery from its monthly lows, marked on Friday at 1.3027 spot, and stepping above the level of 1.31. On Friday, the pair received strong bullish impetus after the US published weak data from its labor market, which allowed the pair to gain almost a cent since previous session lows. Moreover, the pound benefits today from recent talks that the UK PM T.May is planning to urge the UK and EU to show more flexibility during Brexit negotiations. However, prevalent demand for safety across the market in wake of renewed geopolitical tensions surrounding the US and North Korea may limit pair’s further recovery path, as risk-off sentiments exert negative pressure on the higher-yielding pound. Today both economic calendars will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, while any development from the UK political field will be able to spark some volatility in the day ahead.
The NZD/USD pair attempts to recover after today’s bearish opening gap, while weaker Kiwi limits pair’s further upside. Today the pair opened in the region of its 4-month lows, marked on the level of 0.7057, as political jitters surrounding the NZ are exerting pressure on the Kiwi. The final vote count on general parliament election in the NZ over the weekend failed to identify a clear winner, which leaves some uncertainty regarding further New Zealand’s political scenario. Adding to this, downbeat Chinese services PMI release, seen earlier this morning, and renewed risks surrounding North Korea also negatively affect higher-yielding NZD, limiting pair’s chances on further recovery. However, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, following red numbers of the NFP report, allowed the pair to recover some pips in Asia and to consolidate its positions near the level of 0.7070. Looking ahead, today nothing noteworthy is scheduled in data calendar for this Monday, so the pair will continue to trace the US dollar price action to determine its further trajectory.
The USD/JPY pair continues to stay under bearish control at the start of this week, as yen is benefiting from weakness around the US dollar and risk-off sentiments, sparked by renewed geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the US. Today the market continues to digest Friday’s weak results of the US from its labor market, which showed drop in jobs during the previous month, thereby keeping the US dollar under pressure today. Moreover, renewed risk-off trend, triggered by the latest news reports, saying that N. Korea is preparing to test a long-range missile, supports safe-haven, such as the yen, at the start of this week. However, minor attempts of the US dollar to recover some ground helped the pair to bounce off its intraday lows, marked at 112.33 spot earlier this session. Today nothing important is scheduled in the US data calendar, so broad market trend and risk sentiments continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.
The main events of the day:
US - Columbus Day
Canada - Thanksgiving Day
Japan - Health-Sports Day
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1643 R. 1.1785
USDJPY S. 112.05 R. 113.71
GBPUSD S. 1.2975 R. 1.3163
USDCHF S. 0.9727 R. 0.9859
AUDUSD S. 0.7703 R. 0.7833
NZDUSD S. 0.7022 R. 0.7152
USDCAD S. 1.2478 R. 1.2624
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