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Tuesday, September 19th
The EUR/USD pair continues to keep its bid tone so far this week, trying to break through its psychological resistance of 1.2000. Recent upside rally of the pair is mainly driven by broad weakness of the US dollar, backed by uncertainty around upcoming potential tax reform by the Trump administration. However, any further gains of the pair may appear limited, as we are heading towards the main event of this week – FOMC interest rate decision, which will take place tomorrow during the NA session. Markets are widely expecting that the Fed will provide some hints on further steps regarding its monetary policy. On the data front, investors are now eagerly awaiting for German ZEW economic sentiment for fresh directional impetus, while the US data from the labor market will also be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session.
The GBP/USD pair extends its recovery from yesterday’s drawdown, following less hawkish M.Carney’s speech. On Monday, the pair came under strong selling pressure, dropping below the level of 1.3600, after BoE Governor M.Carney stressed that further interest rate increase is expected to be gradual and limited. However, the pair managed to regain its bid tone, as the US dollar continues to lose ground across the market. However, it is expected that we may see some correction of the pair amid some repositioning trade ahead of the much awaited FOMC rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday. Today the UK calendar won’t bring anything important, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend during the European session, while the US will publish bloc of data from the labor market, featuring Building Permits and a few more secondary tier reports, which will set up pair’s next direction in the session ahead.
The USD/JPY pair continues to build gains for the third session in a row on the back of improving investors' appetite for riskier assets, having refreshed its nearly 2-month highs in the vicinity of the 112.00 level. Easing geopolitical tensions around Korean Peninsula on the back of lack of aggression from Pyongyang negatively affects demand for safe-haven assets, forcing the Yen to lose ground against the greenback. On the other hand, broad retreat of the US currency remains one of the key determinants across the market that is limiting pair’s gains. However, expected that the pair won’t show any sharp moves in the near future on the back of increasing cautiousness among investors, as we are heading towards key events of this week – Fed and BoJ interest rate decisions, which will take place later this week. Both events will be highly influential for the pair, as they will hint on further steps of the regulators regarding its monetary policies. Looking ahead, today investors will focus their attention on the US Building Permits report due later today, while the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair throughout this session.
The AUD/USD pair extends recovery from its 2-week lows, marked during previous trading session, despite RBA dovish minutes from its last monetary policy meeting. The protocols once again reiterated that the Central Bank remains concerned regarding stronger position of the Aussie and low inflation, which have negatively affected the Australian currency. However, the pair managed to regain its bid tone, as ongoing weakness of the US dollar, despite increased expectations of Fed rate hike by the end of this year, and positive data from the Australian labor market are supporting to the pair this Tuesday. Today the US economy will release the bloc of reports from the US labor market, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities, while the US dollar price dynamics will continue to determine pair’s trajectory during this trading session.
The main events of the day:
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1890 R. 1.2000
USDJPY S. 110.73 R. 112.07
GBPUSD S. 1.3372 R. 1.3680
USDCHF S. 0.9552 R. 0.9672
AUDUSD S. 0.7882 R. 0.8074
NZDUSD S. 0.7189 R. 0.7381
USDCAD S. 1.2100 R. 1.2432
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