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Friday, September 8th
The EUR/USD pair trades on the positive territory at the end of this week, having refreshed its tops at 1.2092, last seen on December 2014. However, the pair corrected slightly lower this morning, as investors lock in some profits after yesterday’s enormous rally, triggered by press conference of ECB President Mario Draghi. On Thursday, Mr.Draghi didn’t focus on the issue of higher positions of the euro, but stressed that the European economy continues to demonstrate positive dynamics. Moreover, the head of the regulator left doors opened for another big announcement, saying that the bank will take its decision on the QE program probably in October. Another factor, which negatively influences the dollar today, remains uninformative speech of Fed member W.Dudley, who said that gradual increase of the interest rate is coming, however, giving no clues on when to expect next monetary policy tightening measures. On the data front, today the economic calendar lacks of any market moving releases, so the US dollar price dynamics will continue to determine pair’s further trajectory.
The USD/JPY pair continues to remain under strong bearish pressure on Friday, having refreshed its 10-month lows below the level of 108.00. The key driver for the pair remains sharp retreat of the greenback against its major competitors, which in turn was provoked yesterday by the positive response of the market to the press conference of ECB President M.Draghi, as the head of regulator hinted on a possible QE program tapering in October. Moreover, market’s expectations of another this year Fed rate hike continue to fade away, as yesterday’s speech of Fed Member W.Dudley failed to provide any details regarding further Fed monetary policy tightening measures. Adding to this, increasing nervousness amid investors on the back of expectations of another North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile launch, expected this Saturday, boosts demand for traditional safe-haven assets, such as the yen, that also adds some pressure on the pair at the end of this week. Today the economic calendar will remain broadly silent, as the US economy will publish only secondary tier data reports, so further US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.
The USD/CAD pair extends its strong bearish trend on Friday, posting losses for the fourth consecutive session. Currently the pair is trading within striking distance of its more than 2-year lows, located at 1.2062 level, as the US dollar continues to lose points across the market at the end of this week. Meanwhile, investors are still digesting Wednesday’s surprise from the BOC, which unexpectedly increased its interest rate by 0.25%, thereby strongly boosting demand for the Loonie. Adding to this, positive price dynamics of oil prices also underpins sentiments around commodity-linked Canadian currency at the last working day of this week. Looking ahead, today the US economy won’t release anything noteworthy, while the Canadian docket contains important data from labor market, which will bring fresh trading opportunities to investors during NA session.
The GBP/USD pair follows the rest of the market today, extending its trip into the positive territory for the fourth consecutive territory. Recent pair’s bullish rally is mainly driven by softer tone of the US dollar, additionally weighed yesterday by sharp retreat against its European competitor, after press conference of ECB President M.Draghi. Moreover, decreasing chances of Fed rate hike by the end of the year also negatively affect the dollar lately, which in turn appears positive factor for the GBP/USD pair. Now immediate focus shifts toward the slew of UK economic reports, featuring manufacturing productions and trade balance data, while the US data calendar will remain broadly silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of US dollar price actions during the New York trades.
The main events of the day:
UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Canadian Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1851 R. 1.2143
USDJPY S. 107.37 R. 109.81
GBPUSD S. 1.2999 R. 1.3165
USDCHF S. 0.9430 R. 0.9630
AUDUSD S. 0.7948 R. 0.8096
NZDUSD S. 0.7146 R. 0.7284
USDCAD S. 1.2023 R. 1.2287
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