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Thursday, September 7th
The EUR/USD pair came out of its overnight phase of consolidation to the upside, having refreshed its daily tops at 1.1944 on the back of continuing retreat of the buck against its main competitors. However, further sharp moves of the pair are unlikely amid increased nervousness of investors ahead of the key ECB policy event. Expected that the ECB will keep its policy stance unchanged, while investors are awaiting for ECB President M.Draghi’s Q&A session, which will be able to shed some light on further ECB monetary policy steps. The key topic that investors would like to hear about during ECB Press Conference remains QE program tapering. More hawkish comments of ECB President M.Draghi might spark fresh speculations regarding divergence between the ECB and Fed, which will cause increased volatility level across the market. Besides the ECB meeting, nothing important is scheduled in economic calendar for the pair, so investors will keep their attention focused on the key event of this day.
The CAD/USD pair consolidates its yesterday’s enormous rally, backed by unexpected hawkish BoC decision, remaining in the area of 1.2230. Yesterday the pair slumped for about 260 points, having once again refreshed its 2-year lows at 1.2142 spot, after the BoC increased its rate for 25bp to 1%, while the market was expecting for more or less neutral outcome of the meeting. However, market participants managed to revers part of pair’s sharp drop, sending the pair to its current level. The Bank explained its decision by the fact that the Canada is showing stronger-than-expected economic growth lately and it would reasonable to remove some of the monetary policy stimulus. Moreover, ongoing retreat of the US dollar against its main competitors also adds some pressure on the pair this Thursday. Looking ahead, today all investors’ attention will remain focused on Canadian Ivey PMI report and oil inventories by the US EIA, while the market will continue to digest recent rate hike of the BoC that will keep the pair under the pressure.
The GBP/USD pair shows lackluster trading activity so far this session, keeping its positions in the comfort zone around the level of 1.3040. Seems that investors are refraining of placing any directional bets amid increased cautiousness ahead of the first debate on the Brexit bill in the UK’s parliament. Today Brexit divorce bill will be debated for the first time, giving UK PM T.May’s opponents an opportunity to express their opinion regarding this issue, which in turn may add some uncertainty around main Brexit negotiations. Adding to this, upcoming key event of this Thursday – ECB monetary policy decision also adds some cautiousness across the FX space, as it will be able to boost volatility across the market. On the data front, today we will have pretty quiet data session, as both economies will bring only secondary data reports, which expectedly will have minor influence on GBP/USD, so broad market trend will continue to navigate the pair on Thursday.
The AUD/USD pair remains offered on Thursday, failing to keep its positions above its key support level of 0.8000. The pair came under renewed selling pressure in Asia, wiping out its yesterday’s gains, after Australian retail sales data and trade balance missed market’s expectations. Adding to this, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to put pressure on risk appetite, thereby limiting pair’s chances on recovery. Even prevailing bullish sentiments on the commodity market remain unable to stall pair's downside slide. Today nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the US data calendar for the major, so broad risk sentiments and the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair throughout this Thursday.
The main events of the day:
ECB Interest Rate Decision – 14.15 (GMT +3)
ECB Press Conference – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canadian Ivey PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Crude Oil Inventories – 18.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1876 R. 1.1991
USDJPY S. 108.07 R. 109.97
GBPUSD S. 1.2983 R. 1.3111
USDCHF S. 0.9504 R. 0.9614
AUDUSD S. 0.7937 R. 0.8051
NZDUSD S. 0.7141 R. 0.7289
USDCAD S. 1.1966 R. 1.2544
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