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Friday, August 25th
The EUR/USD pair trades with bearish bias at the end of this week, extending its retreat below the level of 1.1800, having barely reacted on positive data from the German economy. Retreat of the pair is mainly attributed to broad US dollar correction, while typical cautiousness ahead of important event is limiting pair’s chances on recovery, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets. The key events of this day remain speeches delivered by Fed Chair J.Yellen and ECB President Draghi at the Jackson Hole economic forum. Markets awaits that both heads of regulators will point out on monetary policy courses of Banks, which will strongly boost speculations on the divergence between the Fed and ECB. In addition to Jackson Hole Symposium, the US economy will release durable goods data in early NA session, which will also be able to bring some directional impetus to the pair in the day ahead.
The GBP/USD pair remains largely unchanged at the end of this week that clearly shows that the market still keeps cautious stance on the back of the upcoming second round of Jackson Hole Symposium. Today investors eagerly await for Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech, as it may contain some fresh hints on further Fed monetary policy course, which in turn will have a significant impact on the US dollar. Moreover, renewed jitters regarding Brexit negotiations and ongoing uncertainty on the US political field are negatively affecting demand for higher-yielding assets, thereby keeping the pair capped near the level of 1.2800 at the end of this week. Besides the economic symposium, investors will also pay attention to the US Core Durable Goods Orders report, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities to market participant during the NA session.
The USD/JPY pair keeps bid tone for the second session in a row, as mild correction of the US dollar continues to influence the market. However, the pair couldn’t to keep its positions and had retreated lower by the European opening, after having faced resistance near the level of 110.00, as better-than-expected Japanese CPI figures supported the yen. Adding to this, persisting nervousness ahead of much-awaited speech by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole Symposium, which may shed some light on Fed further monetary policy steps, will keep pair’s further gains capped. Today investors will also pay attention to the release of US durable goods orders, which are scheduled on the NA session, however, it is expected that the reaction on it will be limited amid broad market’s cautiousness.
The USD/CAD pair extends its multiday streak of losses for the third consecutive session, refreshing its 4-week lows at the level of 1.2500, despite broad US dollar correction. It seems that ongoing uncertainty on the US political field, triggered by Tuesday’s US President D.Trump’s threat to close down the US government in order to approve funding for a wall build with Mexico, is still weighing on the pair. Adding to this, ongoing recovery of oil prices are lending support to the commodity-linked Loonie, thereby also collaborating with pair’s retreat. Looking ahead, today all traders’ attention will remain focused on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where head bankers will talk on monetary policies issues, while widespread cautiousness will restrain investors from making any important decisions.
The main events of the day:
German Ifo Business Climate Index – 11.00 (GMT +3)
US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech – 17.00 (GMT +3)
ECB President M.Draghi’s speech – 22.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1766 R. 1.1834
USDJPY S. 108.57 R. 110.09
GBPUSD S. 1.2740 R. 1.2866
USDCHF S. 0.9599 R. 0.9695
AUDUSD S. 0.7844 R. 0.7944
NZDUSD S. 0.7167 R. 0.7255
USDCAD S. 1.2483 R. 1.2579
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