On Thursday, oil prices showed a slight decrease, without leaving the range between the levels of 53.00, 51.00 dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil. A wider range is located between the levels of 53.40, 50.0 dollars per barrel, in which Brent crude is traded last month.
On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Ministry reported a drop in commercial oil and gasoline reserves in the country. Thus, crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels (forecast was -3.375 million barrels), gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels last week (the forecast was 500,000 barrels). As a result, oil prices rose on Wednesday. Oil futures on the NYMEX closed up by 1.21% at $ 48.41 per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the end of yesterday's trading day was close to $ 52.20 per barrel, which is about $ 1.0 higher than the previous closing price.
Nevertheless, significant price increases are not observed, despite the risks of interruptions in the work of US refineries associated with the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and the reduction in oil and oil products in the United States.
Prospects of growth in oil production in the US have a negative impact on oil prices. World oil supply in July, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), rose by 520,000 barrels a day, even despite the arrangements in OPEC. Growth in the supply of oil has been observed for 3 consecutive months.
The activity of US oil companies is growing, significantly offsetting OPEC's efforts to reduce oil production and exports.
Today and tomorrow, investors will follow the speeches of the leaders of the Fed and the ECB at a conference in Jackson Hole on the plans of the central banks to tighten monetary policy. If Janet Yellen signals the markets about the possibility of another increase in the interest rate this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. Commodity prices, including oil, will come under pressure in this case.
On Friday at 5:00 pm (GMT), Baker Hughes, the oil service company, will publish a weekly report on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the US oil sector and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. If the number of installations increases again, this will also negatively affect oil prices.
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Support and resistance levels
The price for Brent crude was in the range between levels of 53.40, 50.0 dollars per barrel in August. Despite today's decline, the price keeps positive dynamics above the key support levels of 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), 50.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts again moved to the side of buyers.
If the growth continues, the target will be 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 53.40 (August highs), 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the upper bound of the rising channel on the daily chart).
The scenario for the decline involves a breakdown at the level of 50.70. The targets then will be support levels of 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). A more distant target is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower border of the descending channel on the weekly chart), which increases the risks of price return in the bearish trend.
Support levels: 51.30, 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.70
Trading Scenarios
Sell by the market. Stop-Loss 52.35. Take-Profit 51.30, 50.90, 50.70, 50.00, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20
Buy Stop 52.35. Stop-Loss 51.70. Take-Profit 52.90, 53.40, 54.00, 54.75
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