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Thursday, August 24th
Seems that the EUR/USD pair corrects lower today, slipping below the level of 1.1800, as traders lock in some profits after yesterday’s minor rally, backed by positive German Services PMI data and slightly hawkish talks of ECB Chief M.Draghi. Adding to this, pickup in the US dollar demand remains one of the key navigators across the market that also weighs on the major currency pair on Thursday. Now all attention shifts towards the key event of this week - Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver their speeches. The market will look closely at the speeches of both heads of regulators for fresh insight on Fed's monetary policy tightening plans and on possible QE program tapering by the ECB, which will be able to shape up pair’s next near-term trajectory. Also today, the US will release existing home sales data, which will be able to provide additional impetus to the pair during the NA session.
The GBP/USD pair extends its negative bias for the third session in a row, remaining near its 2-month lows, marked earlier this session at 1.2774 spot. Pair’s retreat is mostly attributed to ongoing nervousness amid the market, as we are heading towards the key event of this week - Jackson Hole Symposium. Moreover, renewed concerns over the Brexit, backed by recent headlines that the UK is softening its Brexit stance, and bid tone around the US dollar also pressure the pair this Thursday. Besides the Jackson Hole Symposium, today investors will also pay attention to the UK flash GDP report and another data from the US housing market, however, it is expected that the reaction on the fundamentals will be limited amid broad market’s cautiousness.
The NZD/USD pair looks depressed in the second half of this week, as ongoing risk-off trend keeps pressuring on the higher-yielding assets lately. The Kiwi remained unimpressed by green numbers of NZ trade balance, as today we are witnessing typical scenario ahead of a highly influential macro event, where market participants refrain from placing any directional bets, which in turn is negatively affecting more risky assets. Adding to this, slightly increased demand for the US dollar is also weighing the pair, keeping its positions within striking distance of 6-week lows, marked yesterday just a few pips below the level of 0.7200. Looking ahead, today all investors’ attention will remain glued to Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair J.Yellen will be able to shed some light on the further Fed monetary policy path and determine near-term course of the greenback.
The dollar/yen pair corrected slightly higher in Asia, having regained the level of 109.00, on the back of better sentiments surrounding the dollar. However, the pair continues to trade under pressure today, as strong risk aversions, triggered by US President D.Trump’s recent threat to shut down the US government in order to build wall with Mexico and upcoming key event of this week, are underpinning demand for safety across the market. Meanwhile, all attention remains on Jackson Hole economic symposium, where J.Yellen’s comments will be closely eyed for next directional impetus on the US dollar. It is also worth noting that the US will release today Existing Home Sales report, while Japan will publish inflation figures during next Asian session, which also may bring some trading opportunities to the pair.
The main events of the day:
UK prelim. GDP – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1705 R. 1.1873
USDJPY S. 108.36 R. 110.16
GBPUSD S. 1.2749 R. 1.2857
USDCHF S. 0.9608 R. 0.9720
AUDUSD S. 0.7866 R. 0.7934
NZDUSD S. 0.7149 R. 0.7319
USDCAD S. 1.2504 R. 1.2620
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