Pound Drops as Brexit Timeline Emerges, US Dollar Eyes ISM Data
Pound Drops as Brexit Timeline Emerges, US Dollar Eyes ISM Data
Talking Points:
- British Pound declines as UK PM May establishes Brexit processtimeline
- Aussie, NZ Dollars retrace after Deutsche Bank inspired gains on Friday
- US Dollar may rise if supportive ISM data boosts Fed rate hike outlook
The British Pound declined gapped lower at the open of the trading week after UK Prime Minister TheresaMay pledged to get on with making Brexit a reality, pledging to trigger Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by the end of the first quarter of 2017. Doing so will formally begin a two-year debate on the severing of the existing UK/EU relationship and the establishment of a new one.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars likewise declined in a move that seemed corrective following Friday’s strong advance. That move tracked a broad-based recovery in risk appetite after Agence France-Presse reported that Deutsche Bank (DB) is close to settlement on a $5.4 billion fine with the US Department of Justice (DOJ), a far more manageable sum than the $14 billion initially demanded by regulators.
Deutsche-related news flow may remain in the spotlight as CEO John Cryan travels to the US to finalize negotiations. September’s ISM Manufacturing survey takes top billing on the data docket, with consensus forecasts suggesting the US factory sector returned to growth last month after an unexpected contraction in August. An upbeat result that bolsters Fed rate hike speculation may broadly boost the US Dollar.
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Asia Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
22:30 | AiG Perf of Mfg Index (SEP) | 49.8 | - | 46.9 | |
23:00 | AUD | CoreLogic House Px (MoM) (SEP) | 1.0% | - | 1.1% |
23:50 | Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (AUG) | 2.11% | - | 2.25% | |
23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Mfg Index (3Q) | 6 | 7 | 6 |
23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (3Q) | 6 | 8 | 6 |
23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index (3Q) | 18 | 18 | 19 |
23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook (3Q) | 16 | 18 | 17 |
23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q) | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% |
23:50 | JPY | Tankan Small Mfg Index (3Q) | -5 | -5 | -5 |
23:50 | JPY | Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (3Q) | -6 | -6 | -7 |
23:50 | JPY | Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index (3Q) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
23:50 | JPY | Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (3Q) | -2 | -2 | -4 |
00:00 | AUD | Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (SEP) | - | - | 0.2% |
00:00 | AUD | Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (SEP) | - | - | 1.2% |
00:30 | JPY | NikkeiJapan PMI Mfg (SEP F ) | - | - | 50.3 |
05:00 | JPY | Vehicle Sales (YoY) (SEP) | - | - | 5.7% |
European Session
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT | |
07:15 | Retail Sales Real (YoY) (AUG) | -1.7% | -2.2% | |||
07:30 | CHF | PMI Mfg (SEP) | 51.8 | 51 | ||
07:50 | Markit France Mfg PMI (SEP F) | 49.5 | 49.5 | |||
07:55 | EUR | Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (SEP F) | 54.3 | 54.3 | ||
08:00 | CHF | Total Sight Deposits (SEP 30) | - | 517.2b | ||
08:00 | CHF | Domestic Sight Deposits (SEP 30) | - | 444.6b | ||
08:00 | EUR | Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (SEP) | 52.6 | 52.6 | ||
08:30 | Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (SEP) | 52.1 | 53.3 | |||
Critical Levels
CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
1.1017 | 1.1115 | 1.1175 | 1.1213 | 1.1273 | 1.1311 | 1.1409 | |
1.2805 | 1.2891 | 1.2932 | 1.2977 | 1.3018 | 1.3063 | 1.3149 |
