Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (August 8 - 12, 2016)
7 August 2016, 19:16
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Here’s the market outlook for this week: Content courtesy of Tallinex Limited https://www.tallinex.com
EURUSDDominant bias: Bearish
The bullish run started in the last week of July could not be sustained. Price made a faint bullish effort on Monday and Tuesday - moving briefly above the resistance line at 1.1200 and reaching the weekly high of 1.1231 before declining 180 pips to close above the resistance line at 1.1050 (which was tested before market close on Friday). Since the bias is now bearish, further decline is possible, which may take price towards the support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000 before a brief reversal. For the support line at 1.1000 to be broken, very strong bearish pressure will be required.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although price climbed 180 pips since Wednesday, bears are still very active. For the bias to turn bullish, at least another 200 pips upside is required, which requires strong bullish pressure. Upward movement in the context of a down-trend is anticipated this week, so bearish presence should not be ignored - they will grasp any opportunity to push price lower.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bias on 4-hour and daily charts is bearish, but the market was flat on Monday, went up on Tuesday, went flat again on Wednesday, and then headed south on Thursday and Friday. A Bearish Confirmation Pattern exists, and GBP is expected to be weak versus most major currencies this week. While price is expected to decline, it will encounter extremely recalcitrant accumulation territories along the way to challenge the bearish outlook.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
August 2 saw the only trending movement last week - the rest was consolidation. The market closed on Friday with bulls growing impatient with the existing situation; though their impatience achieved nothing more than a short-term rally, as the bias is bearish and further decline is anticipated. The demand levels at 101.00, 100.50 and 100.00 will be interesting to watch this week.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Price went gradually south last week - managing to record another 200 pip decline. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern for this pair (and a bearish outlook on JPY pairs, generally), so price is expected to continue south by at least 200 pips. Long trades are not advised until the market situation changes.
I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:
“Instead of trying to figure out why markets moved, ignore that and look for more trading opportunities!” - Rick Wright
Azeez Mustapha
Currency Analyst
Tallinex Limited
The Jaycees Building, Stoney Ground
PO Box 362, Kingstown, VC0100
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